Pakistan vs England ODI Prediction (20 Oct): Projections & Preview
Pakistan host England at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium for an ODI in the Tri-Nation Series. First ball is at 13:00 PKT on Tuesday 20 October (09:00 UK time, 13:30 IST).
This is a season opener for both sides in the triangular tournament. Pakistan sit top of the table on home soil, while England arrive as visitors ranked third. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs England fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is a batting-friendly ground. Across 10 ODI matches here, the average match total stands at 523.1 with an average first-innings score of 278.9. Teams batting first have won just 16.7% of matches at this venue – a strong toss advantage for the side that bowls first.
Seam bowlers have taken 72.4% of wickets at an economy of 5.44, while spinners account for 24.6% of dismissals at 5.47. Pakistan’s record at home here is formidable: they have won six of seven matches since 2021, with only one no-result. Haris Rauf has been their standout bowler at the ground, taking 16 wickets.
The toss angle is clear: bowling first is the call the venue data favours. England will gain significantly if they win the toss and bowl; Pakistan improve their win chances substantially by batting first, though they still face a steeper hill.
Form and Table
Pakistan – 1st (P0 W0 L0)
Pakistan have won their last match. Their recent form shows three home wins and two away defeats:
- 4 Jun vs Australia (H): W – PAK 161/6, AUS 157/10
- 2 Jun vs Australia (H): L – PAK 190/10, AUS 231/9
- 30 May vs Australia (H): W – PAK 202/5, AUS 200/10
- 15 Mar vs Bangladesh (A): L – PAK 279/10, BAN 290/5
- 13 Mar vs Bangladesh (A): W – PAK 274/10, BAN 114/10
England – 3rd (P0 W0 L0)
England have won their last match. All five of their recent games were played at home:
- 27 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): W – ENG 355/7, SL 132/10
- 24 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): L – ENG 305/9, SL 321/6
- 22 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): W – ENG 265/10, SL 176/10
- 19 Jul vs India (H): W – ENG 387/3, IND 360/7
- 16 Jul vs India (H): W – ENG 235/6, IND 233/10
Head-to-Head
England dominate this fixture. In nine ODI meetings across all competitions, England have won eight to Pakistan’s nil, with one no-result. Pakistan have never beaten England in ODIs at this level.
The most recent clash came on 11 November 2023 at Eden Gardens, where England won by 93 runs. Before that, England won by 93 runs at Eden Gardens in November 2023, and by 52 runs at Lord’s in July 2021. Babar Azam leads Pakistan’s run-scorers in these meetings with 476 runs from eight matches, while Shaheen Afridi has taken 9 wickets from six matches. For England, the leading performers from their squad are no longer in the current XI – Jason Roy, Jonny Bairstow and Ben Stokes have all retired from ODI cricket. Joe Root is now the senior figure in this England lineup.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour England, but the margin is tight.
If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 295.1, match total of 574.2. Win probability – PAK 38.7%, ENG 58.3%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 253 to 335.
If England bat first: Projected first-innings total of 299.2, match total of 578.8. Win probability – PAK 48%, ENG 49%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 261 to 337.
The projected match total of 577 is 53.9 runs above the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium average of 523.1. If Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 295.1 is 16.2 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 278.9; if England bat first their projected first innings of 299.2 is 20.3 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 278.9. Match total P10-P90 range: 522 to 632.
Predicted XIs
This is a season opener with no recent XI data. Both sides field from their verified squad lists.
Pakistan (Likely XI)
- Fakhar Zaman
- Babar Azam
- Shadab Khan
- Faheem Ashraf
- Shaheen Afridi
- Salman Agha
- Naseem Shah
- Haris Rauf
- Saim Ayub
- Abrar Ahmed
- Ghazi Ghori
England (Likely XI)
- Sam Curran
- Joe Root
- Liam Dawson
- Adil Rashid
- Ben Duckett
- Jamie Overton
- Tom Banton
- Harry Brook
- Will Jacks
- Josh Tongue
- Mason Crane
These are likely XIs from the verified squad lists. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed lineups on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Arafat Minhas (PAK) – projected 121.6 points. The all-rounder offers dual value with projected runs of 20.2 and 2.01 wickets, making him the safest captain choice across both disciplines.
Vice Captain: Shaheen Afridi (PAK) – projected 105.8 points. Pakistan’s premier fast bowler with 2.06 projected wickets and batting depth at number nine.
Also consider:
- Joe Root (ENG) – projected 91 points – the senior England batter with 51.4 projected runs
- Jamie Overton (ENG) – projected 105.8 points – all-rounder with 26.7 projected runs and 1.2 wickets
- Shadab Khan (PAK) – projected 90.9 points – all-rounder with 27 projected runs and 0.96 wickets
Key Players
Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Pakistan’s linchpin batter and the side’s most prolific run-scorer in recent ODI meetings against England, with 476 runs from eight matches. His experience and consistency are vital in a season opener at home. The projections show him as a cornerstone of Pakistan’s batting strategy.
Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
Pakistan’s spearhead fast bowler with 9 wickets in six ODI meetings against England. His ability to take early wickets and control the powerplay is crucial, especially on a seam-friendly pitch where pace bowlers take 72.4% of wickets. Projected for 2.06 wickets in this match.
Joe Root (England)
England’s senior batter and the leading run-scorer in their current squad. Root is projected for 51.4 runs and brings vast experience to an away assignment in Pakistan. His ability to build innings and anchor the middle order is critical to England’s chances.
Jamie Overton (England)
The all-rounder offers England balance with both bat and ball. Projected for 26.7 runs and 1.2 wickets, Overton can contribute across phases and provides the flexibility England need in the middle order and death bowling.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for the start of play with a temperature of 29 degrees Celsius and humidity at 35%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 10 km/h from the west – ideal batting conditions throughout the day.
Who Will Win Pakistan vs England?
England are the pick at 53.7% win probability, a lean verdict. Pakistan improve their chances significantly if they bowl first – they win 48% in that scenario versus 38.7% batting first. England gain a 9.3-point advantage by bowling first as well, reaching 58.3%. The toss will be decisive here. England’s superior recent form and experience in this fixture give them the edge, but Pakistan’s home advantage and the seam-friendly pitch keep this competitive.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and player performance data on this fixture:
- England to win – backed by the projections at 53.7%, with a stronger case if they bowl first (58.3%)
- Joe Root 40+ runs – England’s senior batter projected for 51.4 runs in a season opener where he will anchor the innings
- Shaheen Afridi 1+ wicket – Pakistan’s spearhead has taken 9 wickets in six ODI meetings with England and is projected for 2.06 wickets
- Match total over 577 – the projected total sits 53.9 runs above the Rawalpindi average, suggesting a high-scoring contest
Pakistan vs England Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Pakistan vs England?
A: England are favoured at 53.7% win probability, but the margin is tight. Pakistan improve to 48% if they bowl first, while England reach 58.3% in that scenario. The toss will be crucial.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 577 runs, which is 53.9 runs above the Rawalpindi average of 523.1. If Pakistan bat first, expect around 295 in the first innings; if England bat first, around 299.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: Bowling first is the call the venue data favours, with teams batting first winning only 16.7% of matches at Rawalpindi. Whichever captain wins the toss should bowl.
Q: Is England a good bet?
A: At 53.7%, England are slight favourites backed by their 8-0 record against Pakistan in ODIs and recent home form. However, Pakistan’s home advantage and seam-friendly pitch keep the match competitive – nothing is guaranteed.
