Updated 11 November 2026.
Iceland travel to Stadion Hristo Botev on Friday 13 November to face Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League, kick-off 19:45 UK. Iceland lead their League C group on 8 points from four games and have let in a single goal. Bulgaria are 3rd in the group on 4 points, with one win in four. We predict Bulgaria 0-1 Iceland, with Iceland 49% to win.
Iceland lead their group in the League C standings with two wins and two draws, seven goals scored and one conceded. They have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games, the 2nd highest in the competition, and concede 0.25 goals a game, the 2nd fewest. Their goals record is 1.75 a game, the 10th most. They average 6.25 corners a game, the 4th most.
Their last outing was a 0-0 draw away to Estonia. Before that came the 3-0 win over Bulgaria on 3 October and a 3-0 win at Luxembourg on 29 September.
Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points, with one win, one draw and two defeats, three goals scored and five conceded. Their last game was a 2-0 win away at Luxembourg on 6 October, after the 3-0 loss to Iceland, a goalless draw with Estonia and a 1-2 home defeat to Luxembourg. They score 0.75 goals a game, the 23rd fewest, and their shots on target average of 4.25 is the 27th fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in half their games, the 8th highest rate, and pick up 3 cards a game, the 7th most.
Bulgaria possible starting lineup:
Naumov; Turitsov, Velkov, Tsenov, Velkovski; Gruev, Kraev; Rusev, Petkov, Balov; Yankov
Iceland possible starting lineup:
Valdimarsson; Pálsson, Grétarsson, Thórdarson, Ellertsson; Jóhannesson, Sigurdsson; Haraldsson, Thorsteinsson; Óskarsson, Gudjohnsen
Ilia Gruev has made at least one tackle in each of his last four games for Bulgaria, and Stefan Velkov has done so in three straight, averaging 2 a game from centre-back.
Ísak Jóhannesson has tackled in three straight games, at 3 a game, and had a shot in three straight. Mikael Egill Ellertsson has also had a shot in three straight and tackled in three straight, at 2.7 a game.
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson has made a tackle in all four of his games, at 1.5 a game.
We back Iceland to win, and they are 1.83 at bet365. On the player side, Orri Óskarsson has had a shot on target in each of his last five games and is 1.35 at Ladbrokes to do it again. Martin Yankov has done so in four of his last five and is 1.55 at Ladbrokes. Over 1.5 goals is 1.36 at bet365, and we give it a 70% chance.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria to win | 4.33 (bet365) | 25% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 26% |
| Iceland to win | 1.83 (bet365) | 49% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 (bet365) | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 (bet365) | 44% |
We make it Bulgaria 0-1 Iceland, the likeliest single score at 13%, with a 1-1 draw close behind at 12%. Iceland are 49% to win against 25% for Bulgaria and 26% for a draw. Our projection is 0.96 goals for Bulgaria and 1.47 for Iceland, and Iceland keep a clean sheet 38% of the time.
Bulgaria vs Iceland kicks off at 19:45 UK on Friday 13 November 2026 at Stadion Hristo Botev in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C. Bulgaria are the home side, and Iceland won the sides' earlier meeting 3-0 on 3 October.
We predict Bulgaria 0-1 Iceland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 fixture on 13 November, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%. A 1-1 draw sits close behind at 12%, and we make Iceland 49% to win.
Iceland are favourites for Bulgaria vs Iceland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, with our model giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for Bulgaria and 26% for a draw. They are 1.83 at bet365.
We give both teams to score a 48% chance in Bulgaria vs Iceland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, and over 2.5 goals 44%. Iceland have conceded one goal in four games, and Bulgaria average 0.75 goals a game.
Ahead of Bulgaria vs Iceland in the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, Orri Óskarsson has had a shot on target in each of his last 5 games for Iceland and is 1.35 at Ladbrokes. For Bulgaria, Martin Yankov has done so in 4 of his last 5 and is 1.55.
Ahead of Bulgaria vs Iceland on 13 November, Iceland lead their UEFA Nations League 2026/27 League C group with 8 points from 4 games, while Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points. Iceland have scored 7 and conceded 1; Bulgaria are on 3 for and 5 against.
Predicted lineups for Bulgaria vs Iceland in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026: Bulgaria may start Naumov; Turitsov, Velkov, Tsenov, Velkovski; Gruev, Kraev; Rusev, Petkov, Balov; Yankov. Iceland may start Valdimarsson; Pálsson, Grétarsson, Thórdarson, Ellertsson; Jóhannesson, Sigurdsson; Haraldsson, Thorsteinsson; Óskarsson, Gudjohnsen.