3M Open 2026 Betting Preview – Four Picks for TPC Twin Cities

Straight off the back of Royal Birkdale, the PGA Tour pitches up in Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities (23–26 July, $8.8m purse). This is usually a week for the chasing pack, but the 2026 edition has real star power at the top: Scottie Scheffler headlines a 154-man field alongside Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Maverick McNealy and the defending champion, Kurt Kitayama. The Statz model projects a winning score around 20 under with the cut near four under — pack a putter and a birdie habit.

What does it take to win at TPC Twin Cities?

The Arnold Palmer-designed TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 stretching 7,431 yards, bentgrass wall to wall with Kentucky bluegrass rough. Bentgrass means true-rolling surfaces — this is a week that rewards pure putting and sharp iron play, and the course's skill-demand profile says exactly that. Our model weights putting at 36% and approach at 31% of what separates the leaderboard here — two-thirds of the test — with off-the-tee at 20% and around-the-green at 13%.

The recent top tens back it up: players finishing top 10 here have averaged +1.01 strokes gained putting and +0.89 approach per round, against +0.57 off the tee. And you have to go low: the average winning score across the last four editions is 20 under. Recent winners — Kitayama (2025), Jhonattan Vegas (2024), Lee Hodges (2023), Tony Finau (2022), Cameron Champ (2021) — confirm this is a course where a hot week with irons and flat-stick beats reputation. For more on matching player profiles to venues, see our course fit betting guide.

Who is trending right now?

On last-16-round strokes gained, the field's form men are Scheffler (+2.12 per round), Jackson Koivun (+2.08), and Max Homa and Tom Kim (both +1.55). The biggest improver teeing it up is Lucas Glover, whose last eight rounds (+2.48 SG per round) are a full 4.6 strokes per round better than his previous eight — the sharpest positive swing on Tour right now — with Corey Conners (+3.2 swing) close behind.

The name everyone will ask about is Koivun: second in this field on L16 form and top five among this week's entrants in the Statz Rankings (world #29) — off just three professional starts. The model makes him #15 in this field, a real contender already, but at 33/1 the market is paying him like one too. Watch, don't bet, this week.

And the favourite? For once, model and market agree: our numbers make Scheffler a 24.3% chance — with a field-best 71% top-10 probability and the lead in the first-round-leader picture at 5.4% — against the 26.7% his 11/4 with bet365 implies. That's a fair price, and fair prices aren't bets. This is a week to attack the each-way places — our each-way guide covers why.

Selection 1: Kurt Kitayama — 1.5pts EW at 25/1 (bet365)

The Statz model ranks the defending champion #2 in the field — behind only Scheffler — with a 6.8% win chance against a bet365 price implying just 3.9%. That's the biggest positive edge on the board, and the market has actually drifted him from 22s. Kitayama won here last year, scores 71% for course history and a 95% course-setup rating (highest of the leading contenders), has a 63% recent-form factor, and projects a 37% chance of another top-10 this week. Champions defending on a course that suits them this well at 25/1 don't come along often.

Selection 2: Max Homa — 1pt EW at 45/1 (bet365)

The strongest course-fit signal among the priced contenders belongs to Homa at 95% — and the form is here too: +1.55 SG per round over his last 16 (third-best of anyone teeing it up), a 70% recent-form factor and a runner-up finish three starts ago. The model ranks him #4 with a 2.65% win chance against 2.2% implied and a 25% top-10 projection. Having been backed into 40s earlier in the week, he's drifted back out to 45/1 — extra juice on the field's best-fitting form player.

Selection 3: Mac Meissner — 1pt EW at 45/1 (bet365)

Meissner is the pure model call of the week: #5 in the field at 2.65%, against the 2.2% his 45/1 implies, with a 24% top-10 projection, a 64% recent-form factor — and a 6th and a 3rd inside his last six starts. No single factor jumps off the page; this is the composite quietly rating him above bigger names, and backing the model when it disagrees with the market is the whole point of the exercise. At 45s with five places, we're happy to take that side.

The longshot: William Mouw — 0.5pt EW at 60/1 (bet365)

Mouw is the model's #8 in the field at 2.4% — comfortably above the 1.6% his 60/1 implies. His course-setup rating (88%) and conditions score (70%) both flag this as his kind of week, he arrives with +0.95 SG per round over his last 16, a 67% recent-form factor and a 10th place two starts back, and the model gives him a 22% top-10 chance. At 60/1 with five places on offer, that's an each-way bet that pays for plenty of misses.

3M Open 2026 — the picks

• Kurt Kitayama — 1.5pts EW at 25/1 (model #2, 6.8% win, defending champion, biggest edge in the field)
• Max Homa — 1pt EW at 45/1 (95% course fit, +1.55 SG L16, model #4)
• Mac Meissner — 1pt EW at 45/1 (model #5, 2.65% win vs 2.2% implied)
• William Mouw — 0.5pt EW at 60/1 (model #8, 2.4% win vs 1.6% implied)

All prices bet365, each-way 1/4 odds, 5 places, correct at the time of writing (Tuesday 21 July). 8pts total staked, per the Statz tipster plan. See who makes our 3M Open Power Rankings, and follow the numbers all week on the 3M Open tournament hub — projections re-run as the odds move.