Win, draw and score chances for Mauritania v Burkina Faso, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mauritania win | 36.1% |
| Draw | 31.5% |
| Burkina Faso win | 32.4% |
| Mauritania or draw (1X) | 67.6% |
| Burkina Faso or draw (X2) | 63.9% |
| Mauritania or Burkina Faso (12) | 68.5% |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% |
| Mauritania clean sheet | 39.5% |
| Burkina Faso clean sheet | 36.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mauritania 0-0 Burkina Faso | 14.6% |
| Mauritania 1-0 Burkina Faso | 14.5% |
| Mauritania 0-1 Burkina Faso | 13.5% |
| Mauritania 1-1 Burkina Faso | 13.5% |
| Mauritania 2-0 Burkina Faso | 7.3% |
| Mauritania 2-1 Burkina Faso | 6.7% |
| Mauritania 0-2 Burkina Faso | 6.3% |
| Mauritania 1-2 Burkina Faso | 6.3% |
| Stat | Mauritania | Burkina Faso | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.93 |
| Corners | 3.8 | 4.6 | 8.5 |
| Shots | 8.1 | 7.9 | 16.0 |
| Shots on target | 2.9 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| Fouls | 13.5 | 16.5 | 29.9 |
| Tackles | 16.6 | 15.1 | 31.7 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 13.0% | 87.0% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 8.9% | 91.2% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 13.1% | 86.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 5.8% | 94.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 2.2% | 97.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.7% | 99.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 14.8% | 85.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 8.1% | 91.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 24.7% | 75.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 12.3% | 87.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 5.4% | 94.6% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 94.5% | 5.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.8% | 0.2% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 90.3% | 9.7% |
Our model makes Mauritania favourites in Mauritania v Burkina Faso on Tuesday 17 November, with a 36% chance of a home win, 32% for the draw and 32% for Burkina Faso, from projected goals of 1.00 for Mauritania and 0.93 for Burkina Faso.
The most likely score in Mauritania v Burkina Faso is 0-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-0 at 15% and 0-1 at 14%, from our model's projection of 1.00 goals for Mauritania and 0.93 for Burkina Faso, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Mauritania v Burkina Faso, at 38% yes and 62% no, with Mauritania keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and Burkina Faso 37%, from projected goals of 1.00 and 0.93.
Our model projects 1.93 goals in Mauritania v Burkina Faso, with over 1.5 goals at 57% and over 2.5 at 30%, and one goal the likeliest total at 28%.
Our model expects 8.5 corners in Mauritania v Burkina Faso on Tuesday 17 November, 3.8 for Mauritania and 4.6 for Burkina Faso, putting over 7.5 corners at 61% and over 8.5 at 47%.
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards in Mauritania v Burkina Faso on Tuesday 17 November, 1.6 for Mauritania and 1.8 for Burkina Faso, putting over 2.5 cards at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%.
The Mauritania v Burkina Faso simulation turns our projections of 1.00 goals for Mauritania and 0.93 for Burkina Faso into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.