BMW Championship 2026 Power Rankings – Top 10 Contenders at Bellerive
The FedExCup Playoffs reach their penultimate stage at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis this week (20-23 August), where the top 50 in the standings play for a $20m purse with no cut. Bellerive is a par 70 of 7,448 yards, new to the rotation in our records and the third host in three years. Scottie Scheffler defends, following Keegan Bradley (2024), Viktor Hovland (2023) and Patrick Cantlay (2021 and 2022).
How the Statz Power Index works
These rankings come from four public inputs and are deliberately not the Statz projections list. The model's ordering, win probabilities and projected totals stay behind the Pro projections wall. What follows you can audit line by line.
The weights: the Statz Rankings index for this 50-man field (35%), our recency-weighted, field-adjusted measure of underlying class; last-24-round SG total (20%); venue skill match (30%), each player's last-24 strokes-gained splits weighted by what this championship demands; and event pedigree (15%), the better of their finishes in the last two editions. One caveat: Bellerive is a first-time host in our database, so pedigree measures how players handled recent BMW setups, not these greens. The demand profile from the last four editions is approach-first: approach 37.1% and putting 30.8%, nearly 68% of the separation, ahead of off-the-tee (19.3%) and around-the-green (12.8%). Top-10 finishers have averaged +0.77 SG approach and +0.63 putting. All ranks below are Tour-wide over 24 rounds.
10. Ludvig Åberg
Åberg makes the list almost entirely on pedigree: T2 at Castle Pines in 2024 and T7 at Caves Valley last year, joint-best in the field. He is 10th on the Statz index and 17th off the tee (+0.56), with T7 in Memphis last week. The fit is the problem: his L24 SG total ranks only 43rd (+0.84), and where this event separates he is exposed, 144th in putting (-0.08) and 196th around the green (-0.18).
9. Tom Kim
The purest ball-striking case on the board. Kim is first on Tour in approach over 24 rounds (+1.12) at a venue weighting approach highest, fourth in SG total (+1.91) and third in this field on L16 form (+2.31). He won the Genesis Scottish Open, was third at the U.S. Open and has T5 at the Wyndham in his last four. What holds him at nine is a pedigree score of zero, having missed both recent BMW fields, plus 113th off the tee (+0.11).
8. Patrick Cantlay
The two-time champion still owns the skill this event prizes most, third on Tour in approach (+1.05), with seventh place on the Statz index and 15th in SG total (+1.37). His last four read T12 in Memphis, T8 at the Rocket Classic, T28 at The Open and a missed cut at the Scottish. The index docks him for a putter at 85th (+0.16) where 30.8% of the weight sits, and BMW returns cooled to T13 and T30 since.
7. Viktor Hovland
The 2023 champion is the field's most volatile good player: fifth in this field on L16 form (+2.08), 11th on Tour in both SG total (+1.48) and approach (+0.85), and a Travelers winner in June. Against that: missed cuts at the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open and The Open, and a putter at 93rd (+0.13). T7 last year supports the case; T26 in 2024 does not.
6. Wyndham Clark
The index rates Clark well above his 16th place on this field's Statz Rankings, and the reason is blunt. He is the number one putter on Tour over 24 rounds (+1.05), sixth around the green (+0.58) and second in SG total (+2.05), at a venue where putting alone carries 30.8%. The U.S. Open champion added T5 in Memphis and third at the Memorial. The hole is real: 150th off the tee (+0.01), 52nd in approach, two missed cuts since June, and pedigree limited to T13 at Castle Pines.
5. Sam Burns
Burns keeps finishing near the top of this tournament: T2 in 2024 and T4 last year, equal-best pedigree in the field. He is sixth on the Statz index, 10th on Tour in SG total (+1.49), 11th in putting (+0.71) and sixth on L16 form (+1.93). The season is relentless without a win: second at the U.S. Open, third at The Open, T3 in Memphis. The reservations are driving (129th) and a short game at 85th.
4. Matt Fitzpatrick
Second in the field on the Statz index and second on L16 form (+2.33), Fitzpatrick has the sharpest all-round profile outside the favourite: sixth in SG total (+1.84), 15th in approach (+0.82), eighth around the green (+0.52). His season holds second at the Canadian Open and fourth at the Travelers. Two things keep him fourth: the putter is 69th (+0.25) where this event demands it, and BMW returns of T28 and T17 are the weakest pedigree line in our top five.
3. Tommy Fleetwood
Nobody has been more dependable here: T5 at Castle Pines and T4 at Caves Valley, top-five in both recent editions. He is third on the Statz index, eighth in SG total (+1.62) and fifth around the green (+0.60), with T7 in Memphis, T4 at The Open and T11 at the U.S. Open this season. What stops him going higher is the flat stick at 112th (+0.06) and an approach rank of 44th (+0.45), good rather than the weapon this profile wants.
2. Si Woo Kim
The quietest elite profile in the field belongs to Kim, who finished second in Memphis last week and scores on all four inputs. He is fourth on the Statz index, fifth in SG total (+1.87) and 14th in approach (+0.83), with no leak anywhere: 28th off the tee, 49th around the green, 60th putting. Pedigree backs it at T5 and T19, and 2026 holds T6 at The Open and second at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. His L16 form, 12th in this field, is the only merely-good input.
1. Scottie Scheffler
No argument is available. Scheffler tops every input: first on Tour in SG total (+2.68), first in this field on L16 form (+2.83), first in the Statz Rankings, fifth in approach (+0.99) and third in putting (+0.89) at a venue asking for exactly those two. He is the defending champion, he won in Memphis last week, and his card carries second at both the 3M Open and the Travelers plus T4 at The Open. Only the around-the-green number (77th, +0.15) is short of elite.
The name that's missing
Rory McIlroy. He is fifth in this field on the Statz Rankings index, second in the world, the reigning Masters champion, and our own model rates him inside its leading group. The Power Index has him 14th, and the arithmetic is unsentimental: his L24 SG total ranks 34th (+0.93), approach 76th (+0.27) and putting 133rd (-0.05), the last two worth 67.9% of the separation here. He is eighth on Tour off the tee (+0.69), the input this profile weights lowest, his BMW record is steady rather than loud at T11 and T12, and he arrives from 66th in Memphis.
Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama sit in the same gap for opposite reasons: Schauffele on 46th in SG total and 145th in approach despite strong pedigree, Matsuyama on zero pedigree after a 2024 withdrawal and T26 last year despite ranking fourth on L16 form.
That is the honest disagreement, worth understanding rather than resolving. A form-and-fit index reads 24 rounds of splits and marks a player down; a model weighting underlying class and course history more heavily sees a champion whose worst category can turn around in a fortnight. The full model ordering, win probabilities and projected totals for all 50 players are on the Statz projections page, and the week's four each-way selections are in the BMW Championship betting preview.