Win, draw and score chances for Corinthians v Botafogo, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Corinthians win | 48.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Botafogo win | 22.3% |
| Corinthians or draw (1X) | 77.7% |
| Botafogo or draw (X2) | 51.3% |
| Corinthians or Botafogo (12) | 71.0% |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% |
| Corinthians clean sheet | 40.0% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 23.1% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Corinthians 1-1 Botafogo | 13.7% |
| Corinthians 1-0 Botafogo | 12.3% |
| Corinthians 0-0 Botafogo | 10.5% |
| Corinthians 2-0 Botafogo | 9.9% |
| Corinthians 2-1 Botafogo | 9.1% |
| Corinthians 0-1 Botafogo | 7.2% |
| Corinthians 1-2 Botafogo | 5.7% |
| Corinthians 3-0 Botafogo | 4.8% |
| Stat | Corinthians | Botafogo | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 | 0.92 | 2.38 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 4.2 | 9.9 |
| Shots | 16.0 | 10.5 | 26.5 |
| Shots on target | 5.1 | 3.5 | 8.6 |
| Yellow cards | 1.8 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
| Fouls | 12.9 | 14.7 | 27.6 |
| Tackles | 14.6 | 14.1 | 28.7 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 9.4% | 90.7% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 65.6% | 34.4% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 19.9% | 80.1% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 49.1% | 51.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 24.8% | 75.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 83.2% | 16.8% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 66.7% | 33.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 30.6% | 69.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 17.6% | 82.4% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 94.5% | 5.5% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 78.1% | 21.9% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.8% | 2.3% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.3% | 5.7% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 87.9% | 12.1% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 78.0% | 22.0% |
Our model makes Corinthians favourites in Corinthians v Botafogo on Thursday 19 November, with a 49% chance of a home win, 29% for the draw and 22% for Botafogo, from projected goals of 1.46 for Corinthians and 0.92 for Botafogo.
The most likely score in Corinthians v Botafogo is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 at 12% and 0-0 at 10%, from our model's projection of 1.46 goals for Corinthians and 0.92 for Botafogo, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Our model leans against both teams scoring in Corinthians v Botafogo, at 47% yes and 53% no, with Corinthians keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time and Botafogo 23%, from projected goals of 1.46 and 0.92.
Our model projects 2.38 goals in Corinthians v Botafogo, with over 1.5 goals at 70% and over 2.5 at 43%, and two goals the likeliest total at 27%.
Our model expects 9.9 corners in Corinthians v Botafogo on Thursday 19 November, 5.7 for Corinthians and 4.2 for Botafogo, putting over 9.5 corners at 53% and over 10.5 at 40%.
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards in Corinthians v Botafogo on Thursday 19 November, 1.8 for Corinthians and 2.7 for Botafogo, putting over 4.5 cards at 48% and over 5.5 at 31%.
The Corinthians v Botafogo simulation turns our projections of 1.46 goals for Corinthians and 0.92 for Botafogo into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.