Everton host Ipswich Town at 15:00 UK on Saturday 19 September. Both sides have six points from four games, ninth and tenth, separated by goal difference.
They have arrived there by completely different routes.
Everton are unbeaten in five: 4-0 at Preston North End in the cup, 1-1 at AFC Bournemouth, 2-2 with Manchester United, 0-0 at Tottenham Hotspur and a 1-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Tuesday. Five scored and three conceded in the league, with 1.24 expected goals created a game and 1.49 against. Solid rather than thrilling.
Ipswich Town are the opposite. Seven scored and ten conceded in four league games, the most in the division: 2-5 at Manchester United, 0-2 at home to Liverpool, 3-2 at Crystal Palace, and a 4-2 cup defeat to Arsenal on Tuesday. Goals at both ends in four of their last five.
The two have met twice recently, a 2-2 at Goodison and a 2-0 Everton win at Portman Road.
The model makes under 2.5 goals 48 percent at 11/10, 2.7 points clear, and no goals at both ends 46 percent at the same price. Ipswich Town to win is 24 percent at 7/2, also rated above its price.
Under 2.5 is our Premier League betting predictions selection, and it deserves the obvious challenge: backing unders in an Ipswich Town game looks contrarian when four of their last five have had goals at both ends. The case is Everton, who have conceded three in four and have not let a league game get away from them all season. If this one breaks open early, the bet is dead - we would rather say that than pretend the risk is not there.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Stuart Attwell, and he is the strictest appointment in the division this weekend: 4.73 cards a game across 30 matches, and a card every 4.7 fouls. On a fixture with this much transition, the card markets are the live ones. The full weekend list is in our Referee Watch.
Per-90 numbers for both squads are on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Everton have been hard to beat and hard to enjoy; Ipswich Town have been neither. The model sees the home side's control outweighing the visitors' chaos, though not by much.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Ipswich Town.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.