Heracles Almelo xG 2025/2026

Heracles Almelo expected goals 2025/2026: 2025/2026

Games: 34
Expected goals (xG): 43.17
Goals scored: 35
Goals minus xG: -8.17
Expected goals against (xGA): 67.43
Goals conceded: 85
xGA minus goals conceded: -17.57
Expected points (xPts): 33.52
Points: 19
Points minus xPts: -14.52
Verdict: Due an upturn

Are Heracles Almelo overperforming their expected goals?

Heracles Almelo have taken 14.5 points fewer than their chances warranted over 34 games: -8.2 goals against their xG, and -17.6 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Heracles Almelo results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/26	34	43.17	35	-8.17	67.43	85	-17.57	33.52	19	-14.52
Last 10	10	10.34	4	-6.34	21.01	23	-1.99	8.51	2	-6.51
Last 5	5	5.24	1	-4.24	7.32	11	-3.68	5.57	0	-5.57
Home	17	25.32	23	-2.32	29.94	36	-6.06	20.57	15	-5.57
Away	17	17.85	12	-5.85	37.49	49	-11.51	12.95	4	-8.95

Heracles Almelo expected goals match by match, 2025/2026

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
17 May	Eredivisie	FC Groningen (H)	1-2	0.99	1.71	0.89	0	L
10 May	Eredivisie	Telstar (A)	3-0	0.80	2.20	0.55	0	L
3 May	Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle (A)	1-0	1.58	0.69	2.02	0	W
26 Apr	Eredivisie	FC Volendam (H)	0-2	1.02	1.20	1.22	0	L
11 Apr	Eredivisie	Ajax (H)	0-3	0.85	1.52	0.89	0	L
5 Apr	Eredivisie	Heerenveen (A)	4-1	1.39	4.40	0.27	0	L
20 Mar	Eredivisie	Excelsior (H)	1-1	1.43	1.15	1.57	1	W
15 Mar	Eredivisie	AZ (A)	4-0	0.56	2.46	0.34	0	L
6 Mar	Eredivisie	FC Utrecht (H)	0-0	0.36	2.38	0.26	1	L
28 Feb	Eredivisie	PSV (H)	1-3	1.36	3.30	0.50	0	L
22 Feb	Eredivisie	GA Eagles (A)	4-0	0.86	2.11	0.62	0	L
14 Feb	Eredivisie	NAC Breda (H)	0-1	1.55	1.32	1.53	0	W
7 Feb	Eredivisie	NEC Nijmegen (A)	4-1	1.15	2.27	0.74	0	L
1 Feb	Eredivisie	Fortuna (H)	2-1	2.19	0.65	2.36	3	W
25 Jan	Eredivisie	Feyenoord (A)	4-2	1.85	1.48	1.62	0	W
18 Jan	Eredivisie	FC Twente (H)	0-2	1.26	2.45	0.73	0	L
11 Jan	Eredivisie	Sparta (A)	2-0	0.57	2.10	0.45	0	L
20 Dec	Eredivisie	Heerenveen (H)	0-3	0.72	2.00	0.57	0	L
13 Dec	Eredivisie	PSV (A)	4-3	2.33	3.86	0.75	0	L
6 Dec	Eredivisie	Telstar (H)	1-1	2.06	0.83	2.18	1	W
29 Nov	Eredivisie	Fortuna (A)	1-1	0.90	1.66	0.85	1	L
22 Nov	Eredivisie	GA Eagles (H)	4-2	3.39	0.50	2.75	3	W
8 Nov	Eredivisie	Excelsior (A)	1-2	1.28	1.80	1.05	3	L
2 Nov	Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle (H)	8-2	4.01	0.81	2.70	3	W
25 Oct	Eredivisie	FC Volendam (A)	3-0	1.06	1.72	0.94	0	L
19 Oct	Eredivisie	Feyenoord (H)	0-7	0.24	2.34	0.20	0	L
5 Oct	Eredivisie	FC Twente (A)	2-1	0.69	1.66	0.69	0	L
27 Sep	Eredivisie	Sparta (H)	3-0	1.11	1.45	1.13	3	L
20 Sep	Eredivisie	NAC Breda (A)	2-1	1.09	2.13	0.76	0	L
14 Sep	Eredivisie	AZ (H)	1-2	1.21	2.89	0.54	0	L

Heracles Almelo players: goals against expected goals, 2025/2026

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Jizz Hornkamp	attacker	14	1115	7.83	10	+2.17	0.63
Yvandro Borges Sanches	attacker	11	516	0.40	2	+1.60	0.07
Damon Mirani	defender	33	2933	1.71	3	+1.29	0.05
Mike te Wierik	defender	22	1383	0.44	1	+0.56	0.03
Walid Ould-Chikh	midfielder	24	1494	0.68	1	+0.32	0.04
Thomas Bruns	midfielder	27	1167	1.02	1	-0.02	0.08
Ivan Mesik	defender	30	2633	2.05	2	-0.05	0.07
Bryan Limbombe	attacker	22	1310	1.06	1	-0.06	0.07
Sem Scheperman	midfielder	16	1123	1.57	1	-0.57	0.13
Mimeirhel Benita	defender	25	1446	0.72	0	-0.72	0.04
Jan Zamburek	midfielder	26	1734	0.76	0	-0.76	0.04
T. van Gilst	attacker	28	1262	2.79	2	-0.79	0.20
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck	defender	24	2156	3.07	2	-1.07	0.13
Naci Ünüvar	attacker	10	668	1.11	0	-1.11	0.15
Lequincio Zeefuik	attacker	13	1061	3.32	2	-1.32	0.28
Mario Engels	attacker	24	998	2.49	1	-1.49	0.22
Ajdin Hrustic	midfielder	27	2222	2.90	1	-1.90	0.12
Luka Kulenovic	attacker	29	1623	8.08	5	-3.08	0.45

Eredivisie 2025/2026: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	PSV	34	76.1	101	39.4	45	67.9	84	+16.1
2	PEC Zwolle	34	36.6	44	65.9	71	30.8	37	+6.2
3	Ajax	34	55.2	62	48.2	41	50.7	56	+5.3
4	NEC Nijmegen	34	64.1	77	48.4	53	54.5	59	+4.5
5	Go Ahead Eagles	34	44.7	54	73.1	53	34.8	38	+3.2
6	Feyenoord	34	67.1	70	38.8	44	62.5	65	+2.5
7	Sparta Rotterdam	34	45.7	40	59.6	62	40.7	43	+2.3
8	FC Utrecht	34	53.6	55	45.4	42	52.3	53	+0.7
9	Fortuna Sittard	34	47.7	49	59.8	63	39.8	39	-0.8
10	FC Volendam	34	38	35	63.4	55	33.3	32	-1.3
11	Telstar	34	48.5	49	64.4	55	38.9	37	-1.9
12	Excelsior	34	48.7	43	58.5	56	40.9	38	-2.9
13	SC Heerenveen	34	61.7	57	51.5	53	54.4	51	-3.4
14	AZ	34	63.6	58	46.1	51	56.5	52	-4.5
15	FC Twente	34	70.7	59	40.1	40	63	58	-5
16	FC Groningen	34	59.3	49	48.7	45	53.2	48	-5.2
17	Heracles Almelo	34	43.2	35	67.4	85	33.5	19	-14.5
18	NAC Breda	34	44.7	35	50.5	58	44.4	29	-15.4