Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire Preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz

Southern Brave host Welsh Fire at The Rose Bowl on Wednesday for the 2nd Match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 22 July.

This is a season opener for both sides, with the group stage just underway. Southern Brave are seeded 3rd in the standings, whilst Welsh Fire sit 4th – both teams will be eager to make an early statement. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Southern Brave vs Welsh Fire fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

The Rose Bowl has hosted 10 Hundred matches since 2021, producing an average match total of 256.6 runs. The pitch is tagged as Bowler Friendly by Statz – expect tight cricket and a premium on bowling accuracy.

Seam bowlers have dominated at this ground, taking 69.5% of wickets at an economy rate of 10.11, whilst spinners account for 24.6% of dismissals at 9.47. The average first-innings score sits at 140.9, suggesting teams will need to be patient early and build momentum through the middle overs.

Southern Brave’s home record at The Rose Bowl is formidable – they have won 13 of 20 matches (65%) since 2021, averaging 17.2 runs per over when batting. Welsh Fire, by contrast, have struggled away from home, winning just one of five matches at this venue (20%) with an average score of 18.1 runs per over.

Head-to-Head

Southern Brave hold a commanding advantage in this fixture. In 10 meetings, Brave have won eight to Welsh Fire’s one, with one no-result. More tellingly, Brave have won four of the last five meetings, including a 4-run victory on 28 August 2025 when Brave posted 167/7 and Fire managed 163/6.

The pattern is clear – Southern Brave have the wood on Welsh Fire, particularly at home where the gap widens further.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections favour Southern Brave, though this remains a competitive contest.

If Southern Brave bat first: Projected first-innings total of 136.9, match total of 261.9. Win probability – SB 49.1%, WF 44.4%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 116 to 158.

If Welsh Fire bat first: Projected first-innings total of 131.9, match total of 256.8. Win probability – SB 56.7%, WF 36.8%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 107 to 156.

The model rates Southern Brave’s bowling significantly higher – if they bowl first, their win probability jumps to 56.7%. Both projected match totals (257-262) sit just above the venue average of 256.6, suggesting the bowler-friendly pitch will be a leveller.

Predicted XIs

Both sides are fielding season openers with no confirmed XI yet. These are likely lineups drawn from verified squad lists.

Southern Brave (Likely XI)

1. David Miller
2. Chris Jordan
3. Adil Rashid
4. Marcus Stoinis
5. Jofra Archer
6. Daniel Worrall
7. Tom Abell
8. Saif Zaib
9. Luke Wood
10. Jamie Smith (wk)
11. Michael Pepper

Welsh Fire (Likely XI)

1. Joe Root
2. Chris Woakes
3. Lockie Ferguson
4. Matthew Short
5. Tom Kohler-Cadmore
6. Philip Salt
7. Jordan Clark
8. Dillon Pennington
9. Samuel Cook
10. Jordan Cox
11. Rachin Ravindra

These are likely lineups based on verified squad lists. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Key Players

Chris Jordan (Southern Brave)

The all-rounder brings genuine match-winning ability. In head-to-head meetings, Jordan has 85 runs with 8 sixes and 7 wickets across four matches – a rare combination of explosive batting and penetrative bowling. The Statz projections rate him at 88 Dream11 points when Brave bat first, making him a cornerstone of their lineup.

Joe Root (Welsh Fire)

The England star is projected for 23.7 runs at a strike rate of 135.4 when Brave bat first, and 25.1 runs when Fire bat first. Root’s consistency and ability to accelerate in the middle overs make him Welsh Fire’s most reliable run-maker. In the H2H, he has 112 runs across three matches.

Jordan Cox (Welsh Fire)

The wicket-keeper is projected for 29.1 runs at a strike rate of 158.4 when Fire bat first – the highest projected individual total in the Welsh Fire lineup. Cox’s aggressive approach and ability to score quickly in the powerplay make him a key asset for Fire’s chase scenarios.

Ben Kellaway (Welsh Fire)

The all-rounder projects at 89.4 Dream11 points when Fire bat first, the highest-rated player in either lineup. Kellaway offers balance with projected runs of 16.4 and nearly a wicket per match, making him a dual-threat option in the middle order.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast with temperatures around 20 degrees Celsius. Humidity sits at 45% with a light westerly breeze at 4.2 km/h. No rain is expected – ideal conditions for a full 100-ball match.

Verdict

Southern Brave are the lean pick here at 52.9% win probability. The Statz model gives them a significant edge if they bowl first (56.7%), and their home record at The Rose Bowl – 13 wins from 20 matches – is a powerful indicator. Welsh Fire’s away record at this venue (1-4) is a major concern, and whilst they have quality in Joe Root and Jordan Cox, Southern Brave’s bowling attack led by Chris Jordan and Jofra Archer should prove too strong on a bowler-friendly pitch.

The head-to-head record (8-1 to Brave) reinforces this view. Indicative odds have Southern Brave at around 1.70 and Welsh Fire at 2.10.

Bet Builder Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:

• Chris Jordan 1+ wicket – The Brave all-rounder is projected at 1.34 wickets when Brave bat first. A reliable wicket-taker in this fixture.
• Jordan Cox 20+ runs – Projected at 29.1 runs when Fire bat first. Cox’s aggressive approach makes him a strong candidate for runs.
• Ben Kellaway 20+ runs – Projected at 16.4 runs, but his all-round value and recent form suggest upside in this line.
• Jofra Archer 1+ wicket – Projected at 1.4 wickets when Brave bat first. A penetrative bowler on a bowler-friendly pitch.