Win, draw and score chances for Norway v Wales, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Norway win | 70.4% |
| Draw | 17.0% |
| Wales win | 12.6% |
| Norway or draw (1X) | 87.4% |
| Wales or draw (X2) | 29.6% |
| Norway or Wales (12) | 83.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% |
| Norway clean sheet | 39.3% |
| Wales clean sheet | 8.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Norway 2-0 Wales | 10.2% |
| Norway 2-1 Wales | 9.5% |
| Norway 1-0 Wales | 8.4% |
| Norway 3-0 Wales | 8.3% |
| Norway 1-1 Wales | 7.8% |
| Norway 3-1 Wales | 7.7% |
| Norway 4-0 Wales | 5.0% |
| Norway 4-1 Wales | 4.7% |
| Stat | Norway | Wales | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.43 | 0.93 | 3.37 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 3.9 | 9.2 |
| Shots | 17.8 | 8.5 | 26.2 |
| Shots on target | 6.6 | 3.2 | 9.7 |
| Yellow cards | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
| Fouls | 10.2 | 10.7 | 20.9 |
| Tackles | 12.8 | 14.7 | 27.5 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 96.6% | 3.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 85.0% | 15.1% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 22.1% | 78.0% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 14.2% | 85.8% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.1% | 6.0% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 87.1% | 13.0% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 76.2% | 23.8% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 75.4% | 24.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 16.1% | 83.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 7.9% | 92.1% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
Our model makes Norway favourites in Norway v Wales on Saturday 14 November, with a 70% chance of a home win, 17% for the draw and 13% for Wales, from projected goals of 2.43 for Norway and 0.93 for Wales.
The most likely score in Norway v Wales is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 8%, from our model's projection of 2.43 goals for Norway and 0.93 for Wales, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 55% of the outcomes our model gives Norway v Wales, making yes the likelier answer, with Norway keeping a clean sheet 39% of the time and Wales 9%, from projected goals of 2.43 and 0.93.
Our model projects 3.37 goals in Norway v Wales, with over 2.5 goals at 65% and over 3.5 at 43%, and three goals the likeliest total at 22%.
Our model expects 9.2 corners in Norway v Wales on Saturday 14 November, 5.3 for Norway and 3.9 for Wales, putting over 8.5 corners at 58% and over 9.5 at 44%.
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards in Norway v Wales on Saturday 14 November, 1.7 for Norway and 2.0 for Wales, putting over 3.5 cards at 49% and over 4.5 at 30%.
The Norway v Wales simulation turns our projections of 2.43 goals for Norway and 0.93 for Wales into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.