League after league in this preview series, the same pattern has set in: one or two clubs hoard the simulated titles and everyone else plays for the scraps. Portugal breaks it. The Statz model's 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 Liga Portugal season — updated 18 August, with the opening rounds already baked in — produce the only genuine three-way title race on the board: Porto at 46.6%, Benfica at 28.2%, Sporting at 24.6%, the trio separated by 3.6 projected points and hoovering up 99.4% of the titles between them.
Everything below comes from the Statz Liga Portugal outrights model. The live version — title, top-four and relegation probabilities for all 18 clubs — re-runs continuously through the season.
| Pos | Team | Title % | Rel % | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 46.6 | 0.0 | 74.3 |
| 2 | Benfica | 28.2 | 0.0 | 71.2 |
| 3 | Sporting | 24.6 | 0.0 | 70.7 |
| 4 | Braga | 0.5 | 0.0 | 56.3 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 0.1 | 0.2 | 50.1 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 0.0 | 0.7 | 48.4 |
| 7 | Arouca | 0.0 | 1.4 | 45.8 |
| 8 | Vitória Guimarães | 0.0 | 1.7 | 45.2 |
| 9 | Marítimo | 0.0 | 2.0 | 45.1 |
| … | ||||
| 16 | Académico Viseu | 0.0 | 31.0 | 33.7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 0.0 | 47.7 | 31.1 |
| 18 | Moreirense | 0.0 | 53.6 | 30.2 |
The full 18-team table, with probabilities for every market, lives on the outrights page.
Porto start where they finished — on top. Francesco Farioli's side, champions last season for a 31st time, lead the projection at 74.3 points with the league's meanest defence: a projected 24.4 goals conceded all season. But a 46.6% title chance is the lowest the model hands any league favourite in this series, and the reason sits directly below. Benfica (71.2 points, and the league's best projected goal difference at +45.2) win the title in 28.2% of simulations; Sporting (70.7) take it in 24.6%.
Three clubs, 3.6 projected points, and a title that changes hands in more than half the simulated seasons. Every one of the six meetings between the big three is, on these numbers, a live title decider.
Below the big three the league changes character instantly: Braga are fourth at 56.3 points — a 14.4-point cliff from Sporting, the steepest third-to-fourth drop in any league in this series — holding the Conference League spot with a 52.2% top-four chance and effectively no title stake (0.5%). Famalicão (50.1) and Gil Vicente (48.4) lead the chasing pack.
Then the row that stands out across the whole series: Marítimo, promoted from the second tier, projected ninth at 45.1 points with a relegation chance of just 2.0%. Everywhere else in this series, promoted clubs are handed survival scraps at best; Marítimo are the only newly promoted side in any of the top flights in this series projected into the top half.
Portugal also breaks the series' other pattern: the model does not send the promoted clubs down. The projected bottom two are established top-flight names — Moreirense (30.2 points, 53.6% relegation) and Casa Pia (31.1, 47.7%) — with second promoted side Académico Viseu in the relegation play-off spot at 31.0% and Rio Ave (34.6 points, 26.1%) the last club in genuine danger. Top-flight incumbency, the model says, is worth less in Portugal than anywhere else on this tour.
The projection re-runs continuously as the rounds come in. The Liga Portugal outrights page carries live probabilities for every market alongside best bookmaker odds, and the Liga Portugal hub tracks the real table. The rest of the season-preview series: the Premier League, La Liga, Eredivisie and Ligue 1.
Who is predicted to win Liga Portugal in 2026/27? Porto — but only in 46.6% of the model's 10,000 simulations, with Benfica (28.2%) and Sporting (24.6%) making it the only genuine three-way title race in Europe's major leagues.
Where are Marítimo predicted to finish in 2026/27? Ninth, at 45.1 projected points — the only newly promoted club in any of the top flights in this series projected to finish in the top half.
Who is predicted to be relegated from Liga Portugal in 2026/27? Moreirense (53.6%) and Casa Pia (47.7%) — both established top-flight clubs — with promoted Académico Viseu in the relegation play-off spot at 31.0%.