No, Mexico have taken 18 points over their last 13 Friendly International games, within 0.67 of the 18.67 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Mexico create 1.05 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 13 Friendly International games, 13.68 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 0.32 more than that xG would expect.
Mexico allow 0.93 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 13 Friendly International games, 12.11 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 1.89 more than that xGA would expect.
Mexico's results and their chances agree, within 0.7 points of xPts over 13 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 13 | 13 | 13.68 | 14 | +0.32 | 12.11 | 14 | -1.89 | 18.67 | 18 | -0.67 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.98 | 11 | +0.02 | 8.54 | 10 | -1.46 | 15.25 | 14 | -1.25 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.02 | 7 | +1.98 | 2.46 | 1 | +1.46 | 8.46 | 11 | +2.54 |
| Home | 11 | 11.91 | 12 | +0.09 | 11.39 | 14 | -2.61 | 15.07 | 12 | -3.07 |
| Away | 2 | 1.77 | 2 | +0.23 | 0.72 | 0 | +0.72 | 3.60 | 6 | +2.40 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr | Friendly International | Belgium (H) | 1-1 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 1.72 | 1 | D |
| 29 Mar | Friendly International | Portugal (H) | 0-0 | 0.27 | 1.24 | 0.54 | 1 | L |
| 26 Feb | Friendly International | Iceland (H) | 4-0 | 2.44 | 0.40 | 2.60 | 3 | W |
| 25 Jan | Friendly International | Bolivia (A) | 0-1 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 1.37 | 3 | D |
| 23 Jan | Friendly International | Panama (A) | 0-1 | 1.05 | 0.07 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 19 Nov | Friendly International | Paraguay (H) | 1-2 | 2.23 | 2.52 | 1.25 | 0 | L |
| 16 Nov | Friendly International | Uruguay (H) | 0-0 | 0.50 | 0.18 | 1.58 | 1 | D |
| 15 Oct | Friendly International | Ecuador (H) | 1-1 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | Friendly International | Colombia (H) | 0-4 | 0.83 | 1.39 | 0.95 | 0 | L |
| 10 Sep | Friendly International | South Korea (H) | 2-2 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 1.37 | 1 | W |
| 7 Sep | Friendly International | Japan (H) | 0-0 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 1.05 | 1 | D |
| 11 Jun | Friendly International | Turkey (H) | 1-0 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 1.41 | 3 | W |
| 7 Jun | Friendly International | Switzerland (H) | 2-4 | 1.33 | 2.03 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germán Berterame | attacker | 8 | 316 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Raúl Jiménez | attacker | 8 | 499 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Gimenez | attacker | 6 | 246 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos RodrÃguez | midfielder | 8 | 358 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando González | attacker | 6 | 203 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Gallardo | defender | 11 | 754 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Brian Gutiérrez | midfielder | 5 | 292 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Richard Ledezma | defender | 3 | 186 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Sánchez | defender | 6 | 408 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| OrbelÃn Pineda | midfielder | 7 | 395 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |