Updated 23 October 2026.
Paderborn host Hamburger SV at the Home Deluxe Arena on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 2:30pm UK. Paderborn are 16th with five points from six. Hamburger SV are 9th on the back of three straight league wins, which came after two 5-0 defeats in September.
Hamburger SV have the better table position, but they have conceded 15 goals in six games. Paderborn have scored only five.
Paderborn sit 16th in the Bundesliga table with one win, two draws and three defeats. They've scored 5 and conceded 9. Their last outing was a 2-2 draw at Bremen, which followed a 0-2 home defeat to Stuttgart. Their only win came in a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim on 20 September, and they have lost at Dortmund 3-0 and at home to Freiburg 1-0 as well.
Paderborn are short of chances, averaging 3 shots on target a game, the fewest in the division, and 0.83 goals a game, the 3rd fewest. At the back they've held up better: 1.5 conceded a game is the 5th fewest.
Hamburger SV are 9th on 9 points, three wins and three defeats. They beat Stuttgart 1-0 at home last Saturday and won 3-2 at Hoffenheim the week before, adding a 2-1 win over Köln in September. The two heavy losses, 5-0 at RB Leipzig and 5-0 against Mainz, are behind their 2.5 goals conceded a game, the 4th most in the league.
Hamburger SV also give away the most fouls in the Bundesliga, 14.17 a game.
Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Noll; Ter Horst, Hansen, Scheller, Curda; Castaneda, Ulrich; Vidovic, Obermair, Marino; Tigges
Hamburger SV possible starting lineup:
Heuer Fernandes; Capaldo, Bornauw, Omari, Møller Wolfe; Nadir, Muheim; El Ouahdi, Grønbæk, Fábio Vieira; Poulsen
Santiago Castaneda has made a tackle in all six Paderborn games, averaging 2.7, and has had a shot in five straight, averaging 1.4. He is 1.44 at Ladbrokes for a shot in this one.
Stefano Marino has registered a shot in every one of Paderborn's six league games, averaging 1.7.
Raphael Obermair has had a shot in four straight and is 1.44 at bet365 to make it five. Tjark Lasse Scheller has made two or more tackles in three in a row and is 1.91 at bet365 to extend that.
For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira has had three or more shots in three straight games, averaging 4, and has hit the target in each of his last three. A shot on target is 1.73 at bet365, and the 3+ shots run is 2.40 at Ladbrokes. Nicolás Capaldo has made a tackle in all six games, averaging 3, and has had a shot in four straight, at 1.57 with Ladbrokes.
Paderborn are the favourites at 2.20 with bet365, and we make them the more likely winner too, at 40% at home. Hamburger SV are 3.00 and the draw is 3.75.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Paderborn win | 2.20 | 40% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 27% |
| Hamburger SV win | 3.00 | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 53% |
We expect 1.47 goals from Paderborn and 1.31 from Hamburger SV. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make Paderborn the more likely winner overall, at 40% against 33% for Hamburger SV. A 2-1 home win and a 1-0 are the next likeliest scores.
Both teams to score is 1.50 with bet365 and we give it a 57% chance. Hamburger SV concede 2.5 goals a game, while Paderborn score 0.83. Over 1.5 goals is 1.17 with bet365, and we give it a 77% chance.
Kick-off at the Home Deluxe Arena is 2:30pm UK on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Our prediction is Paderborn 1-1 Hamburger SV, although we make Paderborn slightly more likely to win at 40% against 33% for the visitors.
Paderborn are the favourites at 2.20 with bet365, with Hamburger SV at 3.00 and the draw at 3.75.
We give both teams to score a 57% chance, and the best price is 1.50 at bet365. Hamburger SV have conceded 2.5 goals a game this season.
Santiago Castaneda has had a shot in five straight games and a tackle in six. Fábio Vieira has had three or more shots in three in a row for Hamburger SV.
Paderborn are 16th with 5 points from six games. Hamburger SV are 9th with 9 points from six.
Paderborn: Noll; Ter Horst, Hansen, Scheller, Curda; Castaneda, Ulrich; Vidovic, Obermair, Marino; Tigges. Hamburger SV: Heuer Fernandes; Capaldo, Bornauw, Omari, Møller Wolfe; Nadir, Muheim; El Ouahdi, Grønbæk, Fábio Vieira; Poulsen.