TOUR Championship 2026 Power Rankings - Top 10 Contenders at East Lake

Thirty players, no cut, $40m and the FedExCup, decided at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta from 27 to 30 August. In a 30-man field the question is never who is talented, but whose talents this par-70, 7,440-yard layout pays for.

How the Statz Power Index is built

This is not the projections list. The Statz model has its own weightings and its own order, and lives behind Statz Pro. The Power Index uses four public inputs: the Statz Rankings index (35%), SG total over the last 24 rounds (20%), a venue skill match weighting each player's last-24 SG splits by East Lake's demand profile (30%), and venue pedigree, the best finish in the last two editions (15%).

The venue profile does the heavy lifting. Separation at East Lake comes 35.1% from approach play, 29.9% from putting, 23.2% off the tee and only 11.7% around the green, with top-ten finishers averaging +0.44 SG approach and +0.38 SG putting. Editions through 2024 used staggered starting strokes, so old winning totals are not straight stroke play; placings are, which is why pedigree is scored on finishes. SG ranks below are Tour-wide over the last 24 rounds; form ranks are last-16-round SG total among the 23 entrants with a rated sample.

10. Matt Fitzpatrick

The Index's loudest internal argument. Fitzpatrick is 2nd in the Statz Rankings, higher than anyone here bar one, 9th on Tour on last-24 SG total at +1.42, and 3rd in the field on form at +1.48. On three inputs he belongs in the top five; the fourth is a zero. He played neither the 2024 nor the 2025 TOUR Championship, so the pedigree window gives him nothing. Further back it reads T15 in 2022 and T9 in 2023.

9. Chris Gotterup

Statz Rank 9, 12th on Tour at +1.35, 6th in the field on form, and a T4 at the BMW Championship last time out. His East Lake debut last year was a T10, clearing the pedigree bar at the first attempt, and he is 14th on Tour off the tee (+0.57). The reservation matters most of all here: approach play at +0.22 ranks 87th, and this venue pays 35.1% for exactly that.

8. Hideki Matsuyama

The quiet accumulator. Matsuyama is 5th on Tour on last-24 SG total at +1.64, the third-best figure in this field, and 4th on form at +1.46, off a run of T3 at the 3M Open, T5 at the Rocket Classic and T7 at both the Wyndham and FedEx St. Jude. The splits fit, +0.70 approach (17th) and +0.54 off the tee (16th), but the hole is glaring: a putter at 0.00, 120th on Tour, on greens worth 30%.

7. Sam Burns

Burns is 5th on Tour on approach at +0.97, one of three men in this field inside the top five, and adds +0.55 putting (24th). Point that at a venue weighted 35% approach and 30% putting and the skill match comes out top four, despite a Statz Rank of 11. He has been here and gone well, T12 in 2024 and T7 last year. What holds him at seventh is the driver: -0.07 off the tee, 158th.

6. Rory McIlroy

Third in the Statz Rankings and the best driver in this top ten at +0.61 off the tee, 10th on Tour. He was 3rd at the BMW a fortnight after finishing 66th at the FedEx St. Jude, his year in two data points. Champion here in 2022, T9 in 2024, T23 last year. The Index is not warmer because the middle of the game is merely fine: +0.35 approach (56th), +0.33 putting (55th).

5. Patrick Cantlay

Nobody in world golf has hit their irons better over the last 24 rounds. Cantlay's +1.07 SG approach is 1st on Tour of 264 rated players, which at the most approach-dependent venue on this stretch is the most valuable single number here. He is 4th in the Statz Rankings, 5th on form, and was 2nd at the BMW. East Lake knows him: champion in 2021, T17 in 2024, T2 last year. The offset is the flat stick at -0.04, 130th.

4. Tommy Fleetwood

The defending champion, and with Scheffler one of only two men in the field on a maximum pedigree score. Fleetwood won here last year at 18 under, having been 20th in 2024 under the old format. He is 5th in the Statz Rankings, 17th on Tour at +1.30, and 6th on Tour around the green at +0.56, bettered in this field only by Clark. The wobble is recent: 19th of 23 on form, and a T47 at the BMW.

3. Russell Henley

The best putter in professional golf right now, on the numbers. Henley's +1.01 SG putting ranks 1st of all 265 rated players, and East Lake hands out 29.9% of its separation on the greens. Add +0.42 off the tee (35th) and +0.38 approach (48th) and the skill match comes out third in this field. Pedigree is current: T4 in 2024, T2 last year, T14 in 2023. The alarming column is around the green, where -0.52 ranks 256th of 265, the worst in this field. On the course that asks least of the short game, it is a risk worth carrying.

2. Wyndham Clark

Clark won the BMW Championship last week and the underlying numbers are not a fluke. He is 3rd on Tour on last-24 SG total at +1.85, 2nd in the field on form at +1.57, 3rd on Tour putting at +0.94 and 5th around the green at +0.58. That putting figure, on bermudagrass greens worth 30% of the separation, is why the skill match rates him second only to Scheffler. Pedigree backs it: 8th here in 2024, 3rd in 2023, no start last year. Where the Index holds its nose is ball-striking, +0.08 off the tee (122nd) and +0.25 approach (79th). One tension worth flagging: this week's betting preview passed on him at 16/1 because back-to-back wins are rare.

1. Scottie Scheffler

He is first on all four inputs. His Statz Rankings index of 2.18 is 61% clear of the next man in the field, he is 1st on Tour on last-24 SG total at +2.38, and 1st in the field on form at +2.02. The splits offer nothing to punish: +0.82 putting (6th), +0.71 approach (16th), +0.50 off the tee (24th), +0.34 around the green (22nd), so no demand weight here finds a weakness. He owns the place too, winning in 2024 at 30 under and finishing T4 last year. There is no clever contrarian case.

The name that is missing

Xander Schauffele finishes 13th on the Power Index and misses this ten. The Statz projections model rates him inside its own top ten, the most interesting disagreement of the week.

The Index is cold for defensible reasons: 40th on Tour on last-24 SG total at +0.76, 18th of 23 in this field on form, approach play at +0.14 and 108th on Tour, and a putter at -0.02 and 127th. Two of East Lake's three biggest demand weights are aimed at the weakest parts of his current game. What it cannot see is the record. Schauffele has finished T5, 4th, 2nd and T4 in his last four appearances here, in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, the most consistent set of East Lake results anyone in this field has produced. He did not play in 2025, so the pedigree window catches only one.

A four-input index weighs recent output heavily; a model that knows how a specific player performs at a specific venue can reach a different answer, and this week it has. The full model order, win probabilities and projected totals for all 30 players are in Statz Pro projections, and the three each-way selections are in the TOUR Championship betting preview.