Valero Texas Open 2026 — Betting Preview

The Masters week is next. But first, 139 players have to navigate TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course in what’s become one of the more intriguing fields of the early season. The Valero Texas Open ($9.8m, Apr 2-5) has a habit of throwing up big-price winners – and the Statz model has a few names worth knowing about.

What Does It Take to Win at TPC San Antonio?

The Oaks Course is a Greg Norman design that punishes loose driving. Fairways measure just 25-30 yards wide, the rough is genuine ryegrass and fescue, and the Champion Bermudagrass greens – overseeded with Poa Trivialis – play firm and fast when the Texas wind gets up.

Top 10 Trends on Statz paint a clear picture: approach play is the single biggest differentiator, with contenders averaging +1.03 SG on approach, followed by putting (+0.76) and scrambling around the greens (+0.44). Ball-strikers who can also putt on Bermuda greens dominate this leaderboard. Jordan Spieth (2021), Akshay Bhatia (2024) and Brian Harman (2025 – winning at -9 in brutal 25-30mph wind) all fit that profile.

The winning score swings wildly depending on conditions. In a benign week it’ll be -18 to -20; in a gale, -9 might do it. Statz models the projected winning score this week at -14.

Who’s Trending Right Now?

The Statz trending leaderboard (last 16 rounds) has some interesting names in this field. Collin Morikawa sits #1 for SG approach in recent form (+1.22/rd) and Tommy Fleetwood leads the entire tour for SG around the green (+0.89/rd). Sudarshan Yellamaraju sits third for SG total in the last 16 rounds at +2.14 – largely under the radar.

Those three are among the names the model likes this week. Here’s the selection breakdown.

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Selection 1 – Tommy Fleetwood (16/1)

Tommy Fleetwood is the Statz model’s top-ranked player this week, projected at -14 with a 9.6% win probability and 70.9% chance of a top 10. That’s a meaningful gap over the rest of the field.

Fleetwood is trending at +1.23 SG per round and leads the entire tour for SG around the green over his last 16 rounds (+0.89). On a course that demands scrambling ability and a sharp short game to convert approach opportunities, that combination is exactly what the Top 10 Trends profile calls for.

His Find Me a Winner score is +65.7 – fifth highest in the field – and Statz shows a +3.7% edge over the market implied probability at 16/1. He’s the anchor selection.

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Selection 2 – Russell Henley (16/1)

Russell Henley is the Statz model’s second-ranked player this week at 8.3% win probability and 69.1% top 10 projection. The model has him joint at the top with Fleetwood – and he brings the better course history.

Henley ranks 5th in the field for course history, averaging a finishing position of 10.2 at TPC San Antonio. His trending SG is +1.38 with an upward arrow from Statz. Ball-striker, accurate, calm under pressure – the profile that scores at this track.

His Find Me a Winner score is +61.6, and the model carries +2.4% edge at the 16/1 price. Two at 16/1, both backed with confidence.

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Selection 3 – Sudarshan Yellamaraju (45/1)

This is the value play. Sudarshan Yellamaraju is ranked #1 on the Statz Find Me a Winner table this week – a multi-factor score of +80.9 combining form, course history, trending SG and tournament fit. Nobody in the 139-player field scores higher.

His form rating is 83/100, and he’s #3 on the tour for SG total over the last 16 rounds at +2.14 per round. At 45/1, the market is clearly underrating a player the Statz model has at the very top of its value rankings. That kind of model-vs-market divergence is exactly what the Statz bet builder tool is built to surface.

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The Longshot – Thorbjorn Olesen (55/1)

Thorbjorn Olesen has the best course history record in the entire field at TPC San Antonio – averaging a finishing position of 9.5 across his two appearances here. That’s #1 in the field for that metric.

Statz projects him at -9 with a 50% cut probability and 2.0% win chance. At 55/1, the bookmaker implied probability is around 1.8%. Small edge, but combined with the best course fit history in the field, it’s worth a small each-way interest.

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Summary

• Tommy Fleetwood 16/1 – #1 Statz model (9.6% win), +1.23 trending SG, leads tour ATG last 16 rounds
• Russell Henley 16/1 – #2 Statz model (8.3% win), avg course finish 10.2, +1.38 trending SG
• Sudarshan Yellamaraju 45/1 – #1 Find Me a Winner score in field (+80.9), +2.14 trending SG
• Thorbjorn Olesen 55/1 – #1 course history avg position (9.5 in 2 apps)

EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365