Updated 22 October 2026.
Torino welcome Monza to the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino on Friday 23 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK, with both sides coming off wins on Monday: Torino won 3-0 at Parma, while Monza put four past Cagliari. The difference is in how the goals come. Monza score and concede freely, while Torino have been tight on shots but still see both teams score in most of their games.
Torino sit 10th on 10 points from seven games, with Monza 14th on 7 points. The model makes the hosts the more likely winners, but this should not be a quiet night: both teams to score is rated at 60% by our model.
Torino have won their last two, beating Udinese 2-1 at home and then travelling to Parma for a 3-0 win. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Bologna and a 2-0 home defeat to Roma. They have scored 10 and conceded 9 in the league, and their goals record is a solid one, with 1.43 scored a game and 1.29 conceded.
Torino are not a side who pile up attempts. Their 3.14 shots on target per game is the 2nd fewest in Serie A, and they win the 2nd fewest corners too. Yet both teams have scored in 71% of their games, the 3rd highest rate in the league.
Monza are the opposite kind of team. They have scored 13 and conceded 15, and the shots on target they produce (6 a game) are the 4th most in Serie A. Both teams have scored in 86% of their games, the 2nd highest rate, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% as well, the highest in the league.
Their latest result was a 4-0 home win over Cagliari, which followed a 3-1 loss at Lazio. Before that they beat Sassuolo 2-1 and lost 3-2 at Lecce. For a side in 14th in the Serie A table, that attacking record is better than the position suggests.
Torino possible starting lineup:
Perri; Coco, Ismajli, Comuzzo; Cacciamani, Mandragora, Bragança, Belghali; Vlašić; Simeone, Adams
Monza possible starting lineup:
Törnqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Carboni, Birindelli; Foe Ondoa, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Robinson, Mota, Gustavo Varela
Samuele Birindelli has had at least one shot in seven straight games for Monza, averaging 1.6, and the same run holds for tackles. Shots of 1+ are 1.62 at bet365.
Gustavo Varela has shot in six straight and averages 2.3 a game. He has put at least one shot on target in four of his last five, and that is 1.40 at bet365.
Ché Adams has had a shot in five consecutive games for Torino and has hit the target in four of his last five. On target is 1.40 at bet365.
Giovanni Simeone has managed two or more shots in four straight, averaging 3 per game, and 2+ shots is 1.18 at bet365.
Andrea Carboni is a different kind of pick: a Monza defender who has made a tackle in four straight games, and our model rates him among the likeliest to commit a foul, with 1+ fouls at 1.40 and 2+ at 2.75.
We back Torino, who are 2.15 at bet365 to win, with our model giving them a 46% chance. Monza are 3.50 at bet365 and the draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Torino to win | 2.15 (bet365) | 46% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Monza to win | 3.50 (bet365) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (Midnite) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 58% |
We expect 1.69 goals from Torino and 1.31 from Monza. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 12%, so a draw is in play, though we make Torino the more likely winners. Both teams to score is 60% and over 2.5 goals 58%, which fits a Monza side whose games keep ending up high-scoring.
The player markets are where the interest lies. Birindelli and Varela have the longest shooting runs on the Monza side, while Adams and Simeone carry Torino's.
Torino host Monza on Friday 23 October 2026, with kick-off at 7:45pm UK at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
We predict a 1-1 draw. Torino are the likelier winners at 46%, but a draw is firmly in play.
Torino are favourites at 2.15 with bet365, ahead of Monza at 3.50 and the draw at 3.40 with Ladbrokes.
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, with the best price at 1.80 with Midnite. Monza have seen both teams score in 86% of their games.
Our model gives over 2.5 goals a 58% chance, with a best price of 1.91 at bet365. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Monza's games, the highest rate in Serie A.
Samuele Birindelli has had a shot in seven straight games, and Gustavo Varela has shot in six straight.
Torino are 10th on 10 points from seven games, and Monza are 14th on 7 points.
Torino: Perri; Coco, Ismajli, Comuzzo; Cacciamani, Mandragora, Bragança, Belghali; Vlašić; Simeone, Adams. Monza: Törnqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Carboni, Birindelli; Foe Ondoa, Akinsanmiro, Mangas; Robinson, Mota, Gustavo Varela.