Updated 12 October 2026.
RB Leipzig and PSV meet at Red Bull Arena on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. Both sides have played once and neither has won: Leipzig were beaten 4-1 at Como, while PSV drew 1-1 at home to Shakhtar Donetsk. That leaves Leipzig 32nd of 36 on 0 points and PSV 20th on 1, and both goals-for and goals-against numbers from those opening games point to an open night.
RB Leipzig have been strong at home and shaky away. They thrashed Frankfurt 6-0 on Saturday and Hamburg 5-0 in September, but they lost 2-0 at Leverkusen, 3-1 at Bremen and 4-1 at Como. That is two wins at Red Bull Arena by an aggregate of 11-0 and three defeats on the road. Their Champions League opener left them with one goal scored and four conceded.
PSV come in steadier. They have won four and drawn one of their last six in all competitions and beat Heerenveen 2-0 on Friday. The one blemish was a 3-2 defeat at Twente on 20 September. Before that they beat Sparta 4-1 and drew 1-1 with Shakhtar Donetsk. Their defence is the better of the two in Europe so far: one goal conceded against Leipzig's four.
Both sides saw both teams score in their opening game. Our projections have PSV committing around 10 fouls against Leipzig's 8.
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; El Aynaoui, Banzuzi; Nusa, Maksimovic, Rômulo; Nkunku
PSV possible starting lineup:
Kovar; Dest, Obispo, Flamingo, Kostić; Sano, Til; Bajraktarevic, Mijnans, van Bommel; Perišić
Armando Obispo has committed a foul in each of his last five games and has averaged three a game over that run. He is 1.67 at bet365 to commit one here and 4.00 for two or more, and the model rates both as likelier than those prices suggest.
Ryan Flamingo has made at least one tackle in all of his last five, averaging 1.8, and is 1.20 at bet365 to do it again. Willi Orbán matches that, with a tackle in all five and an average of 2, also 1.20. Orbán is 4.00 for two or more shots, and he is 1.73 to commit a foul.
Kodai Sano has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.62 at bet365 to have one here. He is 3.75 for a shot on target, a price the model likes. Christopher Nkunku leads the Leipzig line, and with the home side projected at 2.03 goals he is the obvious name for goal markets.
We back RB Leipzig to win at home. They are 1.80 with Coral, and the model gives them a 51% chance, with PSV at 27% and the draw at 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 1.80 (Coral) | 51% |
| Draw | 4.40 (Coral) | 22% |
| PSV win | 4.00 (bet365) | 27% |
| Both teams to score | 1.36 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 67% |
We project Leipzig for 2.03 goals and PSV for 1.44, which is why both teams to score and over 2.5 goals both sit at 67%. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Leipzig more likely to win, and a draw is in play. 2-1 to the home side is only just behind at 9.2%, so we go with RB Leipzig 1-1 PSV as the likeliest scoreline while expecting goals at both ends.
Kick-off at Red Bull Arena is 8pm UK time on Tuesday 13 October 2026, in the Champions League league stage.
Our prediction is RB Leipzig 1-1 PSV as the likeliest single score, with RB Leipzig 2-1 close behind. The model gives Leipzig a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and PSV 27%.
RB Leipzig are favourites at home. They are 1.80 with Coral to win, with PSV at 4.00 at bet365 and the draw at 4.40 with Coral.
Our model gives both teams to score a 67% chance, and over 2.5 goals also 67%. Both sides scored and conceded in their opening Champions League games.
RB Leipzig are 32nd of 36 with 0 points after a 4-1 loss at Como. PSV are 20th with 1 point after a 1-1 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk.
Armando Obispo has committed a foul in each of his last five games, Ryan Flamingo and Willi Orbán have each made a tackle in all of their last five, and Kodai Sano has had a shot in four of his last five.
RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; El Aynaoui, Banzuzi; Nusa, Maksimovic, Rômulo; Nkunku. PSV: Kovar; Dest, Obispo, Flamingo, Kostić; Sano, Til; Bajraktarevic, Mijnans, van Bommel; Perišić.