Updated 4 November 2026.
Cruzeiro host Bahia at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 00:30 UK. Four points separate two sides in the top six, and Cruzeiro arrive with four wins in their last five league games.
The hosts sit 3rd on 57 points from 33 games, and Bahia are 6th on 53. Cruzeiro have the stronger attack of the two, and our model leans their way, though a draw is firmly in play.
Cruzeiro have won their last three league games and seven of their last ten. The latest was a 1-0 win at Atlético-MG on 29 October, which followed a 1-0 home win over Remo and a 4-2 win at Grêmio. Their only defeat in the last five was a 4-2 loss at Bragantino on 13 October.
They score 1.58 goals a game, the 3rd most, and average 5.27 shots on target, the 4th most. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games, the 3rd highest rate, and 64% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest.
Bahia have won six of their last ten league games. They beat São Paulo 3-2 at home on 29 October, drew 1-1 at Santos, lost 3-0 at home to Flamengo, won 1-0 against Mirassol and lost 1-0 at Palmeiras.
Bahia are tighter at the back than the hosts. They concede 1.27 a game, the 9th fewest, and keep a clean sheet in 27% of games, the 5th highest rate. They also commit a lot of fouls, the 2nd most in the league at 13.94 a game.
The league table shows 17 wins for Cruzeiro against 14 for Bahia, though Bahia have drawn 11 and lost only 8.
Cruzeiro possible starting lineup:
Otávio Costa; Fagner, FabrÃcio Bruno, Villalba, Jonathan Jesus; Lucas Romero, Zé Lucas; Gerson, Matheus Henrique, Keny Arroyo; Kaio Jorge
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Marco Moreno, Luciano Juba; Jean Lucas, Acevedo, Nestor; Erick Pulga, Veliz, Olivera
Kaio Jorge leads the Cruzeiro line and has had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 2.7 a game. He has also had a shot on target in four of his last five, and Ladbrokes offer 1.22 on him to have one again.
Erick Pulga has had at least one shot in 11 consecutive games and averages 2.5, with bet365 pricing another at 1.22. He has also committed a foul in four straight.
Rodrigo Nestor has had a shot in eight straight games and a tackle in six, at 1.14 and 1.15 respectively, both at Ladbrokes.
Marcos Victor has fouled in six straight games and is 1.44 at Ladbrokes to do it again.
We back Cruzeiro, who are 1.73 at Coral and have a 54% chance of the win in our model. We give the draw 24% and Bahia 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro to win | 1.73 (Coral) | 54% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Coral) | 24% |
| Bahia to win | 4.75 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 61% |
We project Cruzeiro to score 1.95 goals and Bahia 1.20, and both sides have scored in around two-thirds of their games this season. We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Cruzeiro more likely to win overall. 2-1 and 2-0 follow, so the home win is where most of the probability sits.
We project Cruzeiro at 19.8 shots and 6.9 on target against 13.0 and 4.2 for Bahia. Kaio Jorge has a shot in nine straight games and Erick Pulga in 11.
Cruzeiro vs Bahia in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 6 November 2026 at the Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto. It is a regular-season fixture between the 3rd and 6th placed sides.
Our prediction for Cruzeiro vs Bahia in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest scoreline at 11%. We still make Cruzeiro more likely to win overall at 54%, with the draw at 24% and a Bahia win at 22%.
Cruzeiro are favourites in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro meeting with Bahia, with a 54% chance of winning in our model. Coral price the hosts at 1.73, while Bahia are 4.75 at bet365 and the draw is 4.20 at Coral.
We give both teams to score a 61% chance in Cruzeiro vs Bahia in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, with over 2.5 goals also at 61%. Cruzeiro's matches have seen both teams score 67% of the time, the 3rd highest rate in the league.
Erick Pulga has had at least one shot in 11 straight Campeonato Brasileiro games for Bahia in 2026, averaging 2.5 a game. bet365 price him at 1.22 to have a shot against Cruzeiro on 6 November.
Cruzeiro are 3rd in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro with 57 points from 33 games, four ahead of 6th-placed Bahia on 53. Cruzeiro have 17 wins and Bahia 14, with Bahia holding 11 draws to the hosts' 6.
For Cruzeiro vs Bahia in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro on 6 November, Cruzeiro's possible starting lineup has Otávio Costa in goal and Kaio Jorge up front, with Gerson, Matheus Henrique and Keny Arroyo behind him. Bahia's has Ronaldo in goal, with Erick Pulga, Veliz and Olivera in attack.