Win, draw and score chances for Romania v Poland, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Romania win | 25.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Poland win | 50.8% |
| Romania or draw (1X) | 49.2% |
| Poland or draw (X2) | 74.7% |
| Romania or Poland (12) | 76.1% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% |
| Romania clean sheet | 18.0% |
| Poland clean sheet | 32.0% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Romania 1-1 Poland | 11.3% |
| Romania 0-1 Poland | 9.9% |
| Romania 1-2 Poland | 9.7% |
| Romania 0-2 Poland | 8.5% |
| Romania 1-0 Poland | 6.6% |
| Romania 2-1 Poland | 6.4% |
| Romania 0-0 Poland | 5.8% |
| Romania 1-3 Poland | 5.5% |
| Stat | Romania | Poland | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 1.71 | 2.85 |
| Corners | 3.9 | 4.9 | 8.8 |
| Shots | 11.3 | 15.5 | 26.8 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 5.4 | 9.2 |
| Yellow cards | 2.3 | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| Fouls | 13.4 | 11.5 | 24.9 |
| Tackles | 13.4 | 15.0 | 28.3 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.2% | 5.8% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 17.7% | 82.4% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 89.1% | 10.9% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 81.2% | 18.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 32.0% | 68.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 18.3% | 81.7% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 86.0% | 14.0% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 74.4% | 25.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.1% | 0.9% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.4% | 2.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
Our model makes Poland favourites in Romania v Poland on Saturday 14 November, with a 51% chance of an away win, 24% for the draw and 25% for Romania, from projected goals of 1.71 for Poland and 1.14 for Romania.
The most likely score in Romania v Poland is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 0-1 at 10% and 1-2 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.14 goals for Romania and 1.71 for Poland, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 56% of the outcomes our model gives Romania v Poland, making yes the likelier answer, with Romania keeping a clean sheet 18% of the time and Poland 32%, from projected goals of 1.14 and 1.71.
Our model projects 2.85 goals in Romania v Poland, with over 2.5 goals at 54% and over 3.5 at 32%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 8.8 corners in Romania v Poland on Saturday 14 November, 3.9 for Romania and 4.9 for Poland, putting over 8.5 corners at 52% and over 9.5 at 38%.
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards in Romania v Poland on Saturday 14 November, 2.3 for Romania and 2.3 for Poland, putting over 4.5 cards at 49% and over 5.5 at 32%.
The Romania v Poland simulation turns our projections of 1.14 goals for Romania and 1.71 for Poland into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.