FC Bayern München open their Champions League campaign at home to Bodø / Glimt in Matchday 1, with kick-off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 10 September. Bayern Munich are 1.11 to win the match, but the visitors arrive on five straight wins and have been scoring wherever they go - which is why the interesting number on this page is not the match price at all.
Bayern Munich's form line reads DWWWD across their last five: three wins and two draws, no defeats. Bodø / Glimt's reads WWWWW - five wins from five. The Statz model rated the Norwegians at 74% to win their league fixture on Friday, and they duly won 2-1 at Fredrikstad. A five-win run tells you a side is scoring and finishing games off, and this one has been doing both.
None of that makes Thursday close. It does mean Bodø / Glimt travel with rhythm rather than rust, which matters most in the markets where they only need to do one thing - find a goal - rather than everything at once. As ever, check team news before kick-off.
The Statz model makes Bayern Munich 79.9% likely to win. At 1.11, the market's fair implied probability is 85.5% - so the model actually sits below the price. That is not a case for backing Bodø / Glimt to win; it is a case for leaving the match result market alone, because at 1.11 you are being paid as if a Bayern Munich win is more likely than our model believes it is.
Both teams to score is the reverse picture. The model puts BTTS Yes at 61.8%, while the 1.67 on offer implies a fair 55.7%. That is a 6.1-point gap in the bettor's favour, on a market that only needs Bodø / Glimt to keep doing the one thing their five-win run shows them doing. Live numbers for this fixture sit on our Bayern Munich vs Bodø / Glimt head-to-head page.
The headline angle is both teams to score at 1.67 with bet365, which our model rates a 61.8% chance against a fair implied 55.7%. Bodø / Glimt arrive on five straight wins and the model expects them to trouble the scoreboard even in defeat; Bayern Munich at home take care of the other half of the bet.
In the player markets, three value picks from our props model stand out, each priced by bet365. L. Díaz 3+ Shots at 1.44 carries a 72.62% projection, assuming he starts. D. Upamecano 2+ Tackles at 1.80 projects at 62.55%, assuming he starts. And on the visiting side, A. Helmersen 1+ Fouls Committed at 1.50 projects at 82.97%, assuming he starts. Each projection sits above the probability implied by the price, which is the only reason they are listed here. For the week's model-backed selections across the full card, see the Statz daily acca.
The model's call is a Bayern Munich win in a game where both sides score. FC Bayern München 3-1 Bodø / Glimt fits both the 79.9% home win number and the 61.8% both-teams-to-score line. Framed properly, that is what the model considers most likely - not a promise about what twenty-two footballers will do on the night.
The rest of the card is covered in our Champions League Matchday 1 betting preview, and our Champions League 2026/27 guide explains the format.
Champions League tickets up for grabs: bet365 - a Statz partner - has launched its Big Ticket Giveaway ballot for the 2026/27 UEFA Champions League, with matchday tickets to be won. Enter the ballot here. 18+. New and eligible customers; registration required; entry details and full terms on the ballot page. T&Cs apply | begambleaware.org
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at the time of writing.