Updated 24 October 2026.
Manchester United host AFC Bournemouth at Old Trafford on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 2pm UK. Both sides have won once in the league this season, and they arrive from very different weeks: United were beaten 4-1 at Como in the Champions League on Wednesday, while Bournemouth beat AC Milan 3-0 in the Europa League on Thursday. Bryan Mbeumo has had a shot on target in each of United's seven league games.
Manchester United sit 13th on 7 points from seven games, with one win, four draws and two defeats. They have scored 10 and conceded 10. Their last five games brought no win: three 1-1 draws, at Fulham, with Spurs at Old Trafford and at Leeds on 18 October, and two Champions League defeats, 2-0 at Atlético and 4-1 at Como.
United rank 5th for shots on target and 2nd for corners, and they have scored the 7th most goals per game in the league. At the back, they have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, the 2nd lowest rate in the division, and both teams have scored in 71% of their league games, the 2nd highest.
AFC Bournemouth are 15th on 6 points, with one win, three draws and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus 4. They have won their last three games, 3-0 against AC Milan on Thursday, 2-0 against Sunderland in the league and 3-0 against Sturm Graz in the Europa League. Before that came a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea and a 1-0 home loss to Liverpool.
Bournemouth also rank 4th for shots on target and 3rd for cards, and they commit the 5th most fouls per game. They concede 1.86 a game, the 7th most in the league. Their both-teams-to-score rate is also 71%, level with United at the 2nd highest in the Premier League.
Manchester United possible starting lineup:
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, de Ligt; Andrey Santos, Baleba; Amad Diallo, Fernandes, Tielemans; Mbeumo
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Christie, Tavernier, Rayan; Evanilson
Bryan Mbeumo has had at least one shot on target in all seven of United's league games and at least two shots in each of them, averaging 3.4 shots a game. He is 1.44 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target. Bruno Fernandes has also had a shot in every one of the seven, at 3.3 a game, and is 1.04 at bet365 to make it eight.
Evanilson has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with a high of three, and is 1.73 at bet365 to do it again. He has also committed a foul in four straight league games and is 1.50 at Ladbrokes for another.
Harry Maguire has made at least one tackle in four straight league games, averaging 1.5, and is 1.25 at bet365. On the other side, Rayan has made a tackle in six straight league games at 1.2 a game and is 1.50 at bet365 to extend the run.
We make Manchester United favourites, as the bookmakers do: they are 2.20 at bet365 to win. Our projection is 1.82 goals for United and 1.40 for Bournemouth, and we give United a 47% chance of the win, the draw 24% and Bournemouth 29%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 2.20 (bet365) | 47% |
| Draw | 3.75 (BoyleSports) | 24% |
| AFC Bournemouth to win | 3.10 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 62% |
Our predicted score is Manchester United 1-1 AFC Bournemouth, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make United the clearly more likely winner. A 2-1 home win is next at 9%. Both teams to score is a 64% chance, and over 2.5 goals is 62%.
On the player markets, Adam Smith is 1.40 for a foul and we rank him the likeliest player in the game to commit one, while António Silva is 2.10 for a shot.
The match is at Old Trafford on Sunday 25 October 2026, kick-off 2pm UK time.
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest score, though we make Manchester United clearly more likely to win, with a 47% chance against 29% for Bournemouth and 24% for the draw.
Manchester United are the favourites at 2.20 with bet365, with AFC Bournemouth at 3.10 and the draw at 3.75 with BoyleSports.
We give both teams to score a 64% chance, with bet365 offering 1.53. Both teams have scored in 71% of United's league games and 71% of Bournemouth's, the 2nd highest rate in the division.
Bryan Mbeumo has had a shot on target in all seven of United's league games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to do it again. Evanilson has had a shot on target in each of his last five games for Bournemouth.
Manchester United are 13th on 7 points from seven games. AFC Bournemouth are 15th on 6 points.
United: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, de Ligt; Andrey Santos, Baleba; Amad Diallo, Fernandes, Tielemans; Mbeumo. Bournemouth: Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Christie, Tavernier, Rayan; Evanilson.