Belgium host Turkey at 19:45 UK on Friday 2 October at the Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liege. Belgium have a win and a defeat from the window, Turkey have two defeats and five goals conceded, and both have now played France and Italy.
The two teams between them sit second and seventh of 54 in this competition for cards a game. That is the number this fixture is built around.
Belgium won 2-0 in Italy and then lost 0-1 at home to France on Monday, which is a respectable return against the two best sides in the group. They rank eighth of 54 for goals conceded at half a goal a game and have a clean sheet in one of two. Before the window they beat the United States 4-1 and lost 2-1 to Spain at the World Cup.
Turkey have had the harder draw and shown it. They lost 0-1 at home to France and were beaten 1-4 at home by Italy on Monday, and now rank fiftieth of 54 for goals conceded at 2.5 a game. Half a goal a game scored puts them thirty-fourth. Their summer was no kinder: a 3-2 win over the United States either side of defeats to Paraguay and Australia. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.13 goals for Belgium and 1.06 for Turkey, a combined 3.19, and rates Belgium 61.8 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 60.1.
The interesting disagreement is on the totals. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44, an implied 65.2 per cent, and the model has it at 61.7. The same gap runs the other way on under 2.5 at 2.70, where the model's 38.3 per cent sits three and a half points above what the price implies. Both teams to score, No, carries a similar three-point gap at 2.38.
That shape is familiar. Across 363 Nations League matches, both teams score in 46.6 per cent of games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues, and a side as far ahead as Belgium are here tends to produce the kind of scoreline that clears one goals line without troubling the other.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Rohit Saggi, averaging 3.5 yellow cards and 26 fouls a game across two matches this season, which is a small sample and worth treating as one.
The cards material underneath him is not small. Belgium are second of 54 teams in this competition for cards at four a game, Turkey seventh at three. Turkey also commit 13 fouls a game to Belgium's 11.5. A fixture where the away side has conceded five in two and has to chase is the shape where that number tends to hold rather than fall.
Player prop markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so the bet builder board is unavailable. The live fixture page carries the projections as they update.
Belgium should win and the price is close to the model on it. The more interesting reading is that the market has the goals markets shorter than the numbers support, in a competition where the evidence says the goals get shared out less evenly than club football trains you to expect.
The read is a Belgium win without the open game the totals are priced for, and a card count worth more attention than the scoreline.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.