Brentford host Sunderland at the Gtech on Saturday, 3:00pm UK kickoff, with the Statz model projecting the widest gulf of the afternoon's fixtures: 1.85 goals for the hosts against 0.97 for the visitors, and 15.61 shots to 9.33.
That is a striking call about a Sunderland side that beat Fulham last weekend, and it makes this one of the more opinionated pages in the Statz match centre this week. All numbers below come from there.
Team news is not confirmed, so these are the expected XIs from the Statz predicted lineups.
Brentford are expected to go 4-2-3-1: CaoimhÃn Kelleher in goal; Michael Kayode, Kristoffer Ajer, Nathan Collins and Keane Lewis-Potter in the back four; Mamadou Sangaré and Vitaly Janelt in the pivot; Jaidon Anthony, Mikkel Damsgaard and Kevin Schade behind Igor Thiago.
Sunderland are expected to mirror the shape: Robin Roefs in goal; Reinildo Mandava, Dan Ballard, Nordi Mukiele and Thomas Meunier across the defence; Noah Sadiki alongside Granit Xhaka; Nilson Angulo, Enzo Le Fée and Trai Hume in the band ahead, with Brian Brobbey leading the line.
Brentford are unbeaten in five, reading D-D-W-W-D: a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace and a 1-1 at Liverpool to finish last season, then a 3-0 home win over Tottenham, a 6-1 Carabao Cup romp at Birmingham City and a 1-1 draw at Leeds. They are conceding just 0.5 goals per game in the league this season, the third best record in the division, while ranking third for both shots on target (6.5 per game) and corners (6.5).
Sunderland's five read D-W-W-L-W: a 0-0 with Manchester United, a 3-1 win at Everton and a 2-1 win over Chelsea to close last season, then a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich and last weekend's 1-0 win over Fulham. Three wins in five is a decent return, though the model clearly weighs the underlying numbers more than the results.
No active streaks at the thresholds Statz tracks, but the last-5 data runs deep. Mamadou Sangaré has taken a shot in all five of his most recent matches, averaging 2.2 per game on counts of 3, 2, 1, 2 and 3, unusual volume for a holding midfielder. Trai Hume has made two or more tackles in five straight, averaging 2.8, and both Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard have committed a foul in every one of their last five, each averaging 1.4 per game.
The fouls theme has a team-level backdrop: Brentford are committing 15 fouls per game, the most in the Premier League this season. The counterweight is referee Thomas Bramall, whose one league game this season produced 23 fouls but only two yellow cards, so fouls markets look livelier than cards markets here.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The value board is again fouls-first. Jaidon Anthony for two or more fouls was 5.00 at the time of writing, with the model ranking him third most likely on the whole board against a market price ranked 18th, the biggest gap in the fixture. His single-foul line at 1.80 rated nearly as well, as did Nathan Collins at the same 1.80 for a foul.
On the away side, Nordi Mukiele appears three times: 1.53 for a foul, 3.50 for two or more, and 2.38 for a shot, all at the time of writing, with the model ranking him meaningfully likelier than the market on each. Dango Ouattara's foul line at 1.67 also flagged, but he is not in the expected XI, so hold that one until the team sheets land on the Statz projections page.
The model makes Brentford the strongest home fancy of the 3pm kickoffs, projecting 1.85 goals to 0.97 for a Sunderland side it expects to be out-shot by more than six attempts. Sunderland's three wins in their last five say they are no pushover, but the shape of this one, the league's most frequent foulers at home under a card-shy referee, points the interest at the fouls board rather than the scoreline. Anthony and Mukiele are the names the numbers keep flagging.