France take on Iraq in their second World Cup Group H fixture on Sunday evening, and this one looks about as one-sided as the data suggests. Les Bleus are projected for 3.0 goals and a staggering 21 shots – this could get ugly for Iraq.
Let’s dig into the numbers on statz.ai and see where the value sits.
France go into this as overwhelming favourites with an 86.88% win probability. That tells you everything. Iraq sit at just 3.61% to pull off a shock – and honestly, even that feels generous given the talent gap on show here.
Here is where this fixture really separates itself:
France projected for over 21 shots is absurd. That is the kind of shot volume that turns previews into formalities. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 67.77%, while BTTS sits at 37.22% – Iraq are not expected to offer much going forward.
Referee Drew Fischer takes charge of this one.
Kylian Mbappe is the obvious headliner. His shot projections are elite – 99.69% for 1+ shots, 97.91% for 2+, and 92.75% for 3+. He is also projected at 93.86% for 1+ shot on target. Against a side like Iraq, he should be licking his lips.
Marcus Thuram (97.21% for 1+ shots) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (95.67%) offer further firepower, while Michael Olise (95.54%) and Ousmane Dembele (93.8%) will look to pile on from the flanks.
For Iraq, Merchas Doski is projected at 91.2% for 1+ tackles – he will have plenty of defending to do.
Four legs from the Statz Bet Builder:
This is a mismatch, plain and simple. France projected for 21 shots against a side projected for fewer than 6 – the volume alone makes this a field day for the French attack. Over 2.5 goals at 67.77% looks solid, but the real play is stacking France player shots in the bet builder. Mbappe at 3+ shots with a 92.75% projection is the anchor – build around him and let France do what France do.
All projections and stats via statz.ai. Odds are indicative and subject to change.