Wyndham Championship 2026 Betting Preview – Four Picks for Sedgefield

The PGA Tour's regular season signs off at Sedgefield Country Club this week (6–9 August, $8.5m purse), and for a big chunk of this 161-man field it is the last chance to play their way into the FedExCup Playoffs — the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the BMW and the TOUR Championship all follow in the next three weeks. Expect desperation, expect low scoring: the Statz model projects a winning score of 20 under with the cut falling around three under.

What does it take to win at Sedgefield?

Sedgefield is a Donald Ross classic — a par 70 measuring just 7,131 yards, the shortest test the Tour visits at this time of year, with Bermudagrass from tee to green. Short does not mean easy, but it does mean specific: this is one of the most approach-dominant venues the Tour visits. The model weights iron play at 40% of what separates the leaderboard here, with putting at 33% — together nearly three-quarters of the test. Driving barely registers at 18%.

The recent top tens confirm it: players finishing top 10 here have averaged +1.08 strokes gained on approach and +0.88 putting per round, against just +0.49 off the tee. And the roll of honour is a list of precision golfers rather than bombers — Cameron Young (2025), Aaron Rai (2024), Lucas Glover (2023), Tom Kim (2022) and Kevin Kisner (2021). The average winning score across the last four editions is 20 under. Leave the driver in the bag; bring the wedges. Our course fit guide explains how to read venue demands like these.

Who is trending right now?

On last-16-round strokes gained, this week's field is led by Blades Brown (+2.05 per round), Ben Kohles (+2.04) and Tom Kim (+1.93), with Chandler Phillips, Jackson Koivun and Ryan Gerard all around +1.70. The biggest form swings belong to Chandler Blanchet, whose last eight rounds are 4.43 strokes per round better than his previous eight, and Rickie Fowler (+4.27).

A word on the top of the market, and a confession. Three weeks ago, previewing the 3M Open, we wrote that Jackson Koivun was the name everyone would ask about — but that at 33/1 the market had already priced his tiny sample. Watch, don't bet, we said. He won. He is 16/1 this week and our model now rates him second in the field; defending champion Cameron Young is its outright favourite at 8/1. Both are respected. Neither makes our card — because at 8/1 and 16/1 you are paying for the win and getting little for the places, and this is a golf course where 20 under wins and the leaderboard bunches. Our four selections are all 28/1 or bigger, chosen to attack five each-way places rather than a single outcome. Our each-way guide explains the maths.

Selection 1: Tom Kim — 1.5pts EW at 28/1 (bet365)

Start with the stat that matters most this week. At a course where iron play is 40% of the test, Tom Kim ranks 2nd in this entire field in strokes gained on approach over his last 16 rounds (+1.29 per round) — behind only William Mouw, who has no market price. He is also third in the field in total strokes gained across the same window (+1.93 per round). Add the history — he won this tournament in 2022 and carries a 69% course-history score — and the recent results: a win three starts ago and a 3rd inside his last six. The model ranks him #8 with a 31% top-10 projection; with five each-way places at 28/1, that is the number that pays.

Selection 2: Mac Meissner — 1pt EW at 45/1 (bet365)

Meissner is the model's own value call: #5 in the field at 4.3% against the 2.2% his 45/1 implies, with a 35% top-10 projection. Behind it sits the strongest course-history score among the leading contenders (70%) and a 76% conditions rating. Two honest caveats: two missed cuts inside his last six starts alongside a 6th, and an approach game that ranks outside the top 75 in this field over his last 16 rounds — not ideal at a venue that asks for irons above all else. This is a bet on the model’s composite edge and his record here, not on current ball-striking. At 45s with five places, the edge is worth the volatility.

Selection 3: Blades Brown — 1pt EW at 60/1 (bet365)

Nobody in this field is playing better golf. Brown leads all 161 entrants in strokes gained over his last 16 rounds (+2.05 per round), and the finishes back the numbers rather than flattering them: 11th, 12th, 14th and 9th in his last four starts, with a 3rd inside his last six. He has not missed a cut in that run. Our model is cooler on him than we are — it ranks him 17th, largely because it has less history to lean on — but it still projects a 17% top-10 chance at a price implying 1.6%. He is no one-trick pony either: 6th in this field in approach play over the same 16 rounds (+0.97). A young player in the best form of anyone here, at 60/1, with five places: that is an each-way bet.

The longshot: Michael Kim — 0.5pt EW at 66/1 (bet365)

Michael Kim earns his place on fit and finishes rather than raw form. The model scores his game profile at 82% for course fit — one of the strongest matches in the field for what Sedgefield demands — and he arrives sharp, his last two starts reading 8th and 10th. The model gives him a 22% top-10 chance against a price implying just 1.5%, the widest gap of anyone on our card. At 66/1 with five places, we only need the recent scoring to hold up.

Wyndham Championship 2026 — the picks

• Tom Kim — 1.5pts EW at 28/1 (2nd in field on approach form, 2022 champion here, won three starts ago)
• Mac Meissner — 1pt EW at 45/1 (model #5, 4.3% win vs 2.2% implied)
• Blades Brown — 1pt EW at 60/1 (leads the field in strokes gained form; 11-12-14-9 in his last four starts)
• Michael Kim — 0.5pt EW at 66/1 (82% course fit, 8th and 10th in his last two starts, 22% top-10)

All prices bet365, each-way 1/4 odds, 5 places, correct at the time of writing (Wednesday 5 August). 8pts total staked, per the Statz tipster plan — now +43.6 points across 12 settled events at a 45% return on investment. Follow the numbers all week on the Wyndham Championship hub — projections re-run as the odds move. For the wider contender picture, our Wyndham Championship 2026 Power Rankings count down the top 10 at Sedgefield on public data alone.

Update: the Wyndham Championship is done. Michael Brennan closed with a 64 to win at 22 under, Tom Kim placed at 28/1 for a winning week of plus 1.9 points, and we settle all four picks in our Wyndham Championship 2026 review.