Updated 11 November 2026.
Albania host Finland at the Arena Kombëtare on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 19:45 UK, in a UEFA Nations League League C game that pairs the 1st-placed side with the 3rd. Finland won the reverse fixture 2-1 on 3 October and have scored 9 goals in four games.
Albania sit on 9 points from four, with three wins and one defeat, and a goal difference of +5. Finland have 7 from four, with two wins, a draw and a defeat, and a better goal difference of +7 thanks to a 7-0 win at San Marino. Albania top their group in the Nations League standings, with Finland two points back in 3rd.
Albania have won three of their last four Nations League games. They beat Belarus 2-0 at home, won 3-0 at San Marino, lost 2-1 to Finland and then beat San Marino 2-1 on 6 October. Before that they lost a friendly 1-0 to Luxembourg in June. Over their four Nations League games they average 2 goals for and concede 0.75 a game.
Albania average 6.75 corners and 5.75 shots on target a game. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of their games.
Finland's results have been mixed. They lost 1-0 at Belarus on 6 October, beat Albania 2-1 at home on 3 October, drew 0-0 with Belarus and won 7-0 at San Marino. They average 2.25 goals a game and concede 0.5. Half their games have ended in a clean sheet, as have half of Albania's. Both teams to score has landed in 25% of Finland's games.
Albania possible starting lineup:
Berisha; Hysaj, Djimsiti, Ismajli, Mitaj; Ramadani, Asllani, Pilios; Muci, Laci, Manaj
Finland possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Mahuta, Miettinen, Lähteenmäki, Koski; Kairinen, Markhiev, Valakari; Walta, Keskinen, Svanbäck
Rey Manaj has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 3.5, and has put at least one on target in three straight. He is 1.11 at Midnite for two or more shots and 1.28 at Ladbrokes for a shot on target. He has also committed a foul in four straight games.
Ernest Muci has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2 a game, and is 1.04 at Midnite for another.
For Finland, Leo Walta has had two or more shots in four straight games, averaging 3, and is 1.40 at Midnite to do it again. Adrian Svanbäck has had two or more shots in each of his last five games, averaging 4.4, and is 1.44 at Midnite. Kaan Kairinen has committed a foul in three straight games, averaging 3.3, and is 1.14 at Midnite to foul again.
Our model backs Albania, giving them a 47% chance of winning, and bet365 have them at 1.95. A draw (28%) is 3.30 at bet365 and Finland (25%) are 4.33 at BoyleSports.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Albania to win | 1.95 (bet365) | 47% |
| Draw | 3.30 (bet365) | 28% |
| Finland to win | 4.33 (BoyleSports) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 (Midnite) | 44% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 (Midnite) | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 (Ladbrokes) | 39% |
We predict Albania 1-0, the likeliest single scoreline at 14%. A 1-1 draw is close behind at 13%, with 0-0 third at 10%, so a draw is a real possibility. Our projection has Albania scoring 1.36 and Finland 0.90, and gives Albania a 41% chance of keeping a clean sheet.
Albania vs Finland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C kicks off at 19:45 UK on Thursday 12 November 2026 at the Arena Kombëtare. Albania lead the group on 9 points from 4 games and Finland are 3rd on 7.
We predict Albania 1-0 against Finland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C game on 12 November, the likeliest score at 14%. A 1-1 draw is next at 13%, and we give Albania a 47% chance of winning, with the draw at 28% and Finland at 25%.
Albania are favourites for the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 game against Finland, with a 47% chance in our model and a best price of 1.95 at bet365. A draw is 28% and a Finland win is 25%.
Our model gives both teams to score a 44% chance in Albania vs Finland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, with Midnite offering 2.10. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 39%, and over 1.5 goals at 66%.
Rey Manaj has had 2 or more shots in 4 straight games for Albania going into the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 game against Finland, averaging 3.5 a game. He has also had a shot on target in 3 straight, and Midnite price 2 or more shots at 1.11.
In the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C group, Albania are 1st with 9 points from 4 games, while Finland are 3rd with 7 points from 4. Albania's record is 3 wins and 1 loss, Finland's is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Predicted lineups for Albania vs Finland in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026: Albania may start Berisha; Hysaj, Djimsiti, Ismajli, Mitaj; Ramadani, Asllani, Pilios; Muci, Laci, Manaj. Finland may start Hradecky; Mahuta, Miettinen, Lähteenmäki, Koski; Kairinen, Markhiev, Valakari; Walta, Keskinen, Svanbäck.