Win, draw and score chances for Algeria v Togo, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Algeria win | 73.4% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
| Togo win | 8.5% |
| Algeria or draw (1X) | 91.5% |
| Togo or draw (X2) | 26.6% |
| Algeria or Togo (12) | 81.9% |
| Both teams to score | 36.7% |
| Algeria clean sheet | 58.0% |
| Togo clean sheet | 12.5% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Algeria 2-0 Togo | 15.7% |
| Algeria 1-0 Togo | 15.1% |
| Algeria 3-0 Togo | 10.9% |
| Algeria 2-1 Togo | 8.5% |
| Algeria 1-1 Togo | 8.2% |
| Algeria 0-0 Togo | 7.3% |
| Algeria 3-1 Togo | 5.9% |
| Algeria 4-0 Togo | 5.6% |
| Stat | Algeria | Togo | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.08 | 0.54 | 2.62 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 3.7 | 9.2 |
| Shots | 11.7 | 6.8 | 18.5 |
| Shots on target | 4.6 | 2.5 | 7.1 |
| Yellow cards | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Fouls | 14.8 | 12.0 | 26.8 |
| Tackles | 14.8 | 15.1 | 29.9 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 73.7% | 26.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43.5% | 56.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 21.3% | 78.7% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 13.7% | 86.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 17.3% | 82.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 8.6% | 91.5% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 3.7% | 96.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 56.0% | 44.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 41.1% | 59.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 10.3% | 89.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 22.1% | 77.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 4.5% | 95.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 84.7% | 15.3% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 58.7% | 41.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
Our model makes Algeria favourites in Algeria v Togo on Saturday 14 November, with a 73% chance of a home win, 18% for the draw and 9% for Togo, from projected goals of 2.08 for Algeria and 0.54 for Togo.
The most likely score in Algeria v Togo is 2-0 at 16%, ahead of 1-0 at 15% and 3-0 at 11%, from our model's projection of 2.08 goals for Algeria and 0.54 for Togo, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Algeria v Togo, at 37% yes and 63% no, with Algeria keeping a clean sheet 58% of the time and Togo 13%, from projected goals of 2.08 and 0.54.
Our model projects 2.62 goals in Algeria v Togo, with over 2.5 goals at 49% and over 3.5 at 27%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 9.2 corners in Algeria v Togo on Saturday 14 November, 5.4 for Algeria and 3.7 for Togo, putting over 8.5 corners at 57% and over 9.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards in Algeria v Togo on Saturday 14 November, 1.6 for Algeria and 1.7 for Togo, putting over 2.5 cards at 62% and over 3.5 at 40%.
The Algeria v Togo simulation turns our projections of 2.08 goals for Algeria and 0.54 for Togo into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.