CSK vs Gujarat Titans Preview – IPL 2026 | Statz

Chennai Super Kings host Gujarat Titans at the MA Chidambaram Stadium on Thursday evening in a match that carries real playoff weight. 19:30 IST (15:00 BST). CSK sit 6th in the IPL 2026 table with their top-four hopes fading fast, while GT come in as the second-placed side with momentum firmly on their side. Three wins from their last five, playing with authority. This is a must-win in all but name for the home side.

The Venue

The MA Chidambaram Stadium – Chepauk – is one of the slower, lower surfaces in the IPL. Statz data across the last 30 T20s here shows an average first innings of 184.9 and an average match total of 361.6. Teams batting first win just 35% of the time – the ground historically favours spin and chasing sides.

Pitch tag: Balanced pitch. The surface tends to slow as the match progresses, making spin a key weapon in the second half of each innings. Expect the team winning the toss to think hard about bowling first.

Form and Table

Chennai Super Kings – 6th, P13 W6 L7, 12pts. Last 5: L W W W L (reading recent to oldest). They’ve gone L-L-W-W-W in their last five, which tells its own story – two straight defeats heading into this one. Lost to SRH on 18 May (180/7 vs 181/5) and to LSG on 15 May (187/5 vs 188/3). Before that they beat LSG (208/5 vs 203/8), DC (159/2 vs 155/7) and MI (160/2 vs 159/7). CSK have 1 game remaining after this. They need to win and rely on results elsewhere. Season win rate: 46.2%.

Gujarat Titans – 2nd, P13 W8 L5, 16pts. Last 5: L W W W W. Four wins on the spin coming in, with just a slip at KKR (218/4 vs 247/2 on 16 May) breaking the run. Before that: beat SRH (168/5 vs 86 all out on 12 May), RR (229/4 vs 152 on 9 May), PBKS (167/6 vs 163/9 on 3 May) and RCB (158/6 vs 155 on 30 Apr). Already in a comfortable position. Season win rate: 61.5%.

IPL 2026 Top 4 (Regular Season):

1. Royal Challengers Bengaluru – 18pts (W9 L4)
2. Gujarat Titans – 16pts (W8 L5)
3. Sunrisers Hyderabad – 16pts (W8 L5)
4. Rajasthan Royals – 14pts (W7 L6)

CSK have 1 game remaining. At 12pts they need a win here and significant results to go their way elsewhere. GT need a result to consolidate their spot.

Head-to-Head

9 meetings since 2022 (Statz data). GT lead 5-4. The most recent: GT won by 8 wickets on 26 Apr 2026 at Narendra Modi Stadium – CSK posted 158/7 and GT chased it down in 16.4 overs (162/2). CSK’s last H2H win was by 83 runs on 25 May 2025 – they put up 230/5 and bowled GT out for 147.

At Chepauk specifically: CSK won by 63 runs on 26 Mar 2024 (206/6 vs 143/8 GT). The home ground has been kind to CSK in this fixture – they won both Chepauk meetings in the data (26 Mar 2024 and 23 May 2023).

Statz Projections

Full projections for this fixture: statz.ai/cricket/fixtures/69660/chennai-super-kings-vs-gujarat-titans/projections

If CSK bat first: CSK 42.7% win probability, GT 55.3%. Projected first innings: 177. Range P10/P90: 150-203. Projected match total: 343.

If GT bat first: CSK 49.8% / GT 48.2% – effectively a coin flip. GT project at 177.8 batting first. Either way, the model lands on a match total around 343-344, comfortably above Chepauk’s recent 10-game average of 361.6 – suggesting conditions are expected to be slightly tighter than the long-run average.

Contextualising: the projected first innings of 177 sits below the 30-game venue average of 184.9, which fits the balanced pitch tag and the model’s read of current conditions.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – IPL 2026 Top 5:

• Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – 579 runs
• Mitchell Marsh (LSG) – 563 runs
• Heinrich Klaasen (SRH) – 555 runs
• Sai Sudharsan (GT) – 554 runs
• Shubman Gill (GT) – 552 runs

Purple Cap – IPL 2026 Top 5:

• Bhuvneshwar Kumar (RCB) – 24 wickets
• Kagiso Rabada (GT) – 21 wickets
• Anshul Kamboj (CSK) – 20 wickets
• Jofra Archer (RR) – 18 wickets
• Eshan Malinga (SRH) – 17 wickets

CSK Season Leaders:

• Runs: Sanju Samson – 477 runs, avg 36.69, HS 115
• Wickets: Anshul Kamboj – 20 wickets, avg 1.54 per game, best 3

GT Season Leaders:

• Runs: Sai Sudharsan – 554 runs, avg 42.62, HS 100
• Wickets: Kagiso Rabada – 21 wickets, avg 1.62 per game, best 3

Predicted XIs

Based on last playing XIs. CSK XI from 18 May 2026 vs Sunrisers Hyderabad. GT XI from 16 May 2026 vs Kolkata Knight Riders. Check the fixture page for toss and any late changes.

