Inter vs Fiorentina Predictions, Team News and Betting Tips

Inter welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday 25 October, kick-off 11:30 UK, with the top of Serie A facing the bottom end. Inter lead the table on 19 points from seven games, and Fiorentina sit 18th with four. Inter have scored more than anyone and Fiorentina have conceded more than anyone, which makes the Statz projection an easy one to read.

Inter aren't unbeatable, though. They lost 4-3 at home to Club Brugge in the Champions League on 13 October.

How the teams arrive

Inter are 1st in the Serie A table with six wins and a draw from seven, 21 goals scored and nine conceded. They average three goals a game, the most in the division, and they put 7.29 shots on target a game, also the most. 86% of their league games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in Serie A. Defensively they have kept a clean sheet in 29% of games, the 6th highest rate.

The recent results have been strong more often than not. Inter beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 on Wednesday, won 3-1 at Bologna last Saturday and beat Parma 3-0 on 10 October. The blip was the 3-4 home loss to Club Brugge in between, and before that came a 2-2 draw at Roma. They also commit the fewest fouls in the league, 8.14 a game.

Fiorentina are 18th, with one win, one draw and five defeats, and eight goals scored against 17 conceded. They score 1.14 goals a game, the 6th fewest, and the 2.43 they concede a game is the most in Serie A. They have not kept a clean sheet all season. Their latest outing was a 3-1 home defeat to Como, after a 2-1 loss at Genoa and a 1-1 draw with Napoli. The high point was a 4-2 win at Venezia on 11 September, and a 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Pisa followed. Both sides sit joint 3rd for both teams scoring at 71%, and Fiorentina are also on 86% for over 2.5 goals, matching Inter at the top of that list.

Predicted lineups

Inter possible starting lineup:
Josep Martínez; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; Zieliński, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Diouf, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito

Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Jiménez, Drăgușin, Pongracic, Viery; Ndour, Fagioli, Brescianini; Njie, Mastantuono, Pellegrino

Players to watch

Marcus Thuram has had two or more shots in six straight league games, averaging 3.2 a game, and has registered a shot on target in five in a row. He is 1.18 at bet365 for a shot on target here.

Franco Mastantuono is Fiorentina's most reliable shooter, with two or more attempts in six straight games and 4.3 a game on average. He is 1.36 at Ladbrokes for two or more shots.

Radu Drăgușin has committed a foul in all seven of Fiorentina's games, at 1.4 a game, and is 1.50 at bet365 to make it eight.

Nicolò Fagioli has had a shot in six straight and a tackle in five, averaging 2.6 tackles a game. Piotr Zieliński has shot in six in a row for Inter at 1.8 a game and is 1.17 at bet365 to keep it going.

Match Leaders

Odds and Statz prediction

We back Inter to win at 1.36 with bet365, and our model agrees with the bookmakers on the result. With the 1X2 so clear, the interest is in the player markets: Thuram's shots, Mastantuono's attempts and Drăgușin's fouls.

We project Inter for 2.51 goals and Fiorentina for 0.96, and 2-0 is the likeliest score at 9.8%, with 2-1 at 9.4% just behind it. The Statz prediction is Inter 2-0 Fiorentina. A draw is in play at 18%.

Fiorentina are among the more carded sides in Serie A, averaging two cards a game, the 3rd most.