PGA Championship 2026 — Betting Preview

The second major of 2026 lands at Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania – a Donald Ross design from 1928 that hosts the PGA Championship for May 14-17. Par 70, 7,267 yards, Bentgrass fairways and greens, Tall Fescue rough. This course demands precision above power. Ross layouts punish poor approach play, and the numbers confirm it: Statz projects approach play as the dominant skill demand here, accounting for 37% of the scoring variance based on four editions of data. Putting follows at 26%. Bombers need not apply.

The projected winning score from Statz is -11 against a projected cut line of +1. This is a tight, unforgiving test.

What Does It Take to Win at Aronimink?

The course profile from Statz is clear. Top-10 finishers here average +1.13 strokes gained on approach and +0.78 on the greens. Off the tee matters least – OTT carries only a 21% demand weight. Players who find fairways, attack pins and hole their fair share of mid-range putts on Bentgrass are the ones who contend. The rough is genuine Tall Fescue penal rough. Missing fairways is punished. Course setup score is heavily weighted to players with controlled ball flights and strong iron games.

The Favourites

It would be easy to pile onto the top of the market. Scottie Scheffler is the Statz model’s #1 pick with a 9.5% win probability – his base skill score of 0.959 is streets ahead of the field and his course fit at Aronimink is 0.85. Rory McIlroy carries the highest course setup score of anyone in the model (0.989) and arrives here as reigning Masters champion. Cameron Young leads the in-field SG total chart over the last 16 rounds at +2.36 per round and just won at Doral. You cannot argue with any of them.

But at 9/2, 17/2 and 11/1 respectively, you can certainly find better value elsewhere. The Statz model gives Scheffler a 9.5% win probability – the market prices him at 18.2% implied. That gap does not close. We would rather have two or three of the mid-market running for us at these prices, and the data points to some compelling alternatives.

Our Selections

Ludvig Aberg – 18/1

Ludvig Aberg is the pick who bridges the gap between the chalk and the value. He is ranked #10 in the Statz projections with a 2.0% win probability – the market prices him at 5.3% implied at 18/1, which means the model actually undervalues him somewhat relative to where he sits in the hierarchy. More importantly, his recent form score of 0.83 is the highest of any player in the top ten, and he ranks second among all field members for SG total over the last 16 rounds at +2.28 per round. The Swede is playing as well as anyone outside of Cameron Young right now. His course setup score of 0.89 suggests Aronimink suits his controlled, ball-first approach game. The 26-year-old has already shown he can contend at majors on limited experience. At 18/1 he is the anchor of this portfolio.

Viktor Hovland – 50/1

Viktor Hovland arrives at a price the market has misjudged. The Statz course fit score for Hovland at Aronimink is 0.97 – the second-highest of any player in the top 15 of the projections – and his conditions score is 0.97, suggesting the model sees the setup as near-ideal for his game. The course history score of 0.72 is strong. At 50/1, the model’s 1.89% win probability implies fair value around 50/1, but that is before accounting for his major pedigree: four top-10 major finishes in three years, including T2 PGA 2023, T3 PGA 2024, and T3 US Open 2025. He has a specific affinity for the PGA Championship and his two best major results came at this event. The 2026 season has been inconsistent – T10 Phoenix, T13 PLAYERS, T13 Bay Hill, T18 Masters – but the course fit data and the major pedigree make 50/1 a price worth taking. The model ranks him #12 in a 156-man field.

J.J. Spaun – 55/1

J.J. Spaun is the approach play pick and the most data-backed selection on this card. He ranks first among all players in the field for SG approach over the last 24 rounds at +1.004 strokes gained per round. On a Donald Ross design where approach play accounts for 37% of the scoring variance, that matters more than almost any other single metric. The Statz model has him #9 in the projections with a projected score of -6, a 2.1% win probability and a 50% top-20 probability. The market prices him at 55/1 – an implied 1.79%. That is a meaningful gap for a player who is currently ranked OWGR 8 and leads the field in the most important skill category for this specific course. Spaun has not been the most consistent performer in majors to date, but the number one approach player in the field at Aronimink at 55/1 is exactly the kind of bet this course profile demands.

Nicolai Hojgaard – 55/1 (EW)

Nicolai Hojgaard is the longshot with the strongest model backing of any player near this price. The Statz model ranks him #5 in the entire field with a 4.6% win probability – at 55/1 (implied 1.79%), this is the largest positive gap between model probability and market price of any player in the top 30 projections. His course fit score at Aronimink is 0.978, the highest of any player in the projected top ten. His course setup score is 0.967. The model consistently scores him as one of the best fits for this specific track. The 25-year-old Dane has a SG total of +1.44 per round over the last 16 rounds and a 50% top-5 probability per the model – at 55/1, that is a significant price discrepancy. He may lack the profile of a major champion in the public eye, but the data says he belongs at the top of this leaderboard. At four times the price of Aberg for a model-rated top-5, this is the value play of the week.

Summary

• Ludvig Aberg – 18/1 (EW)
• Viktor Hovland – 50/1 (EW)
• J.J. Spaun – 55/1 (EW)
• Nicolai Hojgaard – 55/1 (EW)

All selections each-way. EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365.