Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 2nd Test Prediction (17 Nov): Projections & Preview

The Gaddafi Stadium is a high-scoring venue by Test standards. Across the 2 matches in the Statz dataset here, the average match total is 1,059 and the average first-innings score is 350.5. Teams batting first have won 55.7% of those matches – a modest but real edge for the side that wins the toss and chooses to bat.

Spin dominates at this ground. Spinners have taken 58.9% of wickets at an economy of 3.06, while seamers account for 41.1% at 2.68. With the pitch rated as Balanced and spin so prominent, the new ball offers early seam movement on a fresh surface – but batting last on a wearing Lahore track against quality spin is a different proposition entirely. The toss data leans towards batting first, and the spin-heavy conditions only reinforce that call as the match progresses.

Pakistan’s record at this ground since 2021 reads W1 L1 from 2 matches. Sri Lanka have no matches here in the Statz dataset. Note that the Gaddafi Stadium figures come from just 2 matches, so treat them as directional rather than definitive.

Pakistan – 9th in the WTC (P10 W2 L7 D1, 7.5%)

Pakistan have drawn their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 home, 4 away. The draw in Rawalpindi steadied the ship after a difficult run, but Pakistan’s WTC cycle has been hard going – they sit bottom of the table on 7.5% points percentage after a deduction.

• 9 Nov 2026 vs Sri Lanka (H): D – PAK 434/9 & 284/8, SL 446
• 9 Sep 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 133 & 449, ENG 453 & 130/2
• 27 Aug 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 110 & 194, ENG 290 & 208
• 19 Aug 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 171 & 135, ENG 409
• 2 Aug 2026 vs West Indies (A): W – PAK 387 & 77/2, WI 344 & 117

Sri Lanka – 7th in the WTC (P7 W1 L2 D4, 33.33%)

Sri Lanka have drawn their last 2. Their last 5 matches were played: 3 away, 2 home. Four draws from seven WTC matches tells a story of a side that competes hard but struggles to force results.

• 9 Nov 2026 vs Pakistan (A): D – SL 446, PAK 434/9 & 284/8
• 23 Aug 2026 vs India (H): D – SL 290 & 429/9, IND 503/9
• 15 Aug 2026 vs India (H): L – SL 283 & 206, IND 462 & 193
• 3 Jul 2026 vs West Indies (A): D – SL 549/9 & 251/9, WI 499 & 109/0
• 25 Jun 2026 vs West Indies (A): L – SL 308 & 101, WI 626/9

WTC Table Snapshot

In ICC World Test Championship meetings, Pakistan have been the dominant side. Across 7 matches in this competition, Pakistan lead 4-1 with 2 draws. The most recent meetings, newest first:

• 9 Nov 2026, Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: Match drawn
• 24 Jul 2023, Sinhalese Sports Club: Pakistan won by an innings and 222 runs
• 16 Jul 2023, Galle International Stadium: Pakistan won by 4 wickets
• 24 Jul 2022, R.Premadasa Stadium: Sri Lanka won by 246 runs
• 16 Jul 2022, Galle International Stadium: Pakistan won by 4 wickets

Among the leading performers across those 7 meetings, Babar Azam tops Pakistan’s run-scoring charts with 399 runs in 7 matches, ahead of Saud Shakeel (358 in 3) and Salman Agha (298 in 5) – all three are in the current squad. With the ball, Shaheen Afridi leads with 15 wickets in 3 matches, and Saqib Khan has taken 7 wickets in 1 match – both in the current squad.

For Sri Lanka, Dhananjaya de Silva is the standout with 527 runs in 7 matches, followed by Dinesh Chandimal (268 in 7) and Kusal Mendis (184 in 7). Among the wicket-takers, Prabath Jayasuriya has 13 wickets in 4 matches and Ramesh Mendis 12 in 4 – though Ramesh Mendis is not in the current squad and will not be a factor here. Asitha Fernando has 7 wickets in 3 matches and is in the current squad.

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip. The projected match total of 1,038 is 21 runs below the Gaddafi Stadium average of 1,059.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first innings of 332.7 (17.8 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 350.5), projected match total of 1,041. Win probabilities – Pakistan 43.9%, Sri Lanka 41.6%, draw 14.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 163 to 543.

