Rocket Classic 2026 Betting Preview - 4 Picks for Detroit

The PGA Tour heads to Michigan for the Rocket Classic, played over Detroit Golf Club from 30 July to 2 August. There is $10,000,000 on the table, 158 players in the field, and a golf course that has never asked anyone to grind out a par-fest. Aldrich Potgieter defends.

Our model projects a winning score of -22 and a cut line around -5. That is not a bold call: across seven editions the historic winning score at Detroit averages -22.3. This is a birdie contest, and it rewards a very specific kind of player.

What does it take to win at Detroit Golf Club?

Detroit Golf Club is a par 70 of 7,328 yards, and the temptation is to assume length is king. The data says otherwise. Our course demand profile, built from seven editions, splits the separation like this:

• Putting - 38.5%
• Approach - 35.4%
• Off the tee - 13.8%
• Around the green - 12.3%

Putting and approach account for 73.9% of what separates this field. Driving is the least important skill on the board. Top-ten finishers across those editions averaged +0.99 strokes gained putting and +0.91 approach, against just +0.35 off the tee.

The traditional numbers say the same. The average top-ten finisher here drives it 303.1 yards - solid, not spectacular - hits 69.3% of fairways, 78.8% of greens, and scrambles at 74.6%. You do not need to overpower Detroit. You need to hit your irons close and hole out.

Scoring has been consistently deep. Average top-ten score by edition: -20.2 in 2025, -15.2 in 2024, -20.3 in 2023, -18.8 in 2022 and -16.4 in 2021. Recent champions read Potgieter, Cam Davis, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau and Cam Davis again.

Who is trending right now?

On our last-16-rounds form measure, the hottest players in this field are Jackson Koivun (+2.54 strokes gained per round), Wyndham Clark (+2.34), Chandler Phillips (+2.13) and Si Woo Kim (+2.10).

Koivun comes with a warning attached. He arrives having just won the 3M Open, but the market has already repriced him at 18/1 while our model has him 11th - the value went the moment he holed the winning putt. Phillips, by contrast, is still available at a three-figure price, and we come back to him below.

A word on the two-time champion. Cam Davis won here in 2021 and 2024, and on course pedigree alone he would be a headline pick. His 2026 reads seven missed cuts in his last ten starts with a best finish of 21st. Our model ranks him 149th of 158. Course horses are only worth backing when the horse can still run.

Selection 1: Chris Gotterup - 18/1

Chris Gotterup is the model favourite at 11.7% to win. Against bet365's 18/1 (5.3% implied) that is an edge of +6.4 percentage points - more than double anything else on the board.

The case is weight of form. He has not missed a cut in his last eight starts, a run containing a victory plus finishes of 18th at The Open, 11th, 10th and 14th. His course-setup score of 0.97 is effectively the best in the field for this venue's dimensions, and the model gives him an 89% chance of playing the weekend, the highest of any player here.

The honest caveat: his course-fit score is 0.42. His game is led by his driver (+0.66 strokes gained off the tee across 100 rounds) while Detroit asks first for putting and approach, where he is more ordinary. His Detroit record is unremarkable too - 26th, 67th and 49th. We are backing current form and a clear pricing error, not a perfect stylistic match.

Selection 2: Si Woo Kim - 20/1

Si Woo Kim is the model's fourth pick at 7.1%, against 20/1 with bet365 for an edge of +2.3pp - the second largest we can find.

He fits the examination. Detroit's second-biggest demand is approach play, and approach is the strongest part of his game at +0.63 strokes gained across his last 100 rounds. He is fourth in this field on last-16-rounds form at +2.10 per round, and his recent finishes read 6th at The Open, 9th, 44th, a missed cut, 10th and 2nd. An 84% make-cut projection reflects a player in control of his game.

His Detroit record is mixed - 14th in 2022, 58th in 2021, 84th last year - and his course-setup score of 0.35 says he is on the shorter side here. But at a venue where driving is only 13.8% of the separation, that matters less than it would almost anywhere else on tour.

Selection 3: Russell Henley - 25/1

Russell Henley is the purest stylistic fit in the entire field. Our course-fit score rates him 0.87, the highest of any of the 158 players here, and the model has him third overall at 5.5% to win. At 25/1 with bet365 that is an edge of +1.6pp.

Detroit asks for approach play and putting, and Henley's game has no hole in either. Across his last 100 rounds he gains +0.42 strokes on approach and +0.29 putting, with a total of +1.19 - a balanced, error-free profile rather than one big weapon. The model gives him an 86.2% chance of making the cut, second highest in the field behind only Gotterup.

He is also in form. His last eight starts include a victory four back, and his two most recent are 9th and 12th. His single previous visit to Detroit produced a 10th in 2022.

The caveat is length: at 290 yards off the tee he is the shortest of our selections and his course-setup score is just 0.05. That would be disqualifying at plenty of venues. At Detroit, where driving is 13.8% of the separation and the two skills he does best are 73.9% of it, it is a trade worth making.

The longshot: Chandler Phillips - 110/1

Chandler Phillips is the form pick of the week at a price that does not reflect it. He is third in this entire field on last-16-rounds strokes gained at +2.13 per round, behind only Jackson Koivun and Wyndham Clark, and his recent-form factor of 0.73 is among the best available.

The trajectory is the story. His last four starts read 3rd, 15th, 15th and a missed cut, having missed three cuts in a row before that. Something has clicked. He also has a Detroit record that fits the pattern - 13th here in 2025 after a 67th on debut in 2024 - and a course-history score of 0.61 to go with it.

We should be straight about why this is a half-point rather than a headline bet. Our model rates him 33rd at 0.5% to win, which against 110/1 is a small negative edge of -0.4pp. That is driven by his base-skill score of 0.54: he does not yet have the body of elite results the model wants to see, and a 67.4% make-cut projection is modest. This is a bet on a hot hand and a course he has already gone well at, taken at a price where being wrong costs very little.

One note on price. We quote bet365 at 110/1 for consistency with the each-way terms below, but midnite are 175/1 at the time of writing, with Ladbrokes and Coral both 100/1. Shop around on this one.

Where we are not playing

Two names the market likes that our model does not. Cameron Young is our model's second pick at 8.6%, but after his runner-up finish at The Open the market has moved to 11/1 and the edge has all but vanished at +0.3pp. Wyndham Clark has the hottest ball-striking form in the field, but a course-fit score of 0.33 and a course-history score of 0.40 are the two weakest of any leading contender, and his edge is only +0.5pp. Both are fine golfers this week. Neither is a bet at these prices.

The bets

• Chris Gotterup 18/1 - 1.5pt each-way (model #1, +6.4pp edge, 89% to make the cut)
• Si Woo Kim 20/1 - 1pt each-way (+2.3pp, approach game suits, 4th in field on recent form)
• Russell Henley 25/1 - 1pt each-way (+1.6pp, best course fit in the field, 86% to make the cut)
• Chandler Phillips 110/1 - 0.5pt each-way (longshot: 3rd in the field on recent form, 13th here last year)

All prices bet365, each-way at 1/4 odds, 5 places. Total staked: 8 points.

The full model output - win, top-five, top-ten and make-cut probabilities for all 158 players - is on our Golf Projections pages, along with where the model disagrees with the market across the whole field. Our golf betting guides cover the staking approach behind these selections.

For a different angle on the same field, our Rocket Classic Power Rankings count down the top 10 contenders using only public data - a list that deliberately comes out in a different order to the model.

Update: the Rocket Classic is done. Michael Thorbjornsen closed with a 63 to win at 18 under, all four of these picks lost, and we settle every one of them in our Rocket Classic 2026 review.