Updated 23 October 2026.
Vasco da Gama and Corinthians meet at the Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on Saturday 24 October, kick-off 22:30 UK, with the two sides sitting next to each other in the lower half of the Campeonato Brasileiro. Vasco are 15th on 35 points and Corinthians 16th on 33. Corinthians are winless in their last ten games, losing eight of them.
Vasco da Gama are 15th in the Brasileirão with nine wins, eight draws and 13 defeats from 30 games, scoring 36 and conceding 43. Their last five were mixed across two competitions: a 2-1 win at Botafogo, a 0-0 draw with Remo, a 1-0 win at Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana, then a 1-0 defeat at São Paulo and a 3-1 home loss to Boca Juniors on Wednesday. That makes two defeats on the bounce going into Saturday.
Vasco rank 4th for shots on target at 5.33 a game and 4th for corners at 5.93. They have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of their games, the 4th lowest in the division.
Corinthians are 16th with eight wins, nine draws and 14 defeats from 31, on 32 goals scored and 39 against. Their latest result was a 1-1 draw at home to Vitória on Monday. Before that came a 4-1 defeat at Palmeiras and a 2-1 loss at Internacional.
Corinthians average 1.03 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the league, and their shots on target average of 3.87 a game is the 4th fewest. At the back they are sturdier: they have the 7th fewest goals against and have kept a clean sheet in 32% of games, the 4th highest rate in the league.
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Léo Jardim; José Luis RodrÃguez, Robert Renan, Gabriel Pereira, Cuiabano; Santiago Sosa, Thiago Mendes, Alan Lescano; Andrés Gómez, Facundo Colidio, Bruno Duarte
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, Gustavo Henrique, Tchoca, Fabrizio Angileri; André Luiz Santos Dias, Breno Bidon, André Carrillo; Rodrigo Garro, Kaio César, Yuri Alberto
Facundo Colidio has had two or more shots in nine straight games, averaging 3.8 a game over it, and the run ranks 4th in the competition. He is 1.15 at Ladbrokes to make it ten. Alongside him, Andrés Gómez has managed two or more shots in four in a row, averaging 3.
Cuiabano has made at least one tackle in 20 consecutive games at 3.4 a game, a run that ranks 2nd in the division. Centre-back Robert Renan has 12 straight with a tackle and is 1.25 at bet365 to extend it.
For Corinthians, Yuri Alberto has hit the target in four straight games, averaging 1.5, and is 1.67 at bet365 for a fifth. André Carrillo has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.83 at bet365 to make it five. Rodrigo Garro has made a tackle in each of his last five, which is 1.36 at bet365.
We back Vasco da Gama to win, and Coral have them at 1.73. Corinthians are 5.00 at bet365 and the draw is 3.70 at bet365. For goals, over 2.5 is 1.95 at bet365 and both teams to score is 1.91 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama win | 1.73 (Coral) | 56% |
| Draw | 3.70 (bet365) | 27% |
| Corinthians win | 5.00 (bet365) | 17% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 (bet365) | 44% |
We project Vasco at 1.63 goals to 0.80 for Corinthians. 1-0 is the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, with 1-1 just behind on a similar figure, and we make Vasco 56% to win against 27% for the draw. We give Vasco a 45% chance of a clean sheet. We predict a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama.
Colidio's nine-game shooting run and Cuiabano's tackling run both come from the home side, while Yuri Alberto has put a shot on target in each of his last four for Corinthians.
The match is at the Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on Saturday 24 October 2026, with kick-off at 22:30 UK time.
We predict a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama. A 1-1 draw is the next most likely scoreline, with the two separated by less than a percentage point.
Vasco da Gama are favourites at 1.73 with Coral, and our model gives them a 56% chance of winning. Corinthians are 5.00 at bet365.
Both teams to score is 1.91 at bet365 and our model puts it at 45%. Vasco are expected to score 1.63 goals to 0.80 for Corinthians.
Corinthians are winless in their last ten games, with two draws and eight defeats, and drew 1-1 with Vitória most recently. They are 16th in the Brasileirão on 33 points.
Facundo Colidio has had two or more shots in nine straight games, averaging 3.8 a game over that run.
Vasco da Gama: Léo Jardim; José Luis RodrÃguez, Robert Renan, Gabriel Pereira, Cuiabano; Santiago Sosa, Thiago Mendes, Alan Lescano; Andrés Gómez, Facundo Colidio, Bruno Duarte. Corinthians: Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, Gustavo Henrique, Tchoca, Fabrizio Angileri; André Luiz Santos Dias, Breno Bidon, André Carrillo; Rodrigo Garro, Kaio César, Yuri Alberto.