If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first innings of 325.7 (24.8 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 350.5), projected match total of 1,034. Win probabilities – Pakistan 43.8%, Sri Lanka 41.6%, draw 14.6%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 160 to 532.

The draw sits at 14.5% across both scenarios – a real possibility in a match where both sides have shown a tendency to grind. The wide P10-P90 range is a reminder that Test cricket can swing dramatically. Check the live projections page on Statz for updates as the match approaches.

All figures below cover the ICC World Test Championship 2025/2027 cycle and rank each side’s own players only.

Pakistan – Run-Scorers

Runs: Babar Azam – 620 runs, 77.5 a match, HS 115 | Shan Masood – 546 runs, 68.25 a match, HS 112 | Saud Shakeel – 538 runs, 67.25 a match, HS 190 | Salman Agha – 420 runs, 52.5 a match, HS 97 | Azan Awais – 409 runs, 51.13 a match, HS 118

Pakistan – Wicket-Takers

Wickets: Mohammad Abbas – 33 wickets, 4.71 a match, best 9 | Khurram Shahzad – 18 wickets, 4.5 a match, best 8 | Noman Ali – 18 wickets, 6 a match, best 10

Sri Lanka – Run-Scorers

Runs: Sonal Dinusha – 626 runs, 104.33 a match, HS 236 | Dhananjaya de Silva – 503 runs, 71.86 a match, HS 167 | Kamindu Mendis – 430 runs, 61.43 a match, HS 128 | Pathum Nissanka – 374 runs, 124.67 a match, HS 211 | Lahiru Udara – 355 runs, 59.17 a match, HS 188

Sri Lanka – Wicket-Takers

Wickets: Asitha Fernando – 30 wickets, 4.29 a match, best 6 | Prabath Jayasuriya – 18 wickets, 3.6 a match, best 7 | Milan Rathnayake – 14 wickets, 3.5 a match, best 5

Pakistan (based on XI vs Sri Lanka, 09 Nov 2026)

1. Azan Awais
2. Tayyab Arif
3. Mohammad Taha
4. Babar Azam (c)
5. Saud Shakeel
6. Salman Agha
7. Ghazi Ghori (wk)
8. Arafat Minhas
9. Raza Ullah
10. Saqib Khan
11. Mohammad Abbas

Sri Lanka (based on XI vs Pakistan, 09 Nov 2026)

1. Lahiru Udara
2. Pasindu Sooriyabandara
3. Dinesh Chandimal
4. Kamindu Mendis
5. Dhananjaya de Silva
6. Kusal Mendis (c) (wk)
7. Sonal Dinusha
8. Milan Rathnayake
9. Lahiru Kumara
10. Asitha Fernando
11. Dilshan Madushanka

These lineups are based on the most recent starting XI for each side. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Sonal Dinusha (SL) – projected 171 points. The Sri Lanka all-rounder leads the WTC 2025/2027 cycle run-scoring charts among his side’s players with 626 runs at 104.33 a match, and contributes with the ball too. A dual-threat option who is the standout captain pick.

Vice Captain: Kamindu Mendis (SL) – projected 159.4 points. With 430 runs at 61.43 a match this cycle and genuine wicket-taking ability, Kamindu provides all-round value. He has scored 30 or more runs in 60% of his last 5 matches this cycle.

Also consider:

• Dhananjaya de Silva (SL) – 503 runs this cycle at 71.86 a match, 100% hit rate for 20+ runs in his last 5 matches
• Babar Azam (PAK) – 620 runs this cycle at 77.5 a match, 80% hit rate for 30+ runs in his last 5
• Mohammad Abbas (PAK) – 33 wickets this cycle at 4.71 a match, 80% hit rate for 2+ wickets in his last 5

Babar Azam (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s leading run-scorer in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 620 runs at 77.5 a match and a high score of 115. In this fixture’s head-to-head history, Babar tops Pakistan’s charts with 399 runs across 7 WTC meetings. He has scored 20 or more runs in 80% of his last 5 matches this cycle, and 30 or more in 87.5% of his matches overall. On a Lahore surface that can reward patience, he is Pakistan’s most important batter.

