Updated 30 October 2026.
Arouca host Nacional at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 3.30pm UK, in the Liga Portugal. Arouca sit 5th on 17 points and have the league's highest clean-sheet rate, while Nacional are 15th on seven points and have conceded 18 goals in nine games.
Arouca have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games, the highest rate in the division, and they concede 0.78 a game, the 3rd fewest. Nacional have lost six of their nine, and we make Arouca 54% to win. The likeliest single score is 1-1, though, so a draw is in play.
Arouca have won their last two league games, both by a single goal, and are unbeaten in three. They won 1-0 at Alverca on 24 October and 1-0 at home to Estrela on 11 October. Before those came a 2-2 draw at Sporting, a 1-2 home defeat to Santa Clara and a 0-0 at Estoril. They have won five, drawn two and lost two in the Liga Portugal table, with 12 goals scored and seven conceded.
They average 1.33 goals a game, the 9th most, and 3.78 shots on target, the 8th most. They are also among the most booked sides, with 3 cards a game, the 2nd most, while committing the 2nd fewest fouls in the league.
Nacional have lost six of their last ten and arrive off a 1-0 home win over Braga on 25 October that broke a run of six straight defeats. The last four of those were a 3-2 loss at Rio Ave, a 4-0 home beating by Famalicão, a 3-1 home loss to Alverca and a 2-0 defeat at Sporting.
They have scored 10 and conceded 18, and their 2 goals against per game is the 3rd most in the league. Only 22% of their games have ended with a clean sheet. They win 4.33 corners a game, the 9th most, but average only 3.22 shots on target, the 5th fewest.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
de Arruabarrena; Esgaio, Javi Sánchez, Fontán, Lebedenko; van Ee, Fukui; Trezza, Pedro Santos, Djouahra; Barbero
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Marin; Jensen, Gonçalves, Dias, Ze Vitor; Kokolo, Labidi; Gavriel, Baeza, Song; Njoya
Naïs Djouahra has had at least one shot in all nine of Arouca's league games, averaging 2.1 a game. He is 1.05 at bet365 to make it ten.
Iván Barbero has matched that run, one or more shots in nine straight and 2 a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 to extend it.
Orest Lebedenko has made a tackle in nine straight league games, averaging 2.2 a game. His team-mate José Fontán has done the same, at 1.6 a game.
Miguel Baeza has had a shot in six straight league games, averaging 1.2 a game, and is 1.40 at bet365 to keep that going.
Ze Vitor has made a tackle in all nine of Nacional's games, averaging 1.7 a game.
We make Arouca the favourites, and Ladbrokes have them at 1.83 to win. We give them a 54% chance of taking the points, with the draw at 26% and a Nacional win at 20%. Djouahra and Barbero both arrive with nine-game shot runs.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca win | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Draw | 3.70 (bet365) | 26% |
| Nacional win | 4.20 (Coral) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 (bet365) | 50% |
Our model projects 1.72 goals for Arouca and 0.97 for Nacional. The likeliest single score is 1-1 at 12%, which is our prediction, though we make Arouca the more likely winners overall. A 1-0 home win (11%), 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%) are all within a few points of it. We give Arouca a 38% chance of a clean sheet, against 18% for Nacional.
Statz prediction: Arouca 1-1 Nacional.
Arouca vs Nacional in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal kicks off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 1 November 2026 at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Arouca are 5th in the table on 17 points from 9 games and Nacional are 15th on 7 points.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Arouca vs Nacional in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Arouca 54% to win overall, with 26% for the draw and 20% for Nacional. We project 1.72 goals for Arouca and 0.97 for Nacional.
Arouca are the favourites for Arouca vs Nacional in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, and we give them a 54% chance of winning, against 26% for the draw and 20% for Nacional. They are 5th on 17 points from 9 games, while Nacional are 15th on 7 points.
We put both teams to score in Arouca vs Nacional, Liga Portugal 2026/27, at 52%, with over 2.5 goals at 50% and over 1.5 goals at 76%. Arouca have the league's highest clean-sheet rate at 56%, while Nacional concede 2 goals a game.
In the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, Arouca are 5th on 17 points from 9 games, with 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats, and Nacional are 15th on 7 points from 9 games, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats, ahead of their meeting on Sunday 1 November 2026.
For Arouca vs Nacional in the 2026/27 Liga Portugal, Naïs Djouahra and Iván Barbero have each had at least one shot in all 9 of Arouca's league games, averaging 2.1 and 2 a game. Orest Lebedenko has also made a tackle in 9 straight league games.
For the 15:30 UK kick-off on 1 November 2026, Arouca's possible starting lineup is de Arruabarrena; Esgaio, Javi Sánchez, Fontán, Lebedenko; van Ee, Fukui; Trezza, Pedro Santos, Djouahra; Barbero. Nacional's possible starting lineup is Marin; Jensen, Gonçalves, Dias, Ze Vitor; Kokolo, Labidi; Gavriel, Baeza, Song; Njoya.