Updated 22 October 2026.
Deportivo Alavés host Málaga at the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Friday 23 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a game between the 7th and 20th sides in La Liga. Alavés have 11 points from nine games. Málaga have 4, a goal difference of -12 and no win all season.
That gap is why we make the hosts favourites, though Alavés arrive on a poor run of their own, with four defeats in their last five league games.
Alavés have lost four of their last five league games: a 2-1 defeat at Celta last Sunday, a 2-1 home defeat to Atlético and a 1-0 home defeat to Valencia, with a 0-0 draw at Athletic Club in between. Even so, they sit 7th, concede only 1.11 goals a game and have kept a clean sheet in a third of their matches. They also average 4.78 shots on target a game.
Málaga have drawn four and lost five. Last Sunday they went down 5-2 at home to Sociedad, and before that they drew 1-1 with Espanyol, lost 1-0 at Getafe and 3-1 to Villarreal, and drew 1-1 at Celta. They average 0.67 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in La Liga, and concede two a game, the 3rd most. They manage only 3 shots on target a match.
Deportivo Alavés possible starting lineup:
Sivera; Tenaglia, Valentini, Koski, Otto; Rebbach, Ibáñez, Blanco, Aleñá; Boyé, Martínez
Málaga possible starting lineup:
Herrero; Garrido, Calero, Recio, Salinas; Merino, Dotor, Pablo Martínez; Larrubia, Niño, Chupe
Lucas Boyé has committed two or more fouls in seven straight games, the longest such run in La Liga, and he averages 2.7 a game. He is 1.36 at bet365 to make it eight.
Nahuel Tenaglia has made at least one tackle in nine straight Alavés games, averaging 2.1. He also appears in our player projections for a shot on target at 3.75 and for a foul at 1.67.
For Málaga, David Larrubia has a tackle in nine straight games, averaging three. Carlos Dotor has committed a foul in five in a row and is 1.25 at bet365 to extend it.
Adrián Niño has had at least one shot in five consecutive games, averaging two, and is 1.08 at bet365 to make it six.
We back Alavés to win, at 1.75 with Ladbrokes. Our model gives them a 54% chance, with the draw at 25% and a Málaga win at 21%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Alavés win | 1.75 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Málaga win | 5.25 (bet365) | 21% |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 (bet365) | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 51% |
We project Alavés to score 1.73 goals and Málaga 1.00. 1-1 is the likeliest single scoreline, so a draw is in play, though we make Alavés the more likely winners. Our prediction is Deportivo Alavés 1-1 Málaga, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind.
Alavés keep a clean sheet in 37% of our simulations, against 18% for Málaga, who have scored just six goals in nine games. We put both teams to score at 53%, with the best price 1.95 at bet365, and over 2.5 goals at 51%, available at 2.10. Over 1.5 goals is the safer line in our model at 77%, priced at 1.33 with bet365.
Kick-off at the Estadio de Mendizorroza is at 8pm UK on Friday 23 October 2026.
Deportivo Alavés 1-1 Málaga. 1-1 is the likeliest scoreline, though we make Alavés the likelier winners.
Alavés, at 1.75 with Ladbrokes. We give them a 54% chance, against 21% for Málaga.
We put both teams to score at 53%, with a best price of 1.95 at bet365. Over 2.5 goals is a 51% chance in our model.
Alavés are 7th with 11 points from nine games. Málaga are 20th with 4 points and have not won yet.
Lucas Boyé has committed two or more fouls in seven straight games, the longest run of its kind in La Liga.
Alavés: Sivera; Tenaglia, Valentini, Koski, Otto; Rebbach, Ibáñez, Blanco, Aleñá; Boyé, Martínez. Málaga: Herrero; Garrido, Calero, Recio, Salinas; Merino, Dotor, Pablo Martínez; Larrubia, Niño, Chupe.