MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds Preview – The Hundred 2026 | Statz

MI London host Sunrisers Leeds at Kennington Oval on Tuesday for the opening match of The Hundred 2026. First ball is at 17:30 BST on 21 July. This is a season opener for both franchises – neither side has played a competitive match in this tournament yet, making this a genuine fresh start for the campaign.

Both teams come into this contest level on zero points, with the entire tournament ahead of them. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the MI London vs Sunrisers Leeds fixture page on Statz.

The Venue

Kennington Oval is a fortress for home sides in The Hundred. Across the last 24 matches at this ground, the average match total stands at 296.5 with an average first-innings score of 154.6. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz, offering something for both bat and ball.

Seam bowlers have been dominant here, taking 64.9% of wickets at an economy rate of 11.05, while spinners account for 32.5% of dismissals at 10.99. Boundaries make up 61.2% of runs – a high proportion that rewards aggressive cricket. MI London’s home record at the Oval since 2021 reads an impressive W16 L3 NR1 from 20 matches, with an average score of 19.7 overs per innings. Sunrisers Leeds have visited just three times away from home, winning once, losing once and recording a no-result.

Head-to-Head

Sunrisers Leeds hold the edge in the all-time series, winning three of the last five meetings to MI London’s two. The most recent clash came on 23 August 2025 at this very ground, where Leeds posted 198/4 batting first and bowled London out for 182/7 to win by 16 runs. That victory underlines Leeds’ ability to compete at the Oval despite their poor away record overall.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections make this a genuine coin-flip contest.

If MI London bat first: Projected first-innings total of 154.9, match total of 298.7. Win probability – MI London 46.6%, Sunrisers Leeds 46.9%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 132 to 178.

If Sunrisers Leeds bat first: Projected first-innings total of 152.2, match total of 296.1. Win probability – MI London 52.3%, Sunrisers Leeds 41.2%, tie/no-result 6.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 128 to 176.

The model rates MI London’s bowling attack highly – they gain a 11.1 percentage point advantage if they bowl second. Both projected match totals (296-299) sit just below the Kennington Oval average of 296.5, suggesting a tight contest where execution will be everything.

Likely XIs

With both teams starting their Hundred campaign fresh, the lineups below are drawn from their verified squad lists and represent the most likely XI based on recent form and squad composition.

MI London (Likely XI)

1. Jason Roy
2. James Vince
3. Will Jacks
4. Ollie Pope
5. Nicholas Pooran
6. Sam Curran
7. Tom Curran
8. Rashid Khan
9. Olly Stone
10. Trent Boult
11. Richard Gleeson

Sunrisers Leeds (Likely XI)

1. Zak Crawley
2. Ryan Rickelton
3. Harry Brook
4. Tom Alsop
5. Mitchell Marsh
6. Benny Howell
7. Ed Barnard
8. Matty Potts
9. Brydon Carse
10. Reece Topley
11. Abrar Ahmed

These lineups are drawn from verified squad lists. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Sam Curran (MI London) – projected 119.2 points when MI London bat first. The all-rounder is the standout fantasy asset in this match, with projected runs of 26.5 at a strike rate of 157.9 plus 1.52 projected wickets. His dual threat across bat and ball makes him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Harry Brook (Sunrisers Leeds) – projected 69.9 points when Leeds bat first. The Yorkshire batter has 113 runs in four recent matches with six sixes, showing explosive form. Projected for 33 runs with a strike rate of 165.6 when Leeds bat second.

Also consider:

• Rashid Khan (MI London) – projected 86.5 points – the Afghanistan star brings wicket-taking and lower-order hitting
• Will Jacks (MI London) – projected 78.9 points – 74 runs in four recent matches with aggressive intent
• Tom Curran (MI London) – projected 98.6 points – 66 runs and 3 wickets in recent form, genuine all-rounder value

Key Players

Sam Curran (MI London)

The English all-rounder is the most important player on the field. In recent matches, Curran has posted 116 runs with eight sixes plus six wickets across four games – a devastating combination. His projected 26.5 runs and 1.52 wickets make him the standout fantasy asset. At a strike rate of 157.9, he brings explosive batting allied to genuine bowling threat.

Harry Brook (Sunrisers Leeds)

The Yorkshire batter has been in outstanding form, accumulating 113 runs across four recent matches with six sixes and nine fours. Brook’s strike rate of 165.6 and projected 33 runs show a player primed to dominate. He is Sunrisers’ most consistent run-scorer and a genuine match-winner.

Rashid Khan (MI London)

The Afghanistan leg-spinner brings a different dimension to MI London’s attack. Projected for 1.48 wickets and 9.9 runs with a strike rate of 146.8, Rashid offers genuine all-round value. His ability to contain in the middle overs and strike late with the bat makes him a key factor in tight contests.

Tom Curran (MI London)

The younger Curran brother has posted 66 runs and three wickets in recent matches, showing consistency across both disciplines. Projected for 17.4 runs and 1.42 wickets, he provides balance to the MI London lineup and can be a match-changer in either direction.

Conditions

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Kennington Oval with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start. Humidity sits at 42% with light winds at 4.3 km/h from the south-west. No rain is expected. Conditions should remain favourable for cricket throughout the evening.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is a finely balanced season opener. The Statz projections make it essentially 50-50, with MI London gaining a slight edge if they bowl second (52.3% win probability). However, Sunrisers Leeds’ recent record against London – winning three of the last five meetings including the most recent clash at this ground – suggests they have the measure of their opponents.

MI London’s home advantage is significant. They have won 16 of their last 20 matches at Kennington Oval since 2021, a win rate of 80%. That fortress status is hard to ignore. However, Leeds’ ability to post 198 at this venue in their last meeting shows they are not intimidated by the ground.

I am leaning MI London here. The home advantage, the strength of their squad and the slight projection edge if they bowl second all favour the hosts. Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds and hit rates on this fixture.

Bet Builder Angles

The Statz bet builder offers value on several player performance lines:

• Tom Alsop Over 14.5 Runs – The Sunrisers batter carries a 64.8% true probability against 54.6% implied odds at 1.83 (Ladbrokes/Coral). This represents a 10.2 percentage point edge – genuine value for a player in a balanced matchup.
• Sam Curran 25+ Runs – With projected 26.5 runs and a strike rate of 157.9, the MI London all-rounder is primed for a big score at home.
• Harry Brook 25+ Runs – Projected 33 runs and a 165.6 strike rate make the Sunrisers batter a strong captain or vice-captain play.
• Rashid Khan 1+ Wicket – Projected 1.48 wickets suggest the Afghanistan spinner will have an impact on the match.