NAC Breda xG 2025/2026

NAC Breda expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 44.68
Goals scored: 35
Goals minus xG: -9.68
Expected goals against (xGA): 50.46
Goals conceded: 58
xGA minus goals conceded: -7.54
Expected points (xPts): 44.40
Points: 29
Points minus xPts: -15.40
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are NAC Breda overperforming their expected goals?

NAC Breda have taken 15.4 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -9.7 goals against their xG, and -7.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

NAC Breda results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	44.68	35	-9.68	50.46	58	-7.54	44.40	29	-15.40
Last 10	10	12.35	10	-2.35	15.08	22	-6.92	12.31	7	-5.31
Last 5	5	7.66	6	-1.66	8.72	8	+0.72	6.60	5	-1.60
Home	17	25.25	20	-5.25	20.22	23	-2.78	26.57	20	-6.57
Away	17	19.43	15	-4.43	30.24	35	-4.76	17.83	9	-8.83

NAC Breda expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 May	Eredivisie	AZ (A)	3-3	2.03	1.46	1.74	1	W
11 May	Eredivisie	Heerenveen (H)	2-0	2.18	1.24	1.96	3	W
2 May	Eredivisie	FC Utrecht (A)	2-0	0.53	3.07	0.20	0	L
25 Apr	Eredivisie	Ajax (H)	0-2	1.92	1.70	1.53	0	W
12 Apr	Eredivisie	Fortuna (A)	1-1	1.00	1.25	1.17	1	L
5 Apr	Eredivisie	Sparta (H)	0-0	0.57	0.34	1.49	1	D
21 Mar	Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle (A)	2-1	1.35	0.84	1.74	0	W
15 Mar	Eredivisie	GA Eagles (A)	6-0	1.23	1.95	0.94	0	L
8 Mar	Eredivisie	Feyenoord (H)	3-3	1.10	1.78	0.94	1	L
27 Feb	Eredivisie	Telstar (A)	3-0	0.44	1.45	0.60	0	L
21 Feb	Eredivisie	FC Volendam (H)	1-0	1.27	0.55	1.92	3	W
14 Feb	Eredivisie	Heracles Almelo (A)	0-1	1.32	1.55	1.22	3	L
6 Feb	Eredivisie	Excelsior (H)	0-2	1.58	1.12	1.69	0	W
30 Jan	Eredivisie	FC Twente (H)	2-2	1.39	2.12	0.96	1	L
24 Jan	Eredivisie	PSV (A)	2-2	1.17	1.64	1.06	1	L
17 Jan	Eredivisie	NEC Nijmegen (H)	3-4	0.97	1.11	1.24	0	L
10 Jan	Eredivisie	FC Groningen (A)	0-0	0.98	1.59	0.95	1	L
20 Dec	Eredivisie	Telstar (H)	0-1	0.92	1.71	0.84	0	L
14 Dec	Eredivisie	FC Utrecht (H)	1-1	1.25	0.75	1.74	1	W
7 Dec	Eredivisie	Sparta (A)	1-0	2.09	1.79	1.57	0	W
29 Nov	Eredivisie	Excelsior (A)	1-0	1.64	1.03	1.79	0	W
22 Nov	Eredivisie	PSV (H)	0-1	1.28	0.72	1.79	0	W
8 Nov	Eredivisie	FC Volendam (A)	2-1	0.78	1.64	0.77	0	L
1 Nov	Eredivisie	GA Eagles (H)	1-0	0.54	0.41	1.39	3	D
24 Oct	Eredivisie	Heerenveen (A)	3-3	1.30	0.97	1.60	1	W
18 Oct	Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle (H)	2-2	2.85	1.23	2.27	1	W
3 Oct	Eredivisie	FC Groningen (H)	1-2	1.13	1.29	1.25	0	L
27 Sep	Eredivisie	Ajax (A)	2-1	1.76	1.78	1.38	0	L
20 Sep	Eredivisie	Heracles Almelo (H)	2-1	2.13	1.09	2.03	3	W
13 Sep	Eredivisie	FC Twente (A)	2-2	0.95	2.10	0.68	1	L

NAC Breda players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Boy Kemper	defender	32	2821	3.31	5	+1.69	0.11
Mohamed Nassoh	midfielder	28	1826	3.93	5	+1.07	0.19
Juho Talvitie	attacker	27	1395	1.98	3	+1.02	0.13
Moussa Soumano	attacker	16	793	4.02	5	+0.98	0.46
Boyd Lucassen	defender	20	1110	0.45	1	+0.55	0.04
Raul Paula	midfielder	21	712	1.47	2	+0.53	0.19
Leo Greiml	defender	14	1135	0.68	1	+0.32	0.05
Pepijn Reulen	attacker	16	311	0.93	1	+0.07	0.27
Sydney van Hooijdonk	attacker	18	1200	5.38	5	-0.38	0.40
Denis Odoi	defender	19	1514	0.53	0	-0.53	0.03
Max Balard	midfielder	32	2737	0.74	0	-0.74	0.02
Clint Leemans	midfielder	31	1360	2.12	1	-1.12	0.14
Enes Mahmutovic	defender	15	733	1.13	0	-1.13	0.14
Cherrion Valerius	defender	28	1832	1.24	0	-1.24	0.06
Lewis Holtby	midfielder	30	1944	2.62	1	-1.62	0.12
Rio Hillen	defender	26	2005	2.05	0	-2.05	0.09
Kamal Sowah	attacker	33	2790	3.15	1	-2.15	0.10
Charles-Andreas Brym	attacker	24	1504	4.39	2	-2.39	0.26
André Ayew	attacker	17	881	3.41	1	-2.41	0.35

Eredivisie 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	PSV	34	76.1	101	39.4	45	67.9	84	+16.1
2	PEC Zwolle	34	36.6	44	65.9	71	30.8	37	+6.2
3	Ajax	34	55.2	62	48.2	41	50.7	56	+5.3
4	NEC Nijmegen	34	64.1	77	48.4	53	54.5	59	+4.5
5	Go Ahead Eagles	34	44.7	54	73.1	53	34.8	38	+3.2
6	Feyenoord	34	67.1	70	38.8	44	62.5	65	+2.5
7	Sparta Rotterdam	34	45.7	40	59.6	62	40.7	43	+2.3
8	FC Utrecht	34	53.6	55	45.4	42	52.3	53	+0.7
9	Fortuna Sittard	34	47.7	49	59.8	63	39.8	39	-0.8
10	FC Volendam	34	38	35	63.4	55	33.3	32	-1.3
11	Telstar	34	48.5	49	64.4	55	38.9	37	-1.9
12	Excelsior	34	48.7	43	58.5	56	40.9	38	-2.9
13	SC Heerenveen	34	61.7	57	51.5	53	54.4	51	-3.4
14	AZ	34	63.6	58	46.1	51	56.5	52	-4.5
15	FC Twente	34	70.7	59	40.1	40	63	58	-5
16	FC Groningen	34	59.3	49	48.7	45	53.2	48	-5.2
17	Heracles Almelo	34	43.2	35	67.4	85	33.5	19	-14.5
18	NAC Breda	34	44.7	35	50.5	58	44.4	29	-15.4