Nantes xG 2025/2026

Nantes expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 36.54
Goals scored: 29
Goals minus xG: -7.54
Expected goals against (xGA): 49.23
Goals conceded: 52
xGA minus goals conceded: -2.77
Expected points (xPts): 38.50
Points: 24
Points minus xPts: -14.50
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are Nantes overperforming their expected goals?

Nantes have taken 14.5 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -7.5 goals against their xG, and -2.8 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Nantes results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	36.54	29	-7.54	49.23	52	-2.77	38.50	24	-14.50
Last 10	10	12.55	7	-5.55	12.05	11	+1.05	13.95	7	-6.95
Last 5	5	7.42	4	-3.42	6.32	6	+0.32	7.24	4	-3.24
Home	17	19.61	18	-1.61	22.68	27	-4.32	21.43	13	-8.43
Away	17	16.93	11	-5.93	26.55	25	+1.55	17.07	11	-6.07

Nantes expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 May	Ligue 1	Toulouse (H)	0-0	0.14	0.20	1.05	1	D
8 May	Ligue 1	Lens (A)	1-0	1.28	1.03	1.54	0	W
2 May	Ligue 1	Marseille (H)	3-0	2.72	1.50	2.06	3	W
26 Apr	Ligue 1	Rennes (A)	2-1	2.08	1.50	1.74	0	W
22 Apr	Ligue 1	PSG (A)	3-0	1.20	2.09	0.85	0	L
19 Apr	Ligue 1	Brest (H)	1-1	0.95	0.32	1.88	1	W
11 Apr	Ligue 1	Auxerre (A)	0-0	1.16	0.66	1.75	1	W
5 Apr	Ligue 1	Metz (A)	0-0	0.77	2.01	0.60	1	L
22 Mar	Ligue 1	Strasbourg (H)	2-3	1.39	2.11	0.96	0	L
7 Mar	Ligue 1	Angers (H)	0-1	0.86	0.63	1.52	0	W
1 Mar	Ligue 1	Lille (A)	1-0	0.25	0.85	0.72	0	L
22 Feb	Ligue 1	Le Havre (H)	2-0	1.51	0.77	1.90	3	W
13 Feb	Ligue 1	Monaco (A)	3-1	1.27	1.81	1.03	0	L
7 Feb	Ligue 1	Lyon (H)	0-1	1.04	1.17	1.26	0	L
31 Jan	Ligue 1	Lorient (A)	2-1	0.90	0.62	1.56	0	W
25 Jan	Ligue 1	Nice (H)	1-4	1.70	1.21	1.70	0	W
18 Jan	Ligue 1	Paris (H)	1-2	0.36	0.58	1.04	0	D
4 Jan	Ligue 1	Marseille (A)	0-2	2.76	0.68	2.54	3	W
12 Dec	Ligue 1	Angers (A)	4-1	0.38	2.68	0.21	0	L
6 Dec	Ligue 1	Lens (H)	1-2	1.67	2.80	0.82	0	L
30 Nov	Ligue 1	Lyon (A)	3-0	0.87	2.85	0.39	0	L
23 Nov	Ligue 1	Lorient (H)	1-1	1.01	0.49	1.78	1	W
8 Nov	Ligue 1	Le Havre (A)	1-1	0.16	1.39	0.39	1	L
2 Nov	Ligue 1	Metz (H)	0-2	1.09	0.93	1.47	0	W
29 Oct	Ligue 1	Monaco (H)	3-5	2.12	3.08	0.94	0	L
24 Oct	Ligue 1	Paris (A)	1-2	0.85	1.07	1.17	3	L
19 Oct	Ligue 1	Lille (H)	0-2	0.69	3.17	0.25	0	L
4 Oct	Ligue 1	Brest (A)	0-0	0.35	1.43	0.53	1	L
27 Sep	Ligue 1	Toulouse (A)	2-2	1.45	2.27	0.92	1	L
20 Sep	Ligue 1	Rennes (H)	2-2	1.93	1.32	1.77	1	W

Nantes players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Fabien Centonze	defender	15	745	0.78	3	+2.22	0.09
Mostafa Mohamed	attacker	24	1152	2.86	4	+1.14	0.22
Mayckel Lahdo	attacker	8	417	0.30	1	+0.70	0.07
Chidozie Awaziem	defender	26	2232	0.84	1	+0.16	0.03
Herba Guirassy	attacker	20	819	2.10	2	-0.10	0.23
Rémy Cabella	midfielder	11	569	2.14	2	-0.14	0.34
Youssef El Arabi	attacker	25	948	3.24	3	-0.24	0.31
Ignatius Ganago	attacker	13	843	3.48	3	-0.48	0.37
Junior Mwanga	midfielder	15	1263	1.48	1	-0.48	0.11
Dehmaine Tabibou	midfielder	27	1250	1.62	1	-0.62	0.12
Louis Leroux	midfielder	23	1443	1.62	1	-0.62	0.10
Amady Camara	attacker	10	162	0.67	0	-0.67	0.37
Johann Lepenant	midfielder	27	2175	1.03	0	-1.03	0.04
Mohamed Kaba	midfielder	12	925	1.09	0	-1.09	0.11
Nicolas Cozza	defender	29	2302	1.52	0	-1.52	0.06
Matthis Abline	attacker	32	2497	7.97	6	-1.97	0.29

Ligue 1 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Lens	34	67.5	66	44	35	58.6	70	+11.4
2	Rennes	34	53	59	52.2	50	48.3	59	+10.7
3	Olympique Lyonnais	34	52.4	53	47.4	40	49.8	60	+10.2
4	Paris Saint Germain	34	67.8	74	33.3	29	67.4	76	+8.6
5	Strasbourg	34	49.7	58	45.3	47	48.9	53	+4.1
6	Monaco	34	55.4	60	48.7	54	50.6	54	+3.4
7	LOSC Lille	34	53.8	52	35.4	37	58	61	+3
8	Olympique Marseille	34	57.7	63	40.8	45	57.4	59	+1.6
9	Paris	34	45	47	55	50	42.5	44	+1.5
10	Angers SCO	34	34.5	29	53.8	48	34.5	36	+1.5
11	Lorient	34	45.8	48	46.8	51	45.4	45	-0.4
12	Brest	34	43.9	43	52.4	55	43.5	39	-4.5
13	Toulouse	34	45.8	47	41.8	46	49.6	45	-4.6
14	Le Havre	34	40	32	52.2	44	40.5	35	-5.5
15	Nice	34	42.2	37	58.2	60	38.2	32	-6.2
16	Auxerre	34	38.2	34	46.6	44	41.8	34	-7.8
17	Nantes	34	36.5	29	49.2	52	38.5	24	-14.5
18	Metz	34	34	32	60.3	76	31.5	17	-14.5