Win, draw and score chances for Coritiba v Santos, with the goals, corners, shots and cards lines, from our projection model.
Updated 14 November 2026, with the latest team projections.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Coritiba win | 29.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Santos win | 42.8% |
| Coritiba or draw (1X) | 57.2% |
| Santos or draw (X2) | 70.3% |
| Coritiba or Santos (12) | 72.5% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% |
| Coritiba clean sheet | 21.6% |
| Santos clean sheet | 28.8% |
| Score | Chance |
|---|---|
| Coritiba 1-1 Santos | 13.1% |
| Coritiba 1-2 Santos | 9.1% |
| Coritiba 0-1 Santos | 8.4% |
| Coritiba 0-0 Santos | 7.4% |
| Coritiba 2-1 Santos | 7.4% |
| Coritiba 0-2 Santos | 7.3% |
| Coritiba 1-0 Santos | 6.6% |
| Coritiba 2-2 Santos | 5.7% |
| Stat | Coritiba | Santos | Match total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 | 1.53 | 2.78 |
| Corners | 5.2 | 5.3 | 10.5 |
| Shots | 14.3 | 15.6 | 29.9 |
| Shots on target | 4.4 | 4.8 | 9.3 |
| Yellow cards | 2.0 | 2.3 | 4.3 |
| Fouls | 12.0 | 12.9 | 24.9 |
| Tackles | 14.6 | 14.2 | 28.8 |
| Stat | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 14.9% | 85.1% |
| Corners | Over 7.5 | 82.3% | 17.7% |
| Corners | Over 8.5 | 72.3% | 27.7% |
| Corners | Over 9.5 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Corners | Over 10.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Corners | Over 11.5 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| Corners | Over 12.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
| Shots | Over 18.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
| Shots | Over 20.5 | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Shots | Over 22.5 | 91.8% | 8.2% |
| Shots | Over 24.5 | 84.0% | 16.0% |
| Shots | Over 26.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 6.5 | 81.7% | 18.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 7.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| Shots on target | Over 8.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Shots on target | Over 9.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Shots on target | Over 10.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 20.4% |
| Yellow cards | Over 3.5 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| Yellow cards | Over 4.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Yellow cards | Over 5.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Yellow cards | Over 6.5 | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| Fouls | Over 19.5 | 86.2% | 13.9% |
| Fouls | Over 21.5 | 74.6% | 25.5% |
| Fouls | Over 23.5 | 59.7% | 40.3% |
| Fouls | Over 25.5 | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Fouls | Over 27.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
| Tackles | Over 16.5 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Tackles | Over 18.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% |
| Tackles | Over 20.5 | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| Tackles | Over 22.5 | 88.1% | 11.9% |
| Tackles | Over 24.5 | 78.3% | 21.7% |
Our model makes Santos favourites in Coritiba v Santos on Wednesday 18 November, with a 43% chance of an away win, 27% for the draw and 30% for Coritiba, from projected goals of 1.53 for Santos and 1.24 for Coritiba.
The most likely score in Coritiba v Santos is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%, from our model's projection of 1.24 goals for Coritiba and 1.53 for Santos, which spreads the rest across every other scoreline.
Both teams score in 57% of the outcomes our model gives Coritiba v Santos, making yes the likelier answer, with Coritiba keeping a clean sheet 22% of the time and Santos 29%, from projected goals of 1.24 and 1.53.
Our model projects 2.78 goals in Coritiba v Santos, with over 2.5 goals at 53% and over 3.5 at 30%, and two goals the likeliest total at 25%.
Our model expects 10.5 corners in Coritiba v Santos on Wednesday 18 November, 5.2 for Coritiba and 5.3 for Santos, putting over 10.5 corners at 48% and over 11.5 at 36%.
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards in Coritiba v Santos on Wednesday 18 November, 2.0 for Coritiba and 2.3 for Santos, putting over 3.5 cards at 61% and over 4.5 at 42%.
The Coritiba v Santos simulation turns our projections of 1.24 goals for Coritiba and 1.53 for Santos into an exact chance for every scoreline, adds those up for the result, both teams to score and the goal lines, then draws 10,000 sample matches from the same model to show the run settling on them.