Sonal Dinusha (Sri Lanka)

The numbers are extraordinary. Dinusha leads Sri Lanka’s run-scoring charts this WTC cycle with 626 runs at 104.33 a match and a high score of 236. His last three scores of 100, 103 and 20 show a player capable of match-defining innings. He has scored 20 or more runs in 100% of his last 5 matches. With the ball he adds further value, projected at nearly 2 wickets per match if Pakistan bat first. He is the key man for Sri Lanka.

Mohammad Abbas (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker this WTC cycle with 33 wickets in 7 matches at 4.71 a match – a best of 9 in a single innings. Abbas has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches this cycle, and 2 or more in 85.7% of them. His last three returns of 4, 1 and 2 wickets underline his consistency. On a Lahore pitch where seam bowlers have taken 41.1% of wickets, Abbas is the man Pakistan will look to for early breakthroughs.

Asitha Fernando (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s leading wicket-taker this WTC cycle with 30 wickets in 7 matches at 4.29 a match. Fernando has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches and 2 or more in 100% of them as well – a remarkable consistency record. His last three returns of 2, 4 and 3 wickets show he is in fine form. In a series decider, his ability to take wickets in clusters could prove decisive.

Pakistan are the narrow pick at 43.9%, with Sri Lanka at 41.6% and the draw at 14.5%. The Statz model rates this as a coin-flip, and it is hard to argue otherwise – both sides are evenly matched on the projections, and the draw remains a genuine possibility at 14.5%.

Pakistan’s 4-1 head-to-head advantage in WTC meetings and home conditions give them a slim edge. The Lahore surface should suit their spin options as the match wears on, and with Babar Azam in form and Mohammad Abbas relentless with the ball, they have the tools to force a result. Sri Lanka, though, have shown real resilience – four draws in seven WTC matches is not a side that folds easily, and Sonal Dinusha and Dhananjaya de Silva can bat for long periods. Nothing is guaranteed in a Test match, and this one could go any of three ways.

No best bets are available from the Statz model for this fixture. For real-time hit rates and player prop data, head to the Statz bet builder. Based on the hit-rate data in the payload, the following angles are worth exploring:

• Mohammad Abbas 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across all matches this cycle. He has not been wicketless in a single Test this WTC campaign.
• Mohammad Abbas 2+ wickets – 85.7% hit rate in his last 5 matches. The most consistent bowling line in this fixture.
• Asitha Fernando 2+ wickets – 100% hit rate across all 7 matches this cycle. Sri Lanka’s most reliable wicket-taker.
• Dhananjaya de Silva 20+ runs – 100% hit rate in his last 5 matches, 85.7% for the cycle. Sri Lanka’s most consistent batter with the bat.
• Babar Azam 30+ runs – 87.5% hit rate across the cycle, 80% in his last 5. Pakistan’s key batting line.

All odds are indicative. Use the Statz bet builder for the latest data before placing any bets.

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka in the 2nd Test?

A: The Statz model gives Pakistan a narrow edge at 43.9%, with Sri Lanka at 41.6% and the draw at 14.5%. It is a genuine coin-flip, but Pakistan’s home advantage and stronger head-to-head record in WTC meetings make them the marginal pick. Nothing is guaranteed in a five-day Test.

Q: What is the projected score for the 2nd Test at Gaddafi Stadium?

A: The projected match total is 1,038 – 21 runs below the Gaddafi Stadium average of 1,059. If Pakistan bat first, the projected first innings is 332.7; if Sri Lanka bat first, it is 325.7. Both are slightly below the ground’s first-innings average of 350.5.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss in the 2nd Test?

A: The toss is a 50-50 call by nature, but the data suggests batting first is the preferred option at Gaddafi Stadium, where teams batting first have won 55.7% of matches. The pitch is rated Balanced, but spin becomes increasingly influential as the match progresses – making batting first the sensible call.

Q: Is Pakistan a good bet to win this Test?

A: Pakistan are the marginal favourite at 43.9% win probability, backed by home conditions, a 4-1 WTC head-to-head advantage and strong individual performers in Babar Azam and Mohammad Abbas. However, Sri Lanka are close behind at 41.6% and have shown they can grind out results. Far from settled either way – the draw at 14.5% is also a live option.