Win, draw and score chances for Portugal v Denmark, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Portugal win | 60.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Denmark win | 18.5% |
| Portugal or draw (1X) | 81.5% |
| Denmark or draw (X2) | 39.9% |
| Portugal or Denmark (12) | 78.6% |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% |
| Portugal clean sheet | 37.0% |
| Denmark clean sheet | 13.9% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Portugal 1-0 Denmark | 10.1% |
| Portugal 1-1 Denmark | 10.1% |
| Portugal 2-0 Denmark | 10.0% |
| Portugal 2-1 Denmark | 10.0% |
| Portugal 3-0 Denmark | 6.6% |
| Portugal 3-1 Denmark | 6.6% |
| Portugal 0-0 Denmark | 5.1% |
| Portugal 0-1 Denmark | 5.1% |
| Stat | Portugal | Denmark | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 | 1.00 | 2.97 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 4.4 | 10.1 |
| Shots | 15.6 | 10.2 | 25.8 |
| Shots on target | 5.7 | 3.8 | 9.5 |
| Yellow cards | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Fouls | 11.6 | 10.2 | 21.8 |
| Tackles | 14.2 | 14.9 | 29.0 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.9% | 82.1% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 78.8% | 21.2% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 83.4% | 16.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 47.6% | 52.5% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 8.2% | 91.8% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.9% | 5.1% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 89.0% | 11.0% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 79.7% | 20.4% |
Our model makes Portugal favourites in Portugal v Denmark on Saturday 14 November, with a 60% chance of a home win, 21% for the draw and 19% for Denmark, from projected goals of 1.97 for Portugal and 1.00 for Denmark.
The most likely score in Portugal v Denmark is 1-0 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 at 10% and 2-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.97 goals for Portugal and 1.00 for Denmark, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 54% of the outcomes our model gives Portugal v Denmark, making yes the likelier answer, with Portugal keeping a clean sheet 37% of the time and Denmark 14%, from projected goals of 1.97 and 1.00.
Our model projects 2.97 goals in Portugal v Denmark, with over 2.5 goals at 57% and over 3.5 at 35%, and two goals the likeliest total at 23%.
Our model expects 10.1 corners in Portugal v Denmark on Saturday 14 November, 5.7 for Portugal and 4.4 for Denmark, putting over 9.5 corners at 55% and over 10.5 at 43%.
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards in Portugal v Denmark on Saturday 14 November, 1.9 for Portugal and 1.9 for Denmark, putting over 3.5 cards at 51% and over 4.5 at 31%.
The Portugal v Denmark simulation turns our projections of 1.97 goals for Portugal and 1.00 for Denmark into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.