Updated 24 October 2026.
Sunderland and Leeds United meet at the Stadium of Light on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 16:30 UK, with the hosts bottom of the Premier League table in 20th and Leeds up in 7th. Sunderland have four points from seven games and have conceded 14 goals in that time. Leeds have drawn four of their seven and let in only six.
On the table Leeds are the stronger side, but we do not see a comfortable away win: a draw is live, and 1-1 is the likeliest single score.
Sunderland have lost five of their seven league games and won one. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw at Lech Poznań in the Europa League on Thursday, a result that followed a 2-0 league defeat at Bournemouth four days earlier. Before that came a 2-1 win at Torreense in the Europa League, and at home they lost 2-0 to Brighton in their last Stadium of Light league game. On 20 September they lost 5-3 at Manchester City.
Sunderland score 0.86 goals a game, the 4th fewest in the league, and concede 2 a game, the 5th most. They have kept a clean sheet in 14% of games.
Leeds have lost only once in the league this season, 2-1 at Arsenal, and they drew 1-1 at home to Manchester United last time out. Before the Arsenal game they drew 0-0 with Crystal Palace and thrashed Newcastle 4-1 at Elland Road. Their goals against figure of 0.86 a game is the 3rd fewest in the division, and they have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches, the 7th highest rate. Both teams have scored in 71% of Leeds' league games, the 2nd highest rate in the league.
Neither side is a heavy volume shooter. Both average 4 shots on target a game, the 9th fewest in each case. Sunderland win more corners, 4.29 a game against 4 for Leeds, and they pick up cards at a higher rate, 2.29 a game, the 6th most.
Sunderland possible starting lineup:
Roefs; Mukiele, Alderete, Reinildo, O'Nien; Xhaka, Sadiki, Hume; Le Fée, Rigg, Tuterov
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Bogle, Muharemović, Elvedi, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Tanaka, Stach; Justin, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had a shot on target in six straight league games, averaging 1.5 a game over the run, and has also committed a foul in seven in a row. His shot-on-target price is 1.50 at bet365.
Anton Stach has had at least one shot in seven straight league games, at 1.6 a game, and that run is priced at 1.20 at bet365. Right-back Jayden Bogle has had a shot in five straight games, with that run priced at 1.80 at bet365, and has also fouled in seven straight.
For Sunderland the runs are on the defensive side. Nordi Mukiele has made a tackle in six consecutive games, averaging 2.8, and Reinildo Mandava has done the same at 1.8 a game. Trai Hume has also tackled in six straight, at 2.3 a game.
We make Leeds slight favourites, and the best price on them to win is 2.50 at bet365. Sunderland are 3.00 at the same firm and the draw is 3.30 at Coral. Our model gives Leeds a 38% chance of winning, Sunderland 35% and the draw 27%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 3.00 (bet365) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.30 (Coral) | 27% |
| Leeds United win | 2.50 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (bet365) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 49% |
1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, and a draw is in play, though we make Leeds slightly more likely to win overall. We expect 1.3 goals from Sunderland and 1.35 from Leeds, and both teams to score comes out at 55%.
If you want a combination, the four-leg Leeds player builder pairs Calvert-Lewin to have a shot on target, Bogle to have a shot, and Ampadu and Gudmundsson to commit a foul each. All four have cleared those lines in each of their last five games, and the best prices are 1.50 for Calvert-Lewin and 1.80 for Bogle at bet365, then 1.33 for Ampadu and 1.48 for Gudmundsson at Ladbrokes.
Our prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United.
Kick-off at the Stadium of Light is 16:30 UK on Sunday 25 October 2026.
Our prediction is Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Leeds slightly more likely to win overall at 38%.
Leeds United are the favourites at 2.50 with bet365. Sunderland are 3.00 and the draw is 3.30.
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, and the best price is 1.83 at Ladbrokes. Leeds have seen both teams score in 71% of their league games.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had a shot on target in six straight league games, averaging 1.5 a match. Anton Stach has had a shot in seven straight.
Sunderland are 20th with 4 points from 7 games, and Leeds United are 7th with 10 points from 7.
Sunderland: Roefs; Mukiele, Alderete, Reinildo, O'Nien; Xhaka, Sadiki, Hume; Le Fée, Rigg, Tuterov. Leeds United: Trafford; Bogle, Muharemović, Elvedi, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Tanaka, Stach; Justin, Okafor, Calvert-Lewin.