Win, draw and score chances for Port Vale v Accrington, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 42.5% |
| Draw | 30.4% |
| Accrington win | 27.1% |
| Port Vale or draw (1X) | 72.9% |
| Accrington or draw (X2) | 57.5% |
| Port Vale or Accrington (12) | 69.6% |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% |
| Port Vale clean sheet | 38.2% |
| Accrington clean sheet | 28.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Port Vale 1-1 Accrington | 14.1% |
| Port Vale 1-0 Accrington | 12.6% |
| Port Vale 0-0 Accrington | 11.7% |
| Port Vale 0-1 Accrington | 9.3% |
| Port Vale 2-0 Accrington | 8.7% |
| Port Vale 2-1 Accrington | 8.3% |
| Port Vale 1-2 Accrington | 6.3% |
| Port Vale 0-2 Accrington | 5.0% |
| Stat | Port Vale | Accrington | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 | 0.96 | 2.24 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 4.3 | 9.8 |
| Shots | 12.5 | 10.7 | 23.2 |
| Shots on target | 4.2 | 3.5 | 7.7 |
| Yellow cards | 2.0 | 2.4 | 4.3 |
| Fouls | 10.4 | 11.6 | 22.0 |
| Tackles | 13.3 | 15.7 | 29.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 88.3% | 11.7% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 18.8% | 81.2% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 28.4% | 71.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.2% | 80.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 38.5% | 61.6% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 24.3% | 75.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 19.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 14.7% | 85.3% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 22.6% | 77.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 95.0% | 5.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
Our model makes Port Vale favourites in Port Vale v Accrington on Saturday 14 November, with a 43% chance of a home win, 30% for the draw and 27% for Accrington, from projected goals of 1.27 for Port Vale and 0.96 for Accrington.
The most likely score in Port Vale v Accrington is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 13% and 0-0 at 12%, from our model's projection of 1.27 goals for Port Vale and 0.96 for Accrington, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Port Vale v Accrington, at 46% yes and 55% no, with Port Vale keeping a clean sheet 38% of the time and Accrington 28%, from projected goals of 1.27 and 0.96.
Our model projects 2.24 goals in Port Vale v Accrington, with over 1.5 goals at 66% and over 2.5 at 39%, and two goals the likeliest total at 28%.
Our model expects 9.8 corners in Port Vale v Accrington on Saturday 14 November, 5.5 for Port Vale and 4.3 for Accrington, putting over 9.5 corners at 52% and over 10.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards in Port Vale v Accrington on Saturday 14 November, 2.0 for Port Vale and 2.4 for Accrington, putting over 3.5 cards at 63% and over 4.5 at 43%.
The Port Vale v Accrington simulation turns our projections of 1.27 goals for Port Vale and 0.96 for Accrington into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.