3M Open 2026 Power Rankings – Top 10 Contenders at TPC Twin Cities

The 3M Open rolls into TPC Twin Cities this week (23–26 July) with a stronger field than this event usually attracts and a course that historically surrenders 20 under to the winner. Someone is going to make a lot of birdies in Blaine.

These are the Statz Power Rankings — and a word on method, because it matters. This list is not our projections model's top 10 (that lives in Projections, and it tells a different story). The Power Index blends four public Statz surfaces: position in the Statz Rankings, strokes gained form over recent rounds (see Trending), how a player's SG profile matches what TPC Twin Cities actually demands — putting (36%) and approach (31%) dominate here — and real results at this venue. Quality, form, fit, pedigree. Here's who it likes.

10. Doug Ghim

The quiet man of the list. Ghim ranks 28th in the Statz Rankings, has gained +1.35 strokes per round over his last 16, and sits 5th on Tour in SG off the tee over his last 24 rounds (+0.78). The driver won't separate him much at this venue — but total-game form like his travels anywhere.

9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout

The South African is 13th on Tour in SG approach over his last 24 rounds (+0.74) at a course where iron play is nearly a third of the test. Bezuidenhout was 20th here last year, ranks 35th in the Statz Rankings, and arrives with steady rather than spectacular form — a floor-over-ceiling profile that fits a course where the top 10s are built on precision.

8. Jake Knapp

The pedigree is undeniable: Knapp finished 3rd here last year and ranks 30th in the Statz Rankings. The honesty is also required: his last four starts read MC-55-MC-MC, and his recent strokes gained numbers have sagged with them. This ranking is a bet that TPC Twin Cities — a course that clearly suits him — is where the reset happens. Handle with care.

7. Matt Kuchar

Evergreen. The veteran ranks 11th on Tour in SG putting over his last 24 rounds (+0.74) — at the course whose single biggest demand is the flat stick — and he finished 3rd here in 2024. Kuchar sits 60th in the Statz Rankings, the lowest of anyone on this list, but venue fit and pedigree drag him firmly into the frame at a course that rewards exactly what he still does best.

6. Jackson Suber

One of the sneaky-good seasons on Tour: Suber is 10th on Tour in SG total over his last 24 rounds (+1.50) and 9th in approach (+0.77). No course history here yet and a 54th-place Statz Ranking that hasn't caught up with the golf he's currently playing — which is precisely the kind of gap this event has a habit of rewarding.

5. Tom Kim

Here's a stat: Tom Kim is #1 on the entire PGA Tour in SG approach over his last 24 rounds (+1.26), and TPC Twin Cities weights approach second only to putting. Add +1.55 strokes gained per round across his last 16 and you have a player whose current game maps almost perfectly onto this test. The short game remains the leak — but on a birdie-fest layout, elite iron play covers a lot of sins.

4. Maverick McNealy

McNealy finished 3rd here in 2024, ranks 24th in the Statz Rankings, and his short-game profile is built for this venue: 10th on Tour around the greens and 15th in putting over his last 24 rounds. When the winning score starts with a two, you want players who never give shots back on and around the greens. That's McNealy.

3. Jackson Koivun

Three professional starts. Fifth in this field in the Statz Rankings (world #29 overall). Second in the field in strokes gained form (+2.08 per round over his last 16, behind only Scheffler), 7th on Tour in SG total and 9th in putting over his last 24 rounds — at a putting course. The Auburn product has a 10th and a 23rd in his three starts and is the most exciting data profile golf has produced this summer. The sample is tiny; the numbers in it are not.

2. Kurt Kitayama

The defending champion's record at TPC Twin Cities reads: won it last year, 6th the year before. That's not coincidence — it's course fit expressing itself twice. Kitayama ranks 19th in the Statz Rankings — second-best in this field — and arrives in solid form at just under a stroke gained per round over his last 24. Our betting preview has more on why we think the market still underrates him this week.

1. Scottie Scheffler

No suspense here. Scheffler is #1 in the Statz Rankings by the width of Minnesota — his +2.13 Statz Index is 1.3 strokes clear of anyone else teeing it up — and he leads this field in strokes gained form too (+2.12 per round, last 16). He hasn't played this event in either of the last two editions, which is the only asterisk available, and on a course this scoreable the field's depth matters more than usual. But quality is quality: he's the best player in the world playing the best golf in this field.

The name that's missing

Sharp readers will notice Max Homa doesn't make the ten — despite the strongest course-fit signal in the field and top-three form on the trending page. The Power Index docks him for a Statz Ranking that has slipped to world #64 and for skipping TPC Twin Cities in both of the last two editions; our projections model — which weighs things differently — rates him considerably higher, and he features prominently in our betting preview picks. When the public numbers and the model disagree, that's usually where the interesting bets live. For the model's actual view of every player in the field — win probabilities, projected scores and the full 7-factor breakdown — that's what Statz Pro Projections is for.