Updated 5 November 2026.
Unión Santa Fe host Vélez Sarsfield at the Estadio 15 de Abril on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 10:15pm UK. The Clausura meeting pairs one of the division's most open defences with one of its tightest. Unión have conceded 1.42 goals a game, the 3rd most in the division, while Vélez have let in only 0.88, the 4th fewest. Unión's games also land over 2.5 goals more often than anyone else's, at 58%, whereas Vélez's do so only 31% of the time.
Unión sit 8th in the Liga Profesional table with 21 points from 16 games. Vélez are 3rd on 28 points and have lost only twice in their 16 games.
Unión's last five results have been uneven. They lost 3-0 at Boca Juniors and 2-0 at home to Defensa y Justicia, then went unbeaten in three. They drew 1-1 at Deportivo Riestra, beat Estudiantes 3-1 at home and drew 1-1 again at Newell's Old Boys last Sunday. They've kept the fewest clean sheets in the league, in 15% of games, and both teams have scored in 64% of their matches, the 2nd highest rate. Their attack is among the league's best, with 1.45 goals a game (the 3rd most) and 4.94 shots on target, the 4th most.
Vélez have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five. They drew 2-2 with San Lorenzo on 31 October, won 5-0 at Central Córdoba on 26 October and beat Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1-0. Before that came a 2-0 defeat at Lanús on 12 October and a 2-2 draw with Platense on 5 October. From their 16 Clausura games they have 7 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats. They keep a clean sheet in 38% of games, the 8th highest rate, and commit just 10.59 fouls a game, the 3rd fewest.
Unión Santa Fe possible starting lineup:
Mansilla; Isla, Rubio, Ludueña, Ayala; Palacios, Mosqueira, Luna Diale; Cuello, Estigarribia, Tarragona
Vélez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Marchiori; García, Silvero, Magallán, Gómez; Baeza, Robertone, Pellegrini; Lanzini, Policella, Martínez
Cristian Tarragona has had three or more shots in four straight games, averaging four a game over that run, and he is 1.73 at bet365 to keep it going. He has also committed two or more fouls in 13 straight games, averaging 2.5, and Midnite make him 1.62 to extend it.
Ronaldo Martínez has put at least one shot on target in eight straight games, averaging two a game, and bet365 have him at 1.62. Juan Cruz Policella has hit the target in six in a row and is 1.83 at bet365.
Lucas Robertone has had a shot in seven straight games, at two a game, and Ladbrokes price him at 1.25. He has also made a tackle in eight in a row, at 3.1 a game. On Unión's side, Juan Pablo Ludueña has made at least one tackle in 18 straight games.
We make Unión Santa Fe the narrow favourites at 38% to win, and the best price on them is 2.60 at Ladbrokes. Vélez are 35% and 2.85 at bet365, with the draw at 27% and 3.25 at Ladbrokes. In the player markets, Tarragona has had three or more shots in four straight games and Ronaldo Martínez a shot on target in eight.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Unión Santa Fe win | 2.60 (Ladbrokes) | 38% |
| Draw | 3.25 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Vélez Sarsfield win | 2.85 (bet365) | 35% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 (Midnite) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 (bet365) | 48% |
We predict 1-1, which comes out at 13%, though we make Unión slightly more likely to win the game. A 1-0 home win is next at 9%, with 0-1 also at 9%. We have Unión scoring 1.34 and Vélez 1.27, with both teams finding the net in 54% of simulations.
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield kicks off at 22:15 UK on Friday 6 November 2026 at the Estadio 15 de Abril, in the 2026 Liga Profesional de Fútbol Clausura. Unión are 8th on 21 points and Vélez 3rd on 28 after 16 games.
Our prediction for Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield in the 2026 Liga Profesional Clausura is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though we give Unión a 38% chance of winning.
Unión Santa Fe are narrow favourites for this 2026 Liga Profesional match, at 38% to win in our model against 35% for Vélez Sarsfield, with the draw at 27%.
We give both teams to score a 54% chance in this 2026 Liga Profesional fixture. Unión have seen both sides score in 64% of their games this season, the 2nd highest rate in the league.
Vélez Sarsfield are 3rd in the 2026 Liga Profesional on 28 points from 16 games, while Unión Santa Fe are 8th on 21 points from 16 games, seven points behind.
Ronaldo Martínez has had at least one shot on target in 8 straight Liga Profesional games for Vélez Sarsfield in 2026, averaging 2 a game, and bet365 offer 1.62 on him continuing it.
Unión Santa Fe's predicted XI for the 2026 Liga Profesional match is Mansilla; Isla, Rubio, Ludueña, Ayala; Palacios, Mosqueira, Luna Diale; Cuello, Estigarribia, Tarragona. Vélez Sarsfield: Marchiori; García, Silvero, Magallán, Gómez; Baeza, Robertone, Pellegrini; Lanzini, Policella, Martínez.