Win, draw and score chances for Rwanda v Mali, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rwanda win | 19.5% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
| Mali win | 50.4% |
| Rwanda or draw (1X) | 49.6% |
| Mali or draw (X2) | 80.5% |
| Rwanda or Mali (12) | 69.9% |
| Both teams to score | 33.7% |
| Rwanda clean sheet | 29.2% |
| Mali clean sheet | 52.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rwanda 0-1 Mali | 18.9% |
| Rwanda 0-0 Mali | 15.3% |
| Rwanda 1-1 Mali | 12.2% |
| Rwanda 0-2 Mali | 11.6% |
| Rwanda 1-0 Mali | 9.9% |
| Rwanda 1-2 Mali | 7.5% |
| Rwanda 0-3 Mali | 4.8% |
| Rwanda 2-1 Mali | 3.9% |
| Stat | Rwanda | Mali | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.65 | 1.23 | 1.88 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 4.7 | 8.5 |
| Shots | 6.2 | 10.0 | 16.2 |
| Shots on target | 2.2 | 3.6 | 5.8 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Fouls | 13.6 | 13.2 | 26.8 |
| Tackles | 13.2 | 15.3 | 28.4 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 12.1% | 87.9% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 14.9% | 85.2% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 8.9% | 91.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 27.1% | 73.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 6.3% | 93.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 36.2% | 63.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 13.3% | 86.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 7.1% | 92.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 3.5% | 96.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 32.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 45.5% | 54.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 92.5% | 7.5% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 84.6% | 15.4% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.5% | 2.5% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 76.5% | 23.5% |
Our model makes Mali favourites in Rwanda v Mali on Tuesday 17 November, with a 50% chance of an away win, 30% for the draw and 20% for Rwanda, from projected goals of 1.23 for Mali and 0.65 for Rwanda.
The most likely score in Rwanda v Mali is 0-1 at 19%, ahead of 0-0 at 15% and 1-1 at 12%, from our model's projection of 0.65 goals for Rwanda and 1.23 for Mali, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Rwanda v Mali, at 34% yes and 66% no, with Rwanda keeping a clean sheet 29% of the time and Mali 52%, from projected goals of 0.65 and 1.23.
Our model projects 1.88 goals in Rwanda v Mali, with over 1.5 goals at 56% and over 2.5 at 29%, and one goal the likeliest total at 29%.
Our model expects 8.5 corners in Rwanda v Mali on Tuesday 17 November, 3.7 for Rwanda and 4.7 for Mali, putting over 7.5 corners at 61% and over 8.5 at 47%.
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards in Rwanda v Mali on Tuesday 17 November, 1.9 for Rwanda and 1.5 for Mali, putting over 2.5 cards at 67% and over 3.5 at 45%.
The Rwanda v Mali simulation turns our projections of 0.65 goals for Rwanda and 1.23 for Mali into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.