Win, draw and score chances for Chapecoense v Vasco, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense win | 15.7% |
| Draw | 22.9% |
| Vasco win | 61.4% |
| Chapecoense or draw (1X) | 38.6% |
| Vasco or draw (X2) | 84.3% |
| Chapecoense or Vasco (12) | 77.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 13.5% |
| Vasco clean sheet | 39.4% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Chapecoense 1-1 Vasco | 10.9% |
| Chapecoense 0-2 Vasco | 10.7% |
| Chapecoense 1-2 Vasco | 9.9% |
| Chapecoense 0-1 Vasco | 9.7% |
| Chapecoense 0-3 Vasco | 7.1% |
| Chapecoense 1-3 Vasco | 6.6% |
| Chapecoense 0-0 Vasco | 6.3% |
| Chapecoense 2-2 Vasco | 4.6% |
| Stat | Chapecoense | Vasco | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.93 | 2.01 | 2.94 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.9 | 9.2 |
| Shots | 12.1 | 19.1 | 31.2 |
| Shots on target | 3.8 | 6.2 | 10.1 |
| Yellow cards | 2.2 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 11.5 | 24.3 |
| Tackles | 15.4 | 12.4 | 27.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 93.7% | 6.3% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 19.9% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.8% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 14.1% | 85.9% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 99.3% | 0.8% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 88.9% | 11.1% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 87.3% | 12.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 78.4% | 21.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 67.3% | 32.7% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 42.3% | 57.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 26.3% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 19.0% | 81.0% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 9.5% | 90.5% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 98.9% | 1.1% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 96.7% | 3.3% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 92.1% | 7.9% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Our model makes Vasco favourites in Chapecoense v Vasco on Saturday 14 November, with a 61% chance of an away win, 23% for the draw and 16% for Chapecoense, from projected goals of 2.01 for Vasco and 0.93 for Chapecoense.
The most likely score in Chapecoense v Vasco is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 0-2 at 11% and 1-2 at 10%, from our model's projection of 0.93 goals for Chapecoense and 2.01 for Vasco, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 53% of the outcomes our model gives Chapecoense v Vasco, making yes the likelier answer, with Chapecoense keeping a clean sheet 13% of the time and Vasco 39%, from projected goals of 0.93 and 2.01.
Our model projects 2.94 goals in Chapecoense v Vasco, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and over 3.5 at 34%, and two goals the likeliest total at 24%.
Our model expects 9.2 corners in Chapecoense v Vasco on Saturday 14 November, 4.3 for Chapecoense and 4.9 for Vasco, putting over 8.5 corners at 57% and over 9.5 at 44%.
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards in Chapecoense v Vasco on Saturday 14 November, 2.2 for Chapecoense and 1.7 for Vasco, putting over 3.5 cards at 53% and over 4.5 at 34%.
The Chapecoense v Vasco simulation turns our projections of 0.93 goals for Chapecoense and 2.01 for Vasco into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.