Win, draw and score chances for Sweden v Bosnia, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sweden win | 62.6% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Bosnia win | 16.6% |
| Sweden or draw (1X) | 83.4% |
| Bosnia or draw (X2) | 37.4% |
| Sweden or Bosnia (12) | 79.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 39.6% |
| Bosnia clean sheet | 13.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sweden 2-0 Bosnia | 10.7% |
| Sweden 1-0 Bosnia | 10.6% |
| Sweden 2-1 Bosnia | 9.9% |
| Sweden 1-1 Bosnia | 9.9% |
| Sweden 3-0 Bosnia | 7.2% |
| Sweden 3-1 Bosnia | 6.7% |
| Sweden 0-0 Bosnia | 5.3% |
| Sweden 0-1 Bosnia | 4.9% |
| Stat | Sweden | Bosnia | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.01 | 0.93 | 2.94 |
| Corners | 5.1 | 3.7 | 8.8 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 9.7 | 24.9 |
| Shots on target | 6.0 | 3.4 | 9.4 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 13.6 | 25.2 |
| Tackles | 13.0 | 14.0 | 27.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 26.6% | 73.4% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 10.7% | 89.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 90.4% | 9.6% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 20.8% | 79.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 10.6% | 89.4% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 87.4% | 12.6% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 62.0% | 38.1% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 95.5% | 4.5% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 89.8% | 10.3% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
Our model makes Sweden favourites in Sweden v Bosnia on Saturday 14 November, with a 62% chance of a home win, 21% for the draw and 17% for Bosnia, from projected goals of 2.01 for Sweden and 0.93 for Bosnia.
The most likely score in Sweden v Bosnia is 2-0 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 at 11% and 2-1 at 10%, from our model's projection of 2.01 goals for Sweden and 0.93 for Bosnia, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 52% of the outcomes our model gives Sweden v Bosnia, making yes the likelier answer, with Sweden keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and Bosnia 13%, from projected goals of 2.01 and 0.93.
Our model projects 2.94 goals in Sweden v Bosnia, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 8.8 corners in Sweden v Bosnia on Saturday 14 November, 5.1 for Sweden and 3.7 for Bosnia, putting over 8.5 corners at 51% and over 9.5 at 38%.
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards in Sweden v Bosnia on Saturday 14 November, 1.7 for Sweden and 2.3 for Bosnia, putting over 3.5 cards at 56% and over 4.5 at 36%.
The Sweden v Bosnia simulation turns our projections of 2.01 goals for Sweden and 0.93 for Bosnia into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.