Win, draw and score chances for Poland v Sweden, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Poland win | 43.4% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Sweden win | 32.5% |
| Poland or draw (1X) | 67.5% |
| Sweden or draw (X2) | 56.6% |
| Poland or Sweden (12) | 76.0% |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% |
| Poland clean sheet | 25.2% |
| Sweden clean sheet | 19.6% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Poland 1-1 Sweden | 11.1% |
| Poland 2-1 Sweden | 9.0% |
| Poland 1-0 Sweden | 8.0% |
| Poland 1-2 Sweden | 7.7% |
| Poland 0-1 Sweden | 6.8% |
| Poland 2-0 Sweden | 6.6% |
| Poland 2-2 Sweden | 6.2% |
| Poland 0-0 Sweden | 4.9% |
| Stat | Poland | Sweden | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 1.38 | 3.01 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 4.6 | 9.1 |
| Shots | 11.7 | 10.6 | 22.3 |
| Shots on target | 4.5 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Fouls | 11.3 | 11.5 | 22.8 |
| Tackles | 14.4 | 12.7 | 27.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 95.1% | 4.9% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 18.6% | 81.4% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 69.2% | 30.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 13.4% | 86.6% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 18.5% | 81.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 16.8% | 83.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 8.1% | 92.0% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 43.2% | 56.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 95.6% | 4.4% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Our model makes Poland favourites in Poland v Sweden on Tuesday 17 November, with a 43% chance of a home win, 24% for the draw and 33% for Sweden, from projected goals of 1.63 for Poland and 1.38 for Sweden.
The most likely score in Poland v Sweden is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 at 9% and 1-0 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.63 goals for Poland and 1.38 for Sweden, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 60% of the outcomes our model gives Poland v Sweden, making yes the likelier answer, with Poland keeping a clean sheet 25% of the time and Sweden 20%, from projected goals of 1.63 and 1.38.
Our model projects 3.01 goals in Poland v Sweden, with over 2.5 goals at 58% and over 3.5 at 35%, and two and three goals the likeliest totals at 22% each.
Our model expects 9.1 corners in Poland v Sweden on Tuesday 17 November, 4.5 for Poland and 4.6 for Sweden, putting over 8.5 corners at 56% and over 9.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards in Poland v Sweden on Tuesday 17 November, 1.9 for Poland and 1.8 for Sweden, putting over 3.5 cards at 50% and over 4.5 at 31%.
The Poland v Sweden simulation turns our projections of 1.63 goals for Poland and 1.38 for Sweden into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.