The Eredivisie is already under way, and the Statz model's 10,000 season simulations — updated 18 August, with the early rounds baked in — describe a familiar shape: PSV out in front at 61.1%, chasing a fourth consecutive title, with Feyenoord and a rebuilt Ajax scrapping over what's left. The sharper storylines sit at the extremes: a projected top five that pulls clean away from the rest of the division, and a bottom two — Cambuur and Willem II — handed the lowest points projections of any club in any league in this preview series.
Everything below comes from the Statz Eredivisie outrights model. The live version — title, top-four and relegation probabilities for all 18 clubs — re-runs continuously through the season.
| Pos | Team | Title % | Rel % | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV | 61.1 | 0.0 | 74.1 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 15.3 | 0.0 | 66.9 |
| 3 | Ajax | 10.6 | 0.0 | 65.0 |
| 4 | AZ | 8.3 | 0.0 | 64.1 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 3.9 | 0.0 | 61.1 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 0.3 | 0.1 | 52.9 |
| 7 | NEC Nijmegen | 0.2 | 0.1 | 52.0 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 0.1 | 0.1 | 50.8 |
| … | ||||
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 0.0 | 25.3 | 32.2 |
| 17 | Cambuur | 0.0 | 67.2 | 25.8 |
| 18 | Willem II | 0.0 | 72.1 | 25.0 |
The full 18-team table, with probabilities for every market, lives on the outrights page.
PSV won last season's title by 19 points with more than a hundred goals, and the model expects Peter Bosz's side to simply carry on: champions in 61.1% of simulations, 74.1 projected points, and a projected 87.8 goals scored — comfortably the division's most dangerous attack. A fourth consecutive championship is the model's default outcome.
Feyenoord are the most credible challenger at 15.3%, seven points back. The fascinating row is Ajax: after a summer of heavyweight arrivals — Daley Blind's reported return, Caio Henrique, Marcos Leonardo and Tolu Arokodare among the names reported through the door in Jordi Cruyff's first window as technical director — the model still only buys them third, at 65.0 points and a 10.6% title chance. Spending has narrowed the gap; it has not closed it.
The Eredivisie's projected shape is brutally two-tier. AZ (64.1 points) and FC Twente (61.1) complete a top five all projected above 61 points — and then comes an 8.2-point drop to sixth-placed FC Groningen (52.9), the biggest fifth-to-sixth cliff in this series. Between them, the top five soak up 99.2% of the simulated titles; the European qualifying places behind the top flight's big two are effectively a private members' race.
The best of the rest — Groningen, NEC (52.0) and Heerenveen (50.8) — are projected to fill the Conference League qualifying spots without ever threatening the band above.
Three clubs came up from the second tier this season, and the model splits them without mercy. ADO Den Haag are projected to survive in fifteenth at 34.8 points; Cambuur (25.8 points, 67.2% relegation) and Willem II (25.0 points, 72.1%) get the two lowest points projections of any club in any league this preview series has covered, with projected goal differences beyond −40 apiece.
The play-off spot between survival and the drop belongs to an established name: PEC Zwolle, sixteenth at 32.2 points with a 25.3% chance of going down outright — the club with most to fear from a slow autumn.
The projection re-runs continuously as the rounds come in. The Eredivisie outrights page carries live probabilities for every market alongside best bookmaker odds, and the Eredivisie hub tracks the real table. The rest of the season-preview series: the Premier League, Ligue 1 and Liga Portugal.
Who is predicted to win the Eredivisie in 2026/27? PSV — champions in 61.1% of the model's 10,000 simulations at 74.1 points, on course for a fourth consecutive title, with Feyenoord next at 15.3%.
Where are Ajax predicted to finish in 2026/27? Third, at 65.0 projected points with a 10.6% title chance — behind PSV and Feyenoord despite a summer of major reported arrivals.
Who is predicted to be relegated from the Eredivisie in 2026/27? Promoted pair Willem II (72.1%) and Cambuur (67.2%), with PEC Zwolle in the relegation play-off spot at 25.3%.