Chennai Super Kings: Sanju Samson (wk), Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Urvil Patel, Kartik Sharma, Dewald Brevis, Shivam Dube, Prashant Veer, Akeal Hosein, Noor Ahmad, Anshul Kamboj, Spencer Johnson

Gujarat Titans: Shubman Gill (c), Sai Sudharsan, Jos Buttler (wk), Jason Holder, Washington Sundar, Nishant Sindhu, Rashid Khan, Kagiso Rabada, Arshad Khan, Sai Kishore, Mohammed Siraj

Dream11 Tips

Based on Statz projected Dream11 points for players confirmed in recent XI only.

Captain (C): Jason Holder – 108.7 projected Dream11 pts. The GT all-rounder leads all in_recent_xi players by a significant margin – 13 wickets this season at 1.72 per game average, and a death-batting threat too.

Vice Captain (VC): Sai Sudharsan – 83.9 projected Dream11 pts. Leads GT’s run charts with 554 runs at 42.62, three scores of 50+ in his last three innings. The standout batter in this fixture.

Next picks for reference:

• Spencer Johnson – 81.5 pts
• Kagiso Rabada – 80.9 pts
• Sanju Samson – 71.9 pts

Key Players

Sai Sudharsan (GT) – The form batter of the tournament. 554 runs at 42.62, hitting 80% of his last 5 innings for 20+ and 80% for 30+. Three consecutive half-centuries (55, 61, 53) coming in. The Statz best bets model has him flagged Over 31.5 Runs at 1.83 (edge +10.1%) – and his season hit rate at that threshold sits at 53.8%, rising to 80% in his last five games. Don’t leave him out.

Dewald Brevis (CSK) – The headline Statz best bet this fixture. Over 17.5 Runs at 1.83 carries a model edge of +20% – the highest confidence angle of the three flagged bets. Projected at 28.3 runs. Last three: 44, 25, 10. Has scored 20+ in 40% of innings this season but projects significantly higher given the matchup. In the CSK recent XI. Worth backing at the odds.

Jason Holder (GT) – The model’s top Dream11 pick (108.7 pts) for a reason. 13 wickets this season at a pace that suits Chepauk conditions at the death. Last three outings: 3, 3, 0 wickets – in form. Batting in the lower order he can chip in runs too. Outstanding double-up value in the GT XI.

Anshul Kamboj (CSK) – IPL 2026 Purple Cap third with 20 wickets in 13 games. Taking 2, 0, 1 wickets in his last three. Chepauk suits seamers who hit the deck hard in the powerplay. CSK’s most reliable bowling asset this season – and at home, this is his best-case ground.

Conditions

Clear sky at match start. Temperature 35 degrees Celsius, wind 5.9 km/h from the south. No rain risk. Should be a full 40-over contest.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Verdict: Back GT to win. Statz has Gujarat Titans at 55.3% win probability if CSK bat first – and given the toss dynamics at Chepauk (35% bat-first win rate), the smart play is to field. GT’s bowling attack – Rabada, Holder, Rashid Khan, Siraj – looks equipped for these conditions. CSK are out of form, losing two straight, and playing for survival. GT have the personnel, the form and the composure. At 1.68 with bet365, GT are the value side.

Bet builder angles – build your bet here:

• Dewald Brevis Over 17.5 Runs @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – Statz edge +20%, projected 28.3 runs. Highest confidence angle in this fixture.
• Sai Sudharsan Over 31.5 Runs @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – Statz edge +10.1%, projected 43.7 runs. 80% hit rate in last 5 games, three straight fifties.
• GT to win @ 1.68 (bet365) – model preferred outcome, form advantage clear.
• Kagiso Rabada 1+ wickets – 21 wickets this season, averaging 1.62 per game over 13 outings. Chepauk opening spells reward pace bowlers.

Odds correct at time of writing. Check the Statz projections page for live updates before placing bets.