T20 Blast 2026: Who Does Statz Cricket Think Will Win It?

The Vitality T20 Blast is back – and this season it returns with a new look. Three regional groups replace last year’s two-group format, 18 counties battle it out across a full group stage, and Finals Day awaits the last four standing. Somerset lifted the trophy in 2025 – their third title, matching Hampshire and Leicestershire as the most decorated sides in the competition’s history. The question now is whether anyone can stop them doing it again.

Statz Cricket has an answer – or at least, 5,000 of them.

The new Statz League Probability tool runs a full Monte Carlo simulation of the T20 Blast, playing out every remaining fixture 5,000 times using our own match-winner projections. Each iteration accounts for team ratings, venue factors, head-to-head form, and a blended sanity-check against market odds. The result: a probability for every team to qualify, reach Finals Day, and lift the trophy – updated after every completed match.

With the Blast starting on Friday, here is what the model says before a single ball is bowled.

The Format – New for 2026

Before getting into the numbers, the format matters. This season the Blast reverts to three regional groups:

North Group: Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire, Lancashire, Durham, Yorkshire, Leicestershire
Central Group: Gloucestershire, Northamptonshire, Birmingham Bears, Somerset, Glamorgan, Worcestershire
South Group: Surrey, Sussex, Kent, Middlesex, Essex, Hampshire

Each team plays 10 group matches – home and away against the five other teams in their group, plus one home and one away fixture against a team from outside the group. The top two in each group qualify automatically for the quarter-finals (six teams), with the two best third-placed sides across all groups making up the eight. Quarter-final winners advance to Finals Day, where both semi-finals and the final are played on the same day.

It is a format that rewards consistency across 10 games rather than peaking at the right moment – and the groups are not equal in difficulty.

Surrey: The Team to Beat

Surrey enter the 2026 Blast as the clear model favourite – but it is worth remembering they have only won this competition once, back in 2003 when they lifted the very first Blast title. The numbers rate them highly; the history suggests they have consistently underperformed their talent in this format.

The Statz simulation gives Surrey a 47.2% chance of qualifying from the South Group – nearly 13 percentage points clear of second-placed Kent (34.5%). Their 8.3% outright title probability is the highest of any team in the competition. They reach the final in just under 1-in-6 simulations (16.3%).

The South Group sets up as Surrey’s to lose. They top the group in 26.8% of simulations. Will Jacks was one of just five players to reach a T20 Blast century in 2025, underlining Surrey’s batting depth. If they come through the South, they arrive at the quarter-finals as the competition’s best-rated side. Whether they can finally add a second title is the biggest question the model cannot answer.

The Central Group: Somerset Defending, Birmingham Bears Challenging

Somerset arrive as defending champions and joint-most decorated side in the competition’s history – three titles in 2005, 2023 and 2025. The model rates them as genuine contenders to make it four, and they face the challenge of the Birmingham Bears – 2014 winners themselves – in what looks like the Central Group’s defining rivalry.

Somerset: 37.1% qualify | 14.7% Finals Day | 7.8% title
Birmingham Bears: 38.9% qualify | 14.0% Finals Day | 7.1% title

Statistically it’s neck and neck – both finish top of the group in roughly 19-20% of simulations. But the historical pedigree gives Somerset the edge in terms of expectation. Will Smeed scored 620 runs in the 2025 Blast, second only to Toby Albert‘s competition-leading 633. Tom Kohler-Cadmore added 557 more, making Somerset’s top order one of the most productive batting units in English domestic T20 cricket last season.

The rest of the Central Group – Glamorgan (4.9%), Worcestershire (5.6%), Gloucestershire (5.0%) and Northamptonshire (5.1%) – trail well behind. Worth noting: Riley Meredith – the Blast’s leading wicket-taker in 2025 with 28 wickets – returns to Somerset this season but misses the first six games due to international commitments. He will be a significant addition when he arrives back.

The North Group: Durham and Lancashire Lead, But Nobody Dominates

The North Group is the most open of the three. Durham and Lancashire sit at the top, but the gap to the rest is small. Yorkshire (33.5%), Leicestershire (32.9%), Nottinghamshire (30.5%) and Derbyshire (28.5%) all remain within striking distance on qualification odds.

That spread is the story. The North Group has no Surrey-style standout. Any two of these six sides could realistically take the automatic spots – which means early form and the schedule will matter more here than anywhere else in the competition.

Durham top the group in 19.9% of simulations, barely ahead of Lancashire (18.5%). Lancashire are the North’s most dangerous side on title odds (6.9%) – they won the Blast in 2015 and know what Finals Day demands. This is a group where NRR and fixture scheduling could prove decisive.

The Dark Horses

Three teams the model fancies at a price:

Hampshire (6.1%) – The most underrated side in the competition. Three-time winners (2010, 2012, 2022), they know how to peak at Finals Day. Toby Albert led the entire Blast in 2025 with 633 runs and James Vince chipped in with 527. The model has them at 31.9% to qualify from the South. If Surrey slip, Hampshire are the most dangerous beneficiary.

Glamorgan (4.9%) – The Central Group’s most dangerous outsider. Never won the Blast, but if Somerset or the Bears slip early, Glamorgan have the quality to capitalise. Their road to Finals Day runs through two teams who will be watching each other.

Kent (4.8%) – Two-time winners (2007, 2021) sitting at 34.5% to qualify from the South. In a group with Surrey, Sussex and Hampshire, every game counts – but Kent have shown before they can win tournaments from this kind of field.

The Statz model flags a value angle too: the League Probability tool shows each team’s outright odds alongside their Statz-implied probability. Where the model rates a team’s chances higher than Bet365’s implied probability, the edge badge turns green. Several of these sides carry green badges on day one.

Who Will Struggle

Middlesex are the clear outlier – and in the competition as a whole. The model gives them just an 18.5% chance of qualifying and a 2.6% outright title probability. They finish bottom of the South Group in 28.3% of simulations. Middlesex won the Blast back in 2008 – but in a group now containing Surrey, Sussex, Kent and Hampshire, recapturing that form looks a stretch.

Derbyshire (4.7%) and Essex (4.3%) sit at the lower end of their groups, though neither is hopeless. Aneurin Donald (Derbyshire) hit the most sixes of any batter in the 2025 Blast with 30 – the kind of match-winning upside that can change a group-stage campaign in a week. Essex won in 2019 and 2024, so they know their way to Finals Day too.

The Full Picture

What the Numbers Mean

These probabilities are pre-tournament estimates. The model has no group-stage results to work with yet – everything runs on team ratings. As the Blast progresses and real points and NRR feed into each simulation, the picture will sharpen quickly. A strong first week for a dark horse will see their probability jump. A slow start from Surrey will tighten the South Group considerably.

The value is in tracking those movements. The Statz League Probability tool updates after every match – so if you want to know who the model backs to win the T20 Blast at any point this summer, that is where to look.

Surrey are the model’s pick – but they’ve only won it once in 23 years of trying. Somerset the defending champions. Hampshire the dark horse with genuine pedigree. And Middlesex are in for a long few weeks.

The Blast starts Friday. Let the simulations run.

All probabilities from the Statz League Probability model – 5,000 iterations, updated after every completed match. View the full tool at statz.ai/cricket/projections/league-